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FINAL+4STL
STL

STL

32-31-12

62
ANA

ANA

41-30-5

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLFri, Apr 3FinalSeriesSTL wins series 2-1VegasANA -142

Recap · NHL

t. Louis Blues went into Anaheim Ducks and beat them, 6–2.

STL +1.5 cashed (ANA lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

STL · top performer

STL
Robert Thomas

Robert Thomas

C · #18

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

ANA · top performer

ANA
Ryan Poehling

Ryan Poehling

C · #25

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · St. Louis Blues at Anaheim Ducks · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
6
2
STL32-31-12ANA41-30-5
STL

STL

32-31-12

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
ANA

ANA

41-30-5

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

10

Season series

STL wins series 2-1

Dec 2ANAANA4@STLSTL1
Mar 9STLSTL4@ANAANA0
Apr 4STLSTL6@ANAANA2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ANA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

STLSTL+12045%
ANAANA-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

STL beat ANA 6-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
STL3216
ANA2002

Period scoring

STL won 3 · ANA won 0

3
2

1

2
0

2

1
0

3

STL
ANA

Play-by-play · 326 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    STL 6·ANA 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    STL 6·ANA 2

  3. 3rd·19:58

    Giveaway by Nathan Gaucher

    STL 6·ANA 2

  4. 3rd·19:12

    Jackson LaCombe hit Nathan Walker

    ·

    STL 6·ANA 2

  5. 3rd·19:11

    Nathan Walker hit Mason McTavish

    ·

    STL 6·ANA 2

  6. 3rd·19:06

    Oskar Sundqvist shot blocked by Jackson LaCombe

    ·

    STL 6·ANA 2

  7. 3rd·18:37

    Otto Stenberg Deflected Wide Left

    ·

    STL 6·ANA 2

  8. 3rd·18:35

    Otto Stenberg Deflected saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    STL 6·ANA 2

  9. 3rd·18:02

    Dylan Holloway Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    STL 6·ANA 2

  10. 3rd·17:09

    Nathan Gaucher faceoff won against Robert Thomas

    ·

    STL 6·ANA 2

  11. 3rd·17:09

    Goalie Stopped

    STL 6·ANA 2

  12. 3rd·17:07

    Jordan Kyrou Snap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    STL 6·ANA 2

  13. 3rd·17:00

    Olen Zellweger hit Jonathan Drouin

    ·

    STL 6·ANA 2

  14. 3rd·16:30

    Jordan Kyrou hit Nathan Gaucher

    ·

    STL 6·ANA 2

  15. 3rd·16:14

    Dalibor Dvorsky faceoff won against Tim Washe

    ·

    STL 6·ANA 2

  16. 3rd·16:14

    TV Timeout

    STL 6·ANA 2

  17. 3rd·16:14

    Mason McTavish Hooking against Theo Lindstein

    ·

    STL 6·ANA 2

  18. 3rd·16:05

    Ian Moore shot blocked by Dalibor Dvorsky

    ·

    STL 6·ANA 2

  19. 3rd·16:03

    Alex Killorn shot blocked by Tyler Tucker

    ·

    STL 6·ANA 2

  20. 3rd·16:01

    Mason McTavish Tip-In saved by Joel Hofer

    ·

    STL 6·ANA 2

  21. 3rd·15:20

    Mason McTavish Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    STL 6·ANA 2

  22. 3rd·14:51

    Jackson LaCombe Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    STL 6·ANA 2

  23. 3rd·13:47

    Oskar Sundqvist faceoff won against Mikael Granlund

    ·

    STL 6·ANA 2

  24. 3rd·13:47

    Jimmy Snuggerud Hooking against Leo Carlsson

    ·

    STL 6·ANA 2

  25. 3rd·13:23

    Leo Carlsson Snap Shot Off Crossbar

    ·

    STL 6·ANA 2

  26. 3rd·12:37

    Giveaway by Beckett Sennecke

    STL 6·ANA 2

  27. 3rd·12:22

    Beckett Sennecke hit Jake Neighbours

    ·

    STL 6·ANA 2

  28. 3rd·11:47

    Frank Vatrano hit Logan Mailloux

    ·

    STL 6·ANA 2

  29. 3rd·11:34

    Nathan Gaucher hit Cam Fowler

    ·

    STL 6·ANA 2

  30. 3rd·11:27

    Tim Washe hit Tyler Tucker

    ·

    STL 6·ANA 2

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

ANA

Home

29

Shots

27

50.0

PCT

0.0

8

PIM

10

33

Faceoffs W

31

14

Blocks

10

16

Giveaways

16

6

Takeaways

4

Betting line

ANA -1.5·O/U 6.5·STL +120/ANA -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • John CarlsonANA · D
    SHOT MPH102.799+
  • Beckett SenneckeANA · RW
    SHOT MPH96.199+
  • Philip BrobergSTL · D
    BURSTS15898
  • Ryan PoehlingANA · C
    SKATE MPH23.498
  • Jimmy SnuggerudSTL · RW
    SHOT MPH95.697

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · ANA favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-142

Close price

-142

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR