Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens
TOR
MTL
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
44.6%
ensemble · TOR favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
35%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MTL vs TOR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
132
projections · 111 high confidence
Shots on goal
- Darren RaddyshTOR3.7± 1.8high
- Auston MatthewsTOR3.6± 2.5high
- Cole CaufieldMTL2.8± 1.4high
Goals
- Cole CaufieldMTL0.5± 0.5high
- John TavaresTOR0.5± 0.7high
- William NylanderTOR0.5± 0.7high
Points
- William NylanderTOR1.2± 1.4high
- John TavaresTOR1.0± 1.1high
- Cole CaufieldMTL0.9± 0.7high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands