Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at ANA?

The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4STL

STL

32-31-12

ANA

41-30-5

NHLFri, Apr 3FinalSeriesSTL wins series 2-1VegasANA -142

STL · top performer

Dylan Holloway

LW · #81

2Points

—

SOG

ANA · top performer

Ryan Poehling

C · #25

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BerggrenRW · #29	1	0	2	3	0	0	0	13:52
J. DrouinLW · #92	0	0	1	2	0	2	0	14:14
D. DvorskyRW · #54	0	1	1	1	0	1	2	14:51
D. HollowayLW · #81	2	0	1	5	2	2	0	21:07
J. KyrouRW · #25	0	1	1	5	1	1	0	13:06
J. NeighboursLW · #63	0	2	2	1	0	1	0	15:59
J. SnuggerudRW · #21	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	19:32
O. StenbergC · #28	0	0	-2	1	1	1	0	10:30
O. SundqvistC · #70	0	0	-2	0	1	1	2	10:08
P. SuterC · #22	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	15:41
R. ThomasC · #18	1	2	1	1	0	0	0	18:20
N. WalkerLW · #26	0	0	-2	1	6	1	0	9:58

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BrobergD · #6	0	2	1	1	1	0	0	23:04
C. FowlerD · #17	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20:19
T. LindsteinD · #41	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	17:01
L. MaillouxD · #23	0	0	1	1	3	0	2	19:11
C. ParaykoD · #55	1	1	2	2	1	2	0	22:38
T. TuckerD · #75	0	1	0	0	2	1	0	12:55

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. HoferG · #30	27	2	25	.926	59:34

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CarlssonC · #91	0	0	-1	4	0	1	0	17:47
N. GaucherC · #41	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	9:05
M. GranlundC · #64	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	20:32
A. KillornLW · #17	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	17:38
C. KreiderLW · #20	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	15:47
M. McTavishC · #23	0	1	0	2	2	0	2	14:29
R. PoehlingC · #25	1	1	0	3	1	0	0	12:01
B. SenneckeRW · #45	0	0	0	1	2	1	2	17:19
T. TerryRW · #19	0	0	-1	4	0	0	2	16:31
F. VatranoRW · #77	0	0	-1	2	3	1	0	12:37
J. VielLW · #28	1	0	0	2	2	0	0	10:57
T. WasheC · #42	0	0	-1	0	4	1	0	13:21

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CarlsonD · #74	0	0	-3	3	0	2	2	21:57
D. HellesonD · #14	0	1	2	0	0	1	0	18:09
J. LaCombeD · #2	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	23:15
I. MooreD · #3	0	0	-3	2	0	0	0	10:50
J. TroubaD · #65	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	20:37
O. ZellwegerD · #51	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	19:21

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. DostalG · #1	29	6	23	.793	59:43

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

ANA

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

STL wins series 2-1

Dec 2

ANA4@

STL1

Mar 9

STL4@

ANA0

Apr 4

STL6@

ANA2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ANA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

STL+12045%

ANA-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗

Line movement · 50 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

STL beat ANA 6-2. D. Holloway led the way — 2 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
STL	3	2	1	6
ANA	2	0	0	2

Period scoring

STL won 3 · ANA won 0

STL

ANA

Play-by-play · 326 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
STL 6·ANA 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
STL 6·ANA 2
3rd·19:58
Giveaway by Nathan Gaucher
STL 6·ANA 2
3rd·19:12
Jackson LaCombe hit Nathan Walker
·
STL 6·ANA 2
3rd·19:11
Nathan Walker hit Mason McTavish
·
STL 6·ANA 2
3rd·19:06
Oskar Sundqvist shot blocked by Jackson LaCombe
·
STL 6·ANA 2
3rd·18:37
Otto Stenberg Deflected Wide Left
·
STL 6·ANA 2
3rd·18:35
Otto Stenberg Deflected saved by Lukas Dostal
·
STL 6·ANA 2
3rd·18:02
Dylan Holloway Tip-In Wide Right
·
STL 6·ANA 2
3rd·17:09
Nathan Gaucher faceoff won against Robert Thomas
·
STL 6·ANA 2
3rd·17:09
Goalie Stopped
STL 6·ANA 2
3rd·17:07
Jordan Kyrou Snap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
STL 6·ANA 2
3rd·17:00
Olen Zellweger hit Jonathan Drouin
·
STL 6·ANA 2
3rd·16:30
Jordan Kyrou hit Nathan Gaucher
·
STL 6·ANA 2
3rd·16:14
Dalibor Dvorsky faceoff won against Tim Washe
·
STL 6·ANA 2
3rd·16:14
TV Timeout
STL 6·ANA 2
3rd·16:14
Mason McTavish Hooking against Theo Lindstein
·
STL 6·ANA 2
3rd·16:05
Ian Moore shot blocked by Dalibor Dvorsky
·
STL 6·ANA 2
3rd·16:03
Alex Killorn shot blocked by Tyler Tucker
·
STL 6·ANA 2
3rd·16:01
Mason McTavish Tip-In saved by Joel Hofer
·
STL 6·ANA 2
3rd·15:20
Mason McTavish Slap Shot Wide Left
·
STL 6·ANA 2
3rd·14:51
Jackson LaCombe Snap Shot Wide Right
·
STL 6·ANA 2
3rd·13:47
Oskar Sundqvist faceoff won against Mikael Granlund
·
STL 6·ANA 2
3rd·13:47
Jimmy Snuggerud Hooking against Leo Carlsson
·
STL 6·ANA 2
3rd·13:23
Leo Carlsson Snap Shot Off Crossbar
·
STL 6·ANA 2
3rd·12:37
Giveaway by Beckett Sennecke
STL 6·ANA 2
3rd·12:22
Beckett Sennecke hit Jake Neighbours
·
STL 6·ANA 2
3rd·11:47
Frank Vatrano hit Logan Mailloux
·
STL 6·ANA 2
3rd·11:34
Nathan Gaucher hit Cam Fowler
·
STL 6·ANA 2
3rd·11:27
Tim Washe hit Tyler Tucker
·
STL 6·ANA 2

Betting line

ANA -1.5·O/U 6.5·STL +120/ANA -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

t. Louis Blues went into Anaheim Ducks and beat them, 6–2.

STL +1.5 cashed (ANA lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.9%

ensemble · ANA favored

Elo Static
62.9%
P(ANA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
62.9%
P(ANA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
62.9%
P(ANA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-142

Close price

-142

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at ANA?: The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

St. Louis BluesAnaheim Ducks

Elsewhere in the NHL

Flyers4Islanders1Final