NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1DAL

STL

19-24-8

DAL

29-14-9

NHLFri, Jan 23FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasDAL -162

Recap · NHL

allas Stars held off St. Louis Blues, 3–2.

STL +1.5 cashed (DAL won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

STL · top performer

Pavel Buchnevich

LW · #89

2Points

—

SOG

DAL · top performer

Roope Hintz

C · #24

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
J. BerggrenRW · #29	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	15:16
N. BjugstadC · #77	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	13:21
P. BuchnevichLW · #89	1	1	1	2	1	0	2	19:42
D. DvorskyRW · #54	1	0	-1	1	1	0	0	13:21
R. FabbriC · #9	0	0	0	0	2	1	2	12:00
M. JosephRW · #71	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	11:29
J. KyrouRW · #25	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	15:49
J. NeighboursLW · #63	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	17:19
B. SchennC · #10	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	16:23
J. SnuggerudRW · #21	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	15:36
O. StenbergC · #28	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	15:45
A. ToropchenkoRW · #13	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	11:55

Defensemen

defenses box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
P. BrobergD · #6	0	0	-1	3	3	0	2	23:50
J. FaulkD · #72	0	0	0	2	2	0	2	20:13
C. FowlerD · #17	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	19:32
L. MaillouxD · #23	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	14:48
C. ParaykoD · #55	0	0	-1	1	2	3	0	21:53
T. TuckerD · #75	0	0	1	3	4	0	0	14:36

Goalies

goalies box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	SA	GA	SV	SV%	TOI
J. BinningtonG · #50	19	3	16	.842	59:00

Forwards

forwards box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
O. BackC · #10	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:11
J. BennLW · #14	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	11:22
C. BlackwellC · #15	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:38
M. BourqueC · #22	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:54
M. DucheneC · #95	1	0	-1	1	0	0	0	12:59
R. FaksaC · #12	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	12:12
R. HintzC · #24	0	2	1	1	4	1	0	20:12
J. HryckowianC · #49	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	12:04
W. JohnstonC · #53	1	1	-1	4	0	0	2	16:21
M. RantanenRW · #96	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	22:28
J. RobertsonLW · #21	1	1	1	3	1	1	0	22:54
S. SteelC · #18	0	0	-1	2	3	0	0	15:57

Defensemen

defenses box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
K. CapobiancoD · #20	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	10:50
T. HarleyD · #55	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	26:02
M. HeiskanenD · #4	0	1	0	2	1	1	0	27:00
E. LindellD · #23	0	0	-1	2	0	5	0	22:16
N. LundkvistD · #5	0	0	0	2	1	1	2	19:16
I. LyubushkinD · #46	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	7:07

Goalies

goalies box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	SA	GA	SV	SV%	TOI
J. OettingerG · #29	22	2	20	.909	59:48

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Oct 18

DAL1@

STL3

Jan 24

STL2@

DAL3today

Jan 28

DAL4@

STL3

Feb 5

STL4@

DAL5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

STL+13642%

DAL-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat STL 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
STL	1	1	0	2
DAL	1	1	1	3

Period scoring

STL won 0 · DAL won 1

STL

DAL

Play-by-play · 281 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
STL 2·DAL 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
STL 2·DAL 3
3rd·19:59
Pavel Buchnevich shot blocked by Jason Robertson
·
STL 2·DAL 3
3rd·19:56
Jordan Kyrou shot blocked by Miro Heiskanen
·
STL 2·DAL 3
3rd·19:55
Brayden Schenn faceoff won against Roope Hintz
·
STL 2·DAL 3
3rd·19:55
Icing
STL 2·DAL 3
3rd·19:50
Mikko Rantanen Wrist Shot Wide Left
STL 2·DAL 3
3rd·19:48
Justin Faulk Slap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
STL 2·DAL 3
3rd·19:33
Pavel Buchnevich Slap Shot Wide Right
·
STL 2·DAL 3
3rd·19:09
Roope Hintz faceoff won against Brayden Schenn
·
STL 2·DAL 3
3rd·19:09
Icing
STL 2·DAL 3
3rd·19:00
Roope Hintz faceoff won against Brayden Schenn
·
STL 2·DAL 3
3rd·19:00
Timeout - Visitor
STL 2·DAL 3
3rd·19:00
Jason Robertson Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (26)
·
STL 2·DAL 3
3rd·18:56
Roope Hintz faceoff won against Dalibor Dvorsky
·
STL 2·DAL 2
3rd·18:56
Icing
STL 2·DAL 2
3rd·18:50
Dalibor Dvorsky faceoff won against Roope Hintz
·
STL 2·DAL 2
3rd·18:50
Icing
STL 2·DAL 2
3rd·18:31
Philip Broberg hit Jamie Benn
·
STL 2·DAL 2
3rd·17:31
Sam Steel hit Cam Fowler
·
STL 2·DAL 2
3rd·17:03
Jimmy Snuggerud Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
STL 2·DAL 2
3rd·17:01
Philip Broberg Snap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
STL 2·DAL 2
3rd·16:54
Takeaway by Jonatan Berggren
STL 2·DAL 2
3rd·16:43
Roope Hintz shot blocked by Colton Parayko
·
STL 2·DAL 2
3rd·16:41
Jason Robertson shot blocked by Colton Parayko
·
STL 2·DAL 2
3rd·16:39
Thomas Harley shot blocked by Jason Robertson
·
STL 2·DAL 2
3rd·16:27
Miro Heiskanen Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
·
STL 2·DAL 2
3rd·16:24
Roope Hintz faceoff won against Brayden Schenn
·
STL 2·DAL 2
3rd·16:24
Puck in Netting
STL 2·DAL 2
3rd·16:21
Miro Heiskanen Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
STL 2·DAL 2

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

40.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 5.5·STL +136/DAL -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE

Philip BrobergSTL · D
BURSTS15898
Roope HintzDAL · C
BURSTS25998
Colton ParaykoSTL · D
BURSTS9494
Cam FowlerSTL · D
DIST MI260.294
Pavel BuchnevichSTL · LW
DIST MI234.892

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.1%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
65.8%
P(DAL win)
67%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
65.8%
P(DAL win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
65.8%
P(DAL win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-162

Close price

-162

Open no-vig

59.3%

Close no-vig

59.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit