NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+5TOR

VAN

16-23-5

TOR

22-15-7

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Jan 10FinalSeriesTOR leads series 1-0VegasTOR -162

Recap · NHL

oronto Maple Leafs held off Vancouver Canucks, 5–0.

TOR -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

VAN · top performer

Brock Boeser

RW · #6

0Points

—

SOG

TOR · top performer

William Nylander

RW · #88

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

VAN16-23-5

TOR22-15-7

VAN16-23-5TOR22-15-7

VAN

16-23-5

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

TOR

22-15-7

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

TOR leads series 1-0

Jan 11

VAN0@

TOR5today

Feb 1

TOR3@

VAN2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VAN+13642%

TOR-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat VAN 5-0.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
VAN	0	0	0	0
TOR	3	1	1	5

Period scoring

VAN won 0 · TOR won 3

VAN

TOR

Play-by-play · 312 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
VAN 0·TOR 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VAN 0·TOR 5
3rd·19:46
Steven Lorentz faceoff won against Aatu Raty
·
VAN 0·TOR 5
3rd·19:46
Nicholas Robertson Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: none
VAN 0·TOR 5
3rd·19:45
Giveaway by Tom Willander
VAN 0·TOR 4
3rd·19:44
Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by Elias Pettersson
· ·
VAN 0·TOR 4
3rd·19:12
Nicolas Roy Wrist Shot saved by Kevin Lankinen
·
VAN 0·TOR 4
3rd·18:51
Aatu Raty faceoff won against Nicolas Roy
·
VAN 0·TOR 4
3rd·18:51
Kiefer Sherwood Roughing against Brandon Carlo
·
VAN 0·TOR 4
3rd·18:51
Goalie Stopped
VAN 0·TOR 4
3rd·18:49
Kiefer Sherwood Tip-In saved by Joseph Woll
·
VAN 0·TOR 4
3rd·18:47
Drew O'Connor hit Morgan Rielly
·
VAN 0·TOR 4
3rd·18:30
David Kampf faceoff won against Scott Laughton
·
VAN 0·TOR 4
3rd·18:30
Puck Frozen - Goalie
VAN 0·TOR 4
3rd·18:28
Steven Lorentz hit Marcus Pettersson
· ·
VAN 0·TOR 4
3rd·18:14
Jake DeBrusk Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
VAN 0·TOR 4
3rd·17:10
Giveaway by Troy Stecher
·
VAN 0·TOR 4
3rd·16:26
Aatu Raty faceoff won against Auston Matthews
·
VAN 0·TOR 4
3rd·16:26
Goalie Stopped
VAN 0·TOR 4
3rd·16:25
Drew O'Connor Wrap-around saved by Joseph Woll
·
VAN 0·TOR 4
3rd·16:17
Drew O'Connor Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
VAN 0·TOR 4
3rd·15:32
Nicolas Roy faceoff won against Linus Karlsson
·
VAN 0·TOR 4
3rd·15:32
Off-side
VAN 0·TOR 4
3rd·15:15
Scott Laughton faceoff won against Elias Pettersson
· ·
VAN 0·TOR 4
3rd·15:15
Puck in Netting
VAN 0·TOR 4
3rd·15:13
Zeev Buium shot blocked by Bobby McMann
·
VAN 0·TOR 4
3rd·14:45
Aatu Raty Tip-In Hit Right Post
·
VAN 0·TOR 4
3rd·14:38
Giveaway by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
VAN 0·TOR 4
3rd·14:19
Nicholas Robertson shot blocked by Filip Hronek
·
VAN 0·TOR 4
3rd·14:11
Max Domi Wrist Shot saved by Kevin Lankinen
·
VAN 0·TOR 4

Team stats

VAN

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 6.5·VAN +136/TOR -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 25 skaters with EDGE

Bobby McMannSEA · C
SKATE MPH24.399
Brock BoeserVAN · RW
SHOT MPH96.498
Filip HronekVAN · D
DIST MI292.398
Jake DeBruskVAN · LW
SKATE MPH23.595
Nils HoglanderVAN · LW
SHOT MPH93.694

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-162

Close price

-162

Open no-vig

59.3%

Close no-vig

59.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

TOR vs VAN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 111 high confidence

Shots on goal

Auston MatthewsTOR
3.6± 2.5high
Jake DeBruskVAN
3.1± 2.4high
William NylanderTOR
2.7± 2.3high

Goals

John TavaresTOR
0.5± 0.7high
William NylanderTOR
0.5± 0.7high
Jake DeBruskVAN
0.5± 0.7high

Points

William NylanderTOR
1.2± 1.4high
John TavaresTOR
1.0± 1.1high
Brock BoeserVAN
0.9± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands