Live · 5
Free during beta —to track favorites + alerts
FINAL+4CGY
PHI

PHI

20-12-7

15
CGY

CGY

18-18-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Dec 31FinalSeriesCGY wins series 2-0VegasCGY -135

Recap · NHL

algary Flames held off Philadelphia Flyers, 5–1.

CGY -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Travis Konecny

Travis Konecny

RW · #11

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

CGY · top performer

CGY
Matt Coronato

Matt Coronato

RW · #27

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Philadelphia Flyers at Calgary Flames · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
1
5
PHI20-12-7CGY18-18-4
PHI

PHI

20-12-7

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
CGY

CGY

18-18-4

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

6

Season series

CGY wins series 2-0

Nov 3CGYCGY2@PHIPHI1
Jan 1PHIPHI1@CGYCGY5today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CGY -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHIPHI+11447%
CGYCGY-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CGY -1.5↗SpreadBet CGY -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CGY beat PHI 5-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
PHI0101
CGY1315

Period scoring

PHI won 0 · CGY won 3

0
1

1

1
3

2

0
1

3

PHI
CGY

Play-by-play · 315 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    PHI 1·CGY 5

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    PHI 1·CGY 5

  3. 3rd·19:58

    Rodrigo Abols Backhand saved by Dustin Wolf

    ·

    PHI 1·CGY 5

  4. 3rd·19:55

    Rodrigo Abols Tip-In saved by Dustin Wolf

    ·

    PHI 1·CGY 5

  5. 3rd·19:54

    Giveaway by Dustin Wolf

    PHI 1·CGY 5

  6. 3rd·19:26

    Trevor Zegras Slap Shot saved by Dustin Wolf

    ·

    PHI 1·CGY 5

  7. 3rd·19:00

    Cam York Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    PHI 1·CGY 5

  8. 3rd·18:51

    John Beecher Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    PHI 1·CGY 5

  9. 3rd·18:33

    John Beecher faceoff won against Christian Dvorak

    ·

    PHI 1·CGY 5

  10. 3rd·18:33

    Puck in Netting

    PHI 1·CGY 5

  11. 3rd·18:31

    Christian Dvorak Tip-In saved by Dustin Wolf

    ·

    PHI 1·CGY 5

  12. 3rd·18:22

    Christian Dvorak shot blocked by Yan Kuznetsov

    ·

    PHI 1·CGY 5

  13. 3rd·18:00

    Noah Cates Tip-In Above Crossbar

    ·

    PHI 1·CGY 5

  14. 3rd·17:43

    Owen Tippett Wrist Shot saved by Dustin Wolf

    ·

    PHI 1·CGY 5

  15. 3rd·17:24

    Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Noah Cates

    ·

    PHI 1·CGY 5

  16. 3rd·17:24

    MacKenzie Weegar Interference against Christian Dvorak

    ·

    PHI 1·CGY 5

  17. 3rd·16:40

    Noah Juulsen Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    PHI 1·CGY 5

  18. 3rd·16:29

    Owen Tippett Wrist Shot saved by Dustin Wolf

    ·

    PHI 1·CGY 5

  19. 3rd·16:28

    Nick Seeler Wrist Shot saved by Dustin Wolf

    ·

    PHI 1·CGY 5

  20. 3rd·16:27

    Sean Couturier Wrist Shot saved by Dustin Wolf

    ·

    PHI 1·CGY 5

  21. 3rd·16:25

    Sean Couturier shot blocked by Kevin Bahl

    ·

    PHI 1·CGY 5

  22. 3rd·15:54

    Owen Tippett Snap Shot High and Wide Right

    ·

    PHI 1·CGY 5

  23. 3rd·15:49

    Owen Tippett shot blocked by Joel Farabee

    ·

    PHI 1·CGY 5

  24. 3rd·15:48

    Sean Couturier faceoff won against Nazem Kadri

    ·

    PHI 1·CGY 5

  25. 3rd·15:48

    Goalie Stopped

    PHI 1·CGY 5

  26. 3rd·15:46

    Nick Seeler Snap Shot saved by Dustin Wolf

    ·

    PHI 1·CGY 5

  27. 3rd·15:12

    John Beecher Wrist Shot saved by Samuel Ersson

    ·

    PHI 1·CGY 5

  28. 3rd·15:06

    John Beecher faceoff won against Rodrigo Abols

    ·

    PHI 1·CGY 5

  29. 3rd·15:06

    On-Ice Official

    PHI 1·CGY 5

  30. 3rd·14:57

    Joel Hanley shot blocked by Adam Klapka

    ·

    PHI 1·CGY 5

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

CGY

Home

26

Shots

26

0.0

PCT

66.7

8

PIM

6

25

Faceoffs W

30

18

Blocks

15

13

Giveaways

12

6

Takeaways

7

Betting line

CGY -1.5·O/U 5.5·PHI +114/CGY -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Jamie DrysdalePHI · D
    SKATE MPH23.098
  • Yan KuznetsovCGY · D
    SHOT MPH100.297
  • Rasmus AnderssonVGK · D
    DIST MI54.196
  • Travis SanheimPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.795
  • Mikael BacklundCGY · C
    SHOT MPH93.594

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · CGY favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CGY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CGY win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CGY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR