Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at NYI?

The model favors NYI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3PHI

PHI

38-26-12

NYI

42-30-5

NHLFri, Apr 3FinalSeriesPHI wins series 3-1VegasNYI -155

PHI · top performer

Matvei Michkov

RW · #39

3Points

—

SOG

NYI · top performer

Simon Holmstrom

RW · #92

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BumpLW · #20	1	1	3	1	0	2	0	9:09
N. CatesLW · #27	0	1	3	1	3	0	0	16:06
S. CouturierC · #14	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	21:08
C. DvorakC · #22	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	17:18
T. FoersterRW · #71	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	15:06
L. GlendeningC · #41	0	0	0	0	2	1	2	15:03
G. HathawayRW · #19	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	13:03
T. KonecnyRW · #11	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	15:18
P. MartoneRW · #94	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	15:13
M. MichkovRW · #39	1	2	3	3	0	0	2	11:43
O. TippettRW · #74	1	0	0	3	3	2	0	17:33
T. ZegrasC · #46	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:03

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DrysdaleD · #9	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	18:55
N. JuulsenD · #47	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	10:07
R. RistolainenD · #55	0	0	3	0	1	4	0	22:02
T. SanheimD · #6	1	1	3	3	0	2	0	24:36
N. SeelerD · #24	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	17:26
C. YorkD · #8	0	0	1	0	2	2	0	23:11

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. VladarG · #80	22	1	21	.955	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarzalC · #13	0	1	-1	1	0	0	0	24:06
C. CizikasC · #53	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	12:04
M. GatcombC · #16	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	10:38
E. HeinemanLW · #51	0	0	-2	1	4	0	0	15:53
S. HolmstromRW · #92	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	20:09
B. HorvatC · #14	0	0	-1	4	0	1	0	22:09
A. LeeLW · #27	0	0	-1	3	1	0	0	17:37
K. MacLeanC · #32	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	11:15
J. PageauC · #44	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	20:01
O. PalatLW · #81	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	9:49
C. RitchieC · #64	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	15:08
B. SchennC · #10	0	0	-3	0	2	0	0	14:51

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BoqvistD · #34	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	17:40
S. MayfieldD · #24	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:30
A. PelechD · #3	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	17:28
R. PulockD · #6	0	0	-2	2	1	4	0	19:28
M. SchaeferD · #48	0	0	-3	2	2	3	0	28:43
C. SoucyD · #4	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	12:41

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. SorokinG · #30	21	4	17	.810	52:50

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

NYI

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

PHI wins series 3-1

Oct 25

NYI3@

PHI4

Nov 28

PHI4@

NYI3

Jan 27

NYI4@

PHI0

Apr 3

PHI4@

NYI1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYI -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI+13043%

NYI-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗

Line movement · 62 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat NYI 4-1. M. Michkov led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
PHI	2	1	1	4
NYI	0	1	0	1

Period scoring

PHI won 2 · NYI won 0

PHI

NYI

Play-by-play · 315 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
PHI 4·NYI 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
PHI 4·NYI 1
3rd·19:29
Calum Ritchie faceoff won against Trevor Zegras
·
PHI 4·NYI 1
3rd·19:29
Icing
PHI 4·NYI 1
3rd·18:30
Adam Boqvist shot blocked by Rasmus Ristolainen
·
PHI 4·NYI 1
3rd·17:45
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Noah Cates
·
PHI 4·NYI 1
3rd·17:45
Icing
PHI 4·NYI 1
3rd·17:42
Owen Tippett Wrist Shot Wide Left
PHI 4·NYI 1
3rd·17:27
Noah Cates shot blocked by Matthew Schaefer
·
PHI 4·NYI 1
3rd·17:23
Travis Konecny Wrist Shot Wide Left
PHI 4·NYI 1
3rd·17:18
Giveaway by Bo Horvat
PHI 4·NYI 1
3rd·17:03
Anders Lee shot blocked by Cam York
·
PHI 4·NYI 1
3rd·17:01
Mathew Barzal shot blocked by Nick Seeler
·
PHI 4·NYI 1
3rd·16:55
Giveaway by Bo Horvat
PHI 4·NYI 1
3rd·16:48
Takeaway by Matthew Schaefer
PHI 4·NYI 1
3rd·16:46
Matthew Schaefer hit Christian Dvorak
·
PHI 4·NYI 1
3rd·16:42
Christian Dvorak shot blocked by Matthew Schaefer
·
PHI 4·NYI 1
3rd·16:34
Matthew Schaefer Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
PHI 4·NYI 1
3rd·16:28
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Sean Couturier
·
PHI 4·NYI 1
3rd·16:28
Icing
PHI 4·NYI 1
3rd·16:03
Bo Horvat shot blocked by Nick Seeler
·
PHI 4·NYI 1
3rd·15:50
Giveaway by Travis Sanheim
PHI 4·NYI 1
3rd·15:43
Ryan Pulock shot blocked by Travis Sanheim
·
PHI 4·NYI 1
3rd·15:19
Ondrej Palat hit Rasmus Ristolainen
·
PHI 4·NYI 1
3rd·15:16
Sean Couturier faceoff won against Jean-Gabriel Pageau
·
PHI 4·NYI 1
3rd·15:16
Goalie Stopped
PHI 4·NYI 1
3rd·15:14
Simon Holmstrom Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 4·NYI 1
3rd·14:58
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Sean Couturier
·
PHI 4·NYI 1
3rd·14:58
Icing
PHI 4·NYI 1
3rd·14:54
Alex Bump Wrist Shot Wide Right
PHI 4·NYI 1

Betting line

NYI -1.5·O/U 5.5·PHI +130/NYI -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

hiladelphia Flyers went into New York Islanders and beat them, 4–1.

PHI +1.5 cashed (NYI lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Owen Tippett · PHI17:480.5355.6%72.0%17:48 TOI · 0.53 iXG · 55.6% CF · 72.0% xGF
Anders Lee · NYI18:000.5264.6%53.7%18:00 TOI · 0.52 iXG · 64.6% CF · 53.7% xGF
Tyson Foerster · PHI15:180.4748.4%74.5%15:18 TOI · 0.47 iXG · 48.4% CF · 74.5% xGF
Christian Dvorak · PHI17:240.4339.0%52.0%17:24 TOI · 0.43 iXG · 39.0% CF · 52.0% xGF
Matvei Michkov · PHI11:360.3845.0%68.2%11:36 TOI · 0.38 iXG · 45.0% CF · 68.2% xGF
Mathew Barzal · NYI24:000.3168.8%61.9%24:00 TOI · 0.31 iXG · 68.8% CF · 61.9% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Dan Vladar · PHI21–1.955+1.1721–1 · .955 SV% · +1.17 GSAx
Ilya Sorokin · NYI17–4.810-1.6617–4 · .810 SV% · -1.66 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.2%

ensemble · NYI favored

Elo Static
60.2%
P(NYI win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
60.2%
P(NYI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
60.2%
P(NYI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-155

Close price

-155

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at NYI?: The model favors NYI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Philadelphia FlyersNew York Islanders

Elsewhere in the NHL

Blues6Ducks2Final