Washington Mystics at Connecticut Sun
WSH
6-7
CON
2-14
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
ashington Mystics visit Connecticut Sun Friday at 6/26 - 7:30 PM EDT. WSH is 3-4 in their last 7.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Season series
WSH leads series 1-0
WSH88@CON81WSH@CONtodayCON@WSHupcomingCON@WSHupcomingScouting report
WSH @ CON
Tale of the tape
6-7
Record
2-14
#5
Conf rank
#7
-4.3
Pt diff
-11.0
W1
Streak
L6
4-6
Last 10
1-9
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Team stats
WSH
Away
Stat
CON
Home
44
FG %
42
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
43.9%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
31%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CON vs WSH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Sonia CitronWSH16.4± 10.2low
- Kiki IriafenWSH14.5± 9.3low
- Shakira AustinWSH14.2± 7.6low
Rebounds
- Aneesah MorrowCON10.2± 5.1medium
- Kiki IriafenWSH8.7± 6.2low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.1± 4.2low
Assists
- Leila LacanCON5.0± 2.8low
- Sonia CitronWSH3.6± 2.8low
- Alicia FlorezWSH3.4± 3.4low
Blocks
- Brittney GrinerCON1.4± 1.6low
- Shakira AustinWSH1.4± 1.4low
- Saniya RiversCON0.9± 0.9medium
Steals
- Leila LacanCON1.7± 1.5low
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.3± 1.6low
- Aaliyah EdwardsCON1.0± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
WSH
league avg
CON
44.5%
FG%
44.4
42.1%
29.3%
3PT %
33.1
26.3%
81.4
PPG
85.3
77.9
18.8
Assists / G
18.0
18.7
16.3
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶14.3