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FINAL+1CHI
CHI

CHI

16-18-7

32
WSH

WSH

21-15-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Jan 3FinalSeriesCHI leads series 1-0VegasWSH -250

Recap · NHL

hicago Blackhawks went into Washington Capitals and beat them, 3–2.

CHI +1.5 cashed (WSH lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHI · top performer

CHI
Tyler Bertuzzi

Tyler Bertuzzi

LW · #59

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

WSH · top performer

WSH
Anthony Beauvillier

Anthony Beauvillier

LW · #72

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Chicago Blackhawks at Washington Capitals · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO
3
2
CHI16-18-7WSH21-15-6
CHI

CHI

16-18-7

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
WSH

WSH

21-15-6

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

PIM

4

Season series

CHI leads series 1-0

Jan 4CHICHI3@WSHWSH2today
Jan 10WSHWSH5@CHICHI1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CHICHI+20533%
WSHWSH-25071%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHI beat WSH 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTSOT
CHI110013
WSH101002

Period scoring

CHI won 2 · WSH won 1

1
1

1

1
0

2

0
1

3

0
0

OT

1
0

SO

CHI
WSH

Play-by-play · 319 plays

period
event
player
  1. SO·0:00

    Game End

    CHI 3·WSH 2

  2. SO·0:00

    End of OT

    CHI 3·WSH 2

  3. SO·0:00

    End of Shootout

    CHI 3·WSH 2

  4. SO·0:00

    Nick Foligno Goal Wrist Shot

    CHI 3·WSH 2

  5. SO·0:00

    Jakob Chychrun Backhand High and Wide Left

    ·

    CHI 3·WSH 2

  6. SO·0:00

    Andre Burakovsky Goal Snap Shot

    CHI 3·WSH 2

  7. SO·0:00

    Sonny Milano Goal Snap Shot

    CHI 3·WSH 2

  8. SO·0:00

    Louis Crevier Backhand Above Crossbar

    ·

    CHI 3·WSH 2

  9. SO·0:00

    Connor McMichael Snap Shot saved by Spencer Knight

    ·

    CHI 3·WSH 2

  10. SO·0:00

    Oliver Moore Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson

    ·

    CHI 3·WSH 2

  11. SO·0:00

    Anthony Beauvillier Backhand saved by Spencer Knight

    ·

    CHI 3·WSH 2

  12. SO·0:00

    Ryan Donato Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson

    ·

    CHI 3·WSH 2

  13. SO·0:00

    Dylan Strome Goal Backhand

    CHI 3·WSH 2

  14. SO·0:00

    Nick Lardis Goal Snap Shot

    CHI 3·WSH 2

  15. SO·0:00

    Ryan Leonard Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    CHI 3·WSH 2

  16. SO·0:00

    Start of Shootout

    CHI 3·WSH 2

  17. OT·5:00

    End of OT

    CHI 2·WSH 2

  18. OT·4:54

    Giveaway by Artyom Levshunov

    CHI 2·WSH 2

  19. OT·4:06

    Teuvo Teravainen faceoff won against Nic Dowd

    ·

    CHI 2·WSH 2

  20. OT·4:06

    Timeout - Visitor

    CHI 2·WSH 2

  21. OT·4:06

    Jakob Chychrun Slashing against Nick Lardis

    ·

    CHI 2·WSH 2

  22. OT·3:55

    Nick Lardis Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson

    ·

    CHI 2·WSH 2

  23. OT·3:13

    Oliver Moore faceoff won against Dylan Strome

    ·

    CHI 2·WSH 2

  24. OT·3:13

    Goalie Stopped

    CHI 2·WSH 2

  25. OT·3:13

    Timeout - Home

    CHI 2·WSH 2

  26. OT·3:10

    Anthony Beauvillier Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    CHI 2·WSH 2

  27. OT·2:57

    Anthony Beauvillier Snap Shot Above Crossbar

    ·

    CHI 2·WSH 2

  28. OT·2:31

    Dylan Strome faceoff won against Ryan Greene

    ·

    CHI 2·WSH 2

  29. OT·2:31

    Icing

    CHI 2·WSH 2

  30. OT·1:29

    Artyom Levshunov Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson

    ·

    CHI 2·WSH 2

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

33

Shots

34

50.0

PCT

0.0

2

PIM

4

24

Faceoffs W

25

9

Blocks

19

19

Giveaways

17

9

Takeaways

2

Betting line

WSH -1.5·O/U 5.5·CHI +205/WSH -250

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • John CarlsonANA · D
    SHOT MPH102.799+
  • Louis CrevierCHI · D
    SHOT MPH102.899
  • Ryan LeonardWSH · RW
    SKATE MPH24.399
  • Ethen FrankWSH · C
    BURSTS22797
  • Jakob ChychrunWSH · D
    DIST MI264.495

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · WSH favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WSH win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+205

Close price

+205

Open no-vig

31.5%

Close no-vig

31.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR