NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1TB

50-26-6

MTL

48-24-10

NHLFri, May 1FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasTB -120

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning went into Montreal Canadiens and beat them, 1–0 in overtime.

MTL +1.5 cashed (TB won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

Gage Goncalves

C · #93

1Points

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

Ivan Demidov

RW · #93

0Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BjorkstrandRW · #22	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	12:24
A. CirelliC · #71	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	23:11
Z. GirgensonsC · #28	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	12:44
G. GoncalvesC · #93	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	15:26
Y. GourdeC · #37	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	13:53
J. GuentzelC · #59	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	20:55
B. HagelLW · #38	0	1	1	3	2	1	0	29:05
D. JamesC · #17	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	13:36
N. KucherovRW · #86	0	0	0	6	1	0	2	22:50
N. PaulLW · #20	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	12:25
C. PerryRW · #10	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	9:43
B. PointC · #21	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	17:21

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CernakD · #81	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	23:10
C. D'AstousD · #51	0	0	0	4	4	2	2	18:29
E. LillebergD · #78	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	16:26
R. McDonaghD · #27	0	0	0	0	1	5	0	21:52
J.J. MoserD · #90	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	25:34
D. RaddyshD · #43	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	28:11

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. VasilevskiyG · #88	30	0	30	1.000	69:03

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	0	0	0	3	9	0	0	18:53
Z. BolducRW · #76	0	0	-1	3	3	1	0	15:39
C. CaufieldRW · #13	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	19:41
K. DachC · #77	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	12:09
P. DanaultC · #24	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	19:31
I. DemidovRW · #93	0	0	0	5	1	1	2	17:38
J. EvansC · #71	0	0	0	2	6	2	0	16:08
B. GallagherRW · #11	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	5:39
A. NewhookC · #15	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	14:31
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	0	0	0	2	3	2	0	22:31
N. SuzukiC · #14	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	24:55
A. TexierLW · #85	0	0	-1	3	1	1	2	17:05

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CarrierD · #45	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	24:29
K. GuhleD · #21	0	0	-1	1	3	2	2	24:14
L. HutsonD · #48	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	30:46
M. MathesonD · #8	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	28:47
J. StrubleD · #47	0	0	0	0	5	0	2	12:53
A. XhekajD · #72	0	0	-1	1	7	1	0	11:46

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DobesG · #75	33	1	32	.970	69:03

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Playoff series

Series tied 3-3

Apr 19

MTL4@

TB3

Apr 21

MTL2@

TB3

Apr 24

TB2@

MTL3

Apr 26

TB3@

MTL2

Apr 29

MTL3@

TB2

May 1

TB1@

MTL0today

May 3

MTL2@

TB1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TB-12055%

MTL+10050%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 45 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

G. Goncalves

Top skater

1 G · 2 SOG

A. Vasilevskiy

GoaltenderShutout

30 SV · 0 GA · 1.000

MTL

I. Demidov

Top skater

5 SOG

J. Dobes

Goaltender

32 SV · 1 GA · .970

How it ended

TB beat MTL 1-0. G. Goncalves led the way — 1 G · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
TB	0	0	0	1	1
MTL	0	0	0	0	0

Period scoring

TB won 1 · MTL won 0

MTL

Play-by-play · 392 plays

period

event

player

1st OT·9:03
Game End
TB 1·MTL 0
1st OT·9:03
End of OT
TB 1·MTL 0
1st OT·9:03
Gage Goncalves Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dominic James (1), Brandon Hagel (2)
· ·
TB 1·MTL 0
1st OT·9:00
Gage Goncalves Tip-In saved by Jakub Dobes
·
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·8:34
Kirby Dach shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand
·
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·8:32
Emil Lilleberg hit Mike Matheson
·
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·7:54
Jake Evans hit Nikita Kucherov
·
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·7:39
Jake Evans faceoff won against Jake Guentzel
·
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·7:39
Goalie Stopped
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·7:37
Nikita Kucherov Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·7:36
Giveaway by Nick Suzuki
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·7:30
Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
·
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·7:15
Giveaway by Nick Suzuki
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·6:41
Lane Hutson Slap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·5:47
Nick Suzuki shot blocked by Erik Cernak
·
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·5:38
Juraj Slafkovský Snap Shot Wide Right
·
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·5:35
Giveaway by Brandon Hagel
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·5:30
Anthony Cirelli faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·5:30
Nikita Kucherov Tripping against Alexandre Carrier
·
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·5:21
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·5:21
Puck in Netting
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·5:17
Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Lane Hutson
·
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·5:15
Darren Raddysh Slap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·5:00
Takeaway by Ryan McDonagh
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·4:48
Giveaway by Dominic James
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·4:44
Josh Anderson hit Oliver Bjorkstrand
·
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·4:18
Oliver Bjorkstrand Tip-In Wide Left
·
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·4:13
Oliver Bjorkstrand hit Arber Xhekaj
·
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·4:09
Giveaway by Alex Newhook
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·4:08
Charle-Edouard D'Astous hit Alex Newhook
·
TB 0·MTL 0

Team stats

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 5.5·TB -120/MTL +100

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 skaters with EDGE

Josh AndersonMTL · RW
BURSTS7699
Lane HutsonMTL · D
BURSTS2598
Arber XhekajMTL · D
SHOT MPH98.598
Cole CaufieldMTL · RW
iXG33.798
Mike MathesonMTL · D
DIST MI62.996

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.5%

ensemble · MTL favored

Elo Static
57.6%
P(MTL win)
45%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
57.6%
P(MTL win)
11%
weight
Xg Blend
58.1%
P(MTL win)
44%
weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

MTL vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

138

projections · 123 high confidence

Shots on goal

Nikita KucherovTB
3.5± 2.3high
Brandon HagelTB
3.2± 1.4high
Cole CaufieldMTL
2.8± 1.4high

Goals

Brandon HagelTB
0.6± 0.8high
Cole CaufieldMTL
0.5± 0.5high
Alex NewhookMTL
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Nikita KucherovTB
1.1± 0.9high
Brandon HagelTB
1.0± 0.9high
Jake GuentzelTB
1.0± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands