Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at MTL?

The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1TB

50-26-6

MTL

48-24-10

NHLFri, May 1FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasTB -120

TB · top performer

Gage Goncalves

C · #93

1Points

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

Ivan Demidov

RW · #93

0Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BjorkstrandRW · #22	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	12:24
A. CirelliC · #71	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	23:11
Z. GirgensonsC · #28	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	12:44
G. GoncalvesC · #93	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	15:26
Y. GourdeC · #37	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	13:53
J. GuentzelC · #59	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	20:55
B. HagelLW · #38	0	1	1	3	2	1	0	29:05
D. JamesC · #17	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	13:36
N. KucherovRW · #86	0	0	0	6	1	0	2	22:50
N. PaulLW · #20	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	12:25
C. PerryRW · #10	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	9:43
B. PointC · #21	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	17:21

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CernakD · #81	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	23:10
C. D'AstousD · #51	0	0	0	4	4	2	2	18:29
E. LillebergD · #78	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	16:26
R. McDonaghD · #27	0	0	0	0	1	5	0	21:52
J.J. MoserD · #90	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	25:34
D. RaddyshD · #43	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	28:11

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. VasilevskiyG · #88	30	0	30	1.000	69:03

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	0	0	0	3	9	0	0	18:53
Z. BolducRW · #76	0	0	-1	3	3	1	0	15:39
C. CaufieldRW · #13	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	19:41
K. DachC · #77	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	12:09
P. DanaultC · #24	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	19:31
I. DemidovRW · #93	0	0	0	5	1	1	2	17:38
J. EvansC · #71	0	0	0	2	6	2	0	16:08
B. GallagherRW · #11	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	5:39
A. NewhookC · #15	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	14:31
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	0	0	0	2	3	2	0	22:31
N. SuzukiC · #14	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	24:55
A. TexierLW · #85	0	0	-1	3	1	1	2	17:05

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CarrierD · #45	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	24:29
K. GuhleD · #21	0	0	-1	1	3	2	2	24:14
L. HutsonD · #48	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	30:46
M. MathesonD · #8	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	28:47
J. StrubleD · #47	0	0	0	0	5	0	2	12:53
A. XhekajD · #72	0	0	-1	1	7	1	0	11:46

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DobesG · #75	33	1	32	.970	69:03

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

Series tied 3-3

Apr 19

MTL4@

TB3

Apr 21

MTL2@

TB3

Apr 24

TB2@

MTL3

Apr 26

TB3@

MTL2

Apr 29

MTL3@

TB2

May 1

TB1@

MTL0today

May 3

MTL2@

TB1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TB-12055%

MTL+10050%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 68 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat MTL 1-0. G. Goncalves led the way — 1 G · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
TB	0	0	0	1	1
MTL	0	0	0	0	0

Period scoring

TB won 1 · MTL won 0

MTL

Play-by-play · 392 plays

period

event

player

1st OT·9:03
Game End
TB 1·MTL 0
1st OT·9:03
End of OT
TB 1·MTL 0
1st OT·9:03
Gage Goncalves Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dominic James (1), Brandon Hagel (2)
· ·
TB 1·MTL 0
1st OT·9:00
Gage Goncalves Tip-In saved by Jakub Dobes
·
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·8:34
Kirby Dach shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand
·
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·8:32
Emil Lilleberg hit Mike Matheson
·
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·7:54
Jake Evans hit Nikita Kucherov
·
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·7:39
Jake Evans faceoff won against Jake Guentzel
·
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·7:39
Goalie Stopped
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·7:37
Nikita Kucherov Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·7:36
Giveaway by Nick Suzuki
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·7:30
Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
·
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·7:15
Giveaway by Nick Suzuki
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·6:41
Lane Hutson Slap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·5:47
Nick Suzuki shot blocked by Erik Cernak
·
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·5:38
Juraj Slafkovský Snap Shot Wide Right
·
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·5:35
Giveaway by Brandon Hagel
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·5:30
Anthony Cirelli faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·5:30
Nikita Kucherov Tripping against Alexandre Carrier
·
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·5:21
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·5:21
Puck in Netting
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·5:17
Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Lane Hutson
·
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·5:15
Darren Raddysh Slap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·5:00
Takeaway by Ryan McDonagh
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·4:48
Giveaway by Dominic James
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·4:44
Josh Anderson hit Oliver Bjorkstrand
·
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·4:18
Oliver Bjorkstrand Tip-In Wide Left
·
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·4:13
Oliver Bjorkstrand hit Arber Xhekaj
·
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·4:09
Giveaway by Alex Newhook
TB 0·MTL 0
1st OT·4:08
Charle-Edouard D'Astous hit Alex Newhook
·
TB 0·MTL 0

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 5.5·TB -120/MTL +100

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning went into Montreal Canadiens and beat them, 1–0 in overtime.

MTL +1.5 cashed (TB won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.4%

ensemble · MTL favored

Elo Static
57.6%
P(MTL win)
45%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
57.6%
P(MTL win)
10%
weight
Xg Blend
57.2%
P(MTL win)
45%
weight

Disagreement

0.20 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at MTL?: The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

MTL vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 111 high confidence

Shots on goal

Nikita KucherovTB
3.5± 2.3high
Brandon HagelTB
3.2± 1.4high
Cole CaufieldMTL
2.8± 1.4high

Goals

Brandon HagelTB
0.6± 0.8high
Cole CaufieldMTL
0.5± 0.5high
Alex NewhookMTL
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Nikita KucherovTB
1.1± 0.9high
Brandon HagelTB
1.0± 0.9high
Jake GuentzelTB
1.0± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Tampa Bay LightningMontreal Canadiens

Elsewhere in the NHL