Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at UTA?

The model favors UTA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4VGK

VGK

39-26-17

UTA

43-33-6

NHLFri, May 1FinalSeriesUTA wins series 2-1VegasVGK -120

VGK · top performer

Mitch Marner

RW · #93

3Points

—

SOG

UTA · top performer

Clayton Keller

RW · #9

0Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	1	0	2	2	1	2	17:04
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:13
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	1	2	2	2	0	15:11
J. EichelC · #9	0	1	-1	0	0	0	0	17:13
T. HertlC · #48	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	10:23
B. HowdenC · #21	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	14:18
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	0	0	5	2	0	10:05
M. MarnerRW · #93	2	1	3	7	0	1	0	17:19
C. SissonsC · #10	1	0	2	1	5	0	0	15:54
R. SmithRW · #19	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:26
C. SmithRW · #22	1	0	2	1	6	0	0	15:56
M. StoneRW · #61	0	1	1	1	1	0	2	15:14

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	0	1	1	0	3	2	20:55
N. HanifinD · #15	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	23:36
K. KorczakD · #6	0	1	1	1	4	0	0	11:42
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	13:42
B. McNabbD · #3	0	1	2	3	2	2	0	24:47
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	1	1	1	0	4	0	24:30

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HartG · #79	23	1	22	.957	59:32

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CarconeLW · #53	0	0	-1	1	6	1	0	17:01
L. CooleyC · #92	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	17:19
L. CrouseLW · #67	0	0	-1	0	3	1	0	18:00
D. GuentherRW · #11	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	17:11
C. KellerRW · #9	0	0	-2	7	2	2	0	20:40
A. KerfootC · #15	0	0	-1	1	2	0	2	15:01
J. McBainC · #22	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	9:42
J. PeterkaRW · #77	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:36
N. SchmaltzC · #8	0	0	-2	0	4	0	0	20:37
K. StenlundC · #82	0	0	-2	2	0	2	0	14:42
B. TanevLW · #13	0	0	-2	1	3	1	0	9:24
K. YamamotoRW · #56	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	9:42

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ColeD · #28	0	0	-2	2	0	1	0	17:51
S. DurziD · #50	0	0	-1	1	0	2	0	15:42
J. MarinoD · #6	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	19:43
N. SchmidtD · #88	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	18:33
M. SergachevD · #98	0	1	-1	2	2	2	0	22:28
M. WeegarD · #52	0	1	-1	0	6	1	0	19:12

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. VejmelkaG · #70	25	4	21	.840	59:21

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

UTA

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

VGK wins series 4-2

Apr 20

UTA2@

VGK4

Apr 22

UTA3@

VGK2

Apr 25

VGK2@

UTA4

Apr 28

VGK5@

UTA4

Apr 30

UTA4@

VGK5

May 2

VGK5@

UTA1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGK-12055%

UTA+10050%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 66 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat UTA 5-1. M. Marner led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 7 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
VGK	1	1	3	5
UTA	0	0	1	1

Period scoring

VGK won 3 · UTA won 0

VGK

UTA

Play-by-play · 370 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
VGK 5·UTA 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VGK 5·UTA 1
3rd·19:41
JJ Peterka Snap Shot Wide Left
·
VGK 5·UTA 1
3rd·19:20
Kaedan Korczak hit JJ Peterka
·
VGK 5·UTA 1
3rd·19:02
Colton Sissons faceoff won against Alexander Kerfoot
·
VGK 5·UTA 1
3rd·19:02
Goalie Stopped
VGK 5·UTA 1
3rd·19:00
Mikhail Sergachev Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 5·UTA 1
3rd·18:47
Dylan Guenther shot blocked by Keegan Kolesar
·
VGK 5·UTA 1
3rd·18:42
Logan Cooley Snap Shot Wide Right
·
VGK 5·UTA 1
3rd·18:20
Dylan Guenther Snap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 5·UTA 1
3rd·18:09
Takeaway by Logan Cooley
VGK 5·UTA 1
3rd·17:50
Brett Howden faceoff won against Nick Schmaltz
·
VGK 5·UTA 1
3rd·17:50
Goalie Stopped
VGK 5·UTA 1
3rd·17:48
Clayton Keller Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 5·UTA 1
3rd·17:41
Logan Cooley faceoff won against Nic Dowd
·
VGK 5·UTA 1
3rd·17:41
Rasmus Andersson Delaying Game - Puck over glass
VGK 5·UTA 1
3rd·17:35
Nic Dowd faceoff won against Logan Cooley
·
VGK 5·UTA 1
3rd·17:35
Puck in Netting
VGK 5·UTA 1
3rd·17:31
Brandon Tanev Tip-In Wide Right
·
VGK 5·UTA 1
3rd·17:25
Giveaway by Kaedan Korczak
VGK 5·UTA 1
3rd·16:24
Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Alexander Kerfoot
·
VGK 5·UTA 1
3rd·16:24
Cole Smith Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none
· ·
VGK 5·UTA 1
3rd·16:22
Giveaway by Dylan Guenther
VGK 4·UTA 1
3rd·16:18
Clayton Keller Snap Shot Above Crossbar
·
VGK 4·UTA 1
3rd·16:12
Mikhail Sergachev shot blocked by Shea Theodore
·
VGK 4·UTA 1
3rd·15:59
Brayden McNabb hit Logan Cooley
·
VGK 4·UTA 1
3rd·15:55
Dylan Guenther shot blocked by Shea Theodore
·
VGK 4·UTA 1
3rd·15:45
Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Colton Sissons
·
VGK 4·UTA 1
3rd·15:45
Icing
VGK 4·UTA 1
3rd·15:40
Takeaway by Brayden McNabb
VGK 4·UTA 1

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·VGK -120/UTA +100

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights went into Utah Mammoth and beat them, 5–1.

VGK -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Mitch Marner · VGK17:300.7657.6%66.9%17:30 TOI · 0.76 iXG · 57.6% CF · 66.9% xGF
Clayton Keller · UTA21:060.4155.3%45.8%21:06 TOI · 0.41 iXG · 55.3% CF · 45.8% xGF
Colton Sissons · VGK16:180.3735.5%41.5%16:18 TOI · 0.37 iXG · 35.5% CF · 41.5% xGF
Tomas Hertl · VGK10:240.3352.4%49.1%10:24 TOI · 0.33 iXG · 52.4% CF · 49.1% xGF
Pavel Dorofeyev · NYR17:360.2955.9%69.2%17:36 TOI · 0.29 iXG · 55.9% CF · 69.2% xGF
Brayden McNabb · VGK25:180.2834.8%48.6%25:18 TOI · 0.28 iXG · 34.8% CF · 48.6% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Carter Hart · VGK22–1.957+0.8022–1 · .957 SV% · +0.80 GSAx
Karel Vejmelka · UTA21–4.840-1.1521–4 · .840 SV% · -1.15 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.6%

ensemble · UTA favored

Elo Static
56.6%
P(UTA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
56.6%
P(UTA win)
14%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
56.6%
P(UTA win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at UTA?: The model favors UTA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Vegas Golden KnightsUtah Mammoth

Elsewhere in the NHL