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FINAL+2BUF
PHI

PHI

17-10-6

35
BUF

BUF

15-14-4

Historical comparables

Historical comparables

No comparable NHL games in the historical pool yet.

NHLThu, Dec 18FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasBUF -155

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres held off Philadelphia Flyers, 5–3.

BUF -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Bobby Brink

Bobby Brink

RW · #10

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

BUF
Zach Benson

Zach Benson

LW · #6

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
5
PHI17-10-6BUF15-14-4
PHI

PHI

17-10-6

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
BUF

BUF

15-14-4

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

PIM

6

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 4BUFBUF2@PHIPHI5
Dec 19PHIPHI3@BUFBUF5today
Jan 15PHIPHI2@BUFBUF5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHIPHI+13043%
BUFBUF-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat PHI 5-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
PHI1113
BUF1225

Period scoring

PHI won 0 · BUF won 2

1
1

1

1
2

2

1
2

3

PHI
BUF

Play-by-play · 317 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    PHI 3·BUF 5

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    PHI 3·BUF 5

  3. 3rd·19:52

    Noah Ostlund faceoff won against Noah Cates

    ·

    PHI 3·BUF 5

  4. 3rd·19:52

    Ryan McLeod Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (9)

    ·

    PHI 3·BUF 5

  5. 3rd·19:42

    Owen Power shot blocked by Travis Sanheim

    ·

    PHI 3·BUF 4

  6. 3rd·19:39

    Giveaway by Rasmus Dahlin

    PHI 3·BUF 4

  7. 3rd·19:17

    Beck Malenstyn hit Owen Tippett

    ·

    PHI 3·BUF 4

  8. 3rd·19:10

    Owen Tippett shot blocked by Michael Kesselring

    ·

    PHI 3·BUF 4

  9. 3rd·18:52

    Owen Tippett shot blocked by Michael Kesselring

    ·

    PHI 3·BUF 4

  10. 3rd·18:20

    Jamie Drysdale shot blocked by Alex Tuch

    ·

    PHI 3·BUF 4

  11. 3rd·17:41

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Noah Cates

    ·

    PHI 3·BUF 4

  12. 3rd·17:41

    Mattias Samuelsson Delaying Game - Puck over glass

    PHI 3·BUF 4

  13. 3rd·17:40

    Owen Tippett hit Mattias Samuelsson

    ·

    PHI 3·BUF 4

  14. 3rd·17:26

    Carl Grundstrom hit Tage Thompson

    ·

    PHI 3·BUF 4

  15. 3rd·17:22

    Josh Doan Wrist Shot High and Wide Left

    ·

    PHI 3·BUF 4

  16. 3rd·17:13

    Tage Thompson shot blocked by Nick Seeler

    ·

    PHI 3·BUF 4

  17. 3rd·17:05

    Josh Doan Wrist Shot saved by Samuel Ersson

    ·

    PHI 3·BUF 4

  18. 3rd·15:46

    Josh Norris faceoff won against Christian Dvorak

    ·

    PHI 3·BUF 4

  19. 3rd·15:46

    Puck in Netting

    PHI 3·BUF 4

  20. 3rd·15:22

    Josh Norris Wrist Shot saved by Samuel Ersson

    ·

    PHI 3·BUF 4

  21. 3rd·15:19

    Tage Thompson faceoff won against Sean Couturier

    ·

    PHI 3·BUF 4

  22. 3rd·15:19

    Trevor Zegras Hooking against Ryan McLeod

    ·

    PHI 3·BUF 4

  23. 3rd·14:58

    Alex Tuch Wrist Shot saved by Samuel Ersson

    ·

    PHI 3·BUF 4

  24. 3rd·14:40

    Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Josh Norris

    ·

    PHI 3·BUF 4

  25. 3rd·14:40

    TV Timeout

    PHI 3·BUF 4

  26. 3rd·14:40

    On-Ice Official

    PHI 3·BUF 4

  27. 3rd·14:28

    Noah Cates faceoff won against Ryan McLeod

    ·

    PHI 3·BUF 4

  28. 3rd·14:28

    Travis Konecny Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Emil Andrae (8), Jamie Drysdale (12)

    · ·

    PHI 3·BUF 4

  29. 3rd·14:08

    Travis Konecny Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    PHI 2·BUF 4

  30. 3rd·13:46

    Emil Andrae shot blocked by Alex Tuch

    ·

    PHI 2·BUF 4

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

27

Shots

28

0.0

PCT

20.0

10

PIM

6

30

Faceoffs W

26

10

Blocks

15

9

Giveaways

25

1

Takeaways

6

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 5.5·PHI +130/BUF -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Jamie DrysdalePHI · D
    SKATE MPH23.098
  • Travis SanheimPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.795
  • Cam YorkPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.693
  • Christian DvorakPHI · C
    BURSTS3492

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · BUF favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+130

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR