NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3WSH

ANA

21-18-3

WSH

22-15-6

NHLMon, Jan 5FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasWSH -130

Recap · NHL

ashington Capitals held off Anaheim Ducks, 7–4.

WSH -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ANA · top performer

Cutter Gauthier

LW · #61

1Points

—

SOG

WSH · top performer

Justin Sourdif

RW · #34

5Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
L. CarlssonC · #91	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	16:54
C. GauthierLW · #61	0	1	-1	4	0	0	0	18:20
M. GranlundC · #64	0	0	-5	2	0	0	0	17:41
R. JohnstonLW · #44	0	1	1	2	2	0	5	10:10
A. KillornLW · #17	1	0	1	5	0	0	2	12:07
C. KreiderLW · #20	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	14:49
M. McTavishC · #23	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	17:06
N. NesterenkoC · #13	0	0	-3	3	2	0	0	12:25
R. PoehlingC · #25	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	12:53
B. SenneckeRW · #45	1	0	-1	5	1	1	0	18:25
R. StromeC · #16	0	0	-4	1	1	0	0	10:51
T. TerryRW · #19	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	17:29

Defensemen

defenses box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
R. GudasD · #7	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	17:29
J. LaCombeD · #2	0	1	-4	5	0	0	0	17:27
P. MintyukovD · #98	0	0	-1	3	1	1	0	22:50
I. MooreD · #74	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	21:09
J. TroubaD · #65	1	0	-3	3	0	2	5	18:48
O. ZellwegerD · #51	0	1	2	4	0	0	0	19:40

Goalies

goalies box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	SA	GA	SV	SV%	TOI
L. DostalG · #1	3	0	3	1.000	19:27
P. MrazekG · #34	24	5	19	.792	40:00

Forwards

forwards box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
A. BeauvillierLW · #72	0	0	1	0	2	2	0	20:58
N. DowdC · #26	0	1	0	0	5	0	0	20:03
B. DuhaimeRW · #22	0	0	-1	0	1	2	5	16:04
E. FrankC · #53	0	0	-2	3	0	2	0	16:18
H. LapierreC · #29	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	6:25
R. LeonardRW · #9	1	1	2	3	2	0	0	15:56
C. McMichaelC · #24	0	4	3	2	1	1	0	21:37
S. MilanoLW · #15	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6:08
A. OvechkinLW · #8	2	0	2	4	4	0	2	16:39
J. SourdifRW · #34	3	2	3	3	0	0	0	16:59
D. StromeC · #17	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	16:48

Defensemen

defenses box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
J. CarlsonD · #74	1	1	3	2	0	2	2	19:40
J. ChychrunD · #6	0	0	1	1	0	3	0	22:16
M. FehervaryD · #42	0	2	2	2	0	2	2	20:13
D. McIlrathD · #52	0	0	-1	0	0	0	5	5:42
M. RoyD · #3	0	1	1	2	3	3	0	22:22
R. SandinD · #38	0	0	1	2	1	3	0	18:45
T. van RiemsdykD · #57	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	11:07

Goalies

goalies box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	SA	GA	SV	SV%	TOI
C. LindgrenG · #79	45	4	41	.911	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 6

WSH3@

ANA4

Jan 6

ANA4@

WSH7today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ANA+11048%

WSH-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat ANA 7-4.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
ANA	1	2	1	4
WSH	2	3	2	7

Period scoring

ANA won 0 · WSH won 3

ANA

WSH

Play-by-play · 328 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
ANA 4·WSH 7
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
ANA 4·WSH 7
3rd·19:49
Ian Moore shot blocked by Hendrix Lapierre
·
ANA 4·WSH 7
3rd·19:46
Pavel Mintyukov Snap Shot saved by Charlie Lindgren
·
ANA 4·WSH 7
3rd·19:18
Ryan Poehling faceoff won against Hendrix Lapierre
·
ANA 4·WSH 7
3rd·19:18
Alex Ovechkin Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Sourdif (10)
·
ANA 4·WSH 7
3rd·19:05
Jackson LaCombe Snap Shot saved by Charlie Lindgren
·
ANA 4·WSH 6
3rd·18:46
Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Dylan Strome
· ·
ANA 4·WSH 6
3rd·18:46
John Carlson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Nic Dowd (8), Martin Fehervary (11)
· ·
ANA 4·WSH 6
3rd·17:41
John Carlson Slap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
ANA 4·WSH 5
3rd·17:31
Pavel Mintyukov hit Brandon Duhaime
·
ANA 4·WSH 5
3rd·17:05
Nic Dowd hit Beckett Sennecke
·
ANA 4·WSH 5
3rd·16:30
Giveaway by Matt Roy
ANA 4·WSH 5
3rd·16:26
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Mason McTavish
· ·
ANA 4·WSH 5
3rd·16:26
Goalie Stopped
ANA 4·WSH 5
3rd·16:23
Jacob Trouba Slap Shot saved by Charlie Lindgren
·
ANA 4·WSH 5
3rd·16:10
Beckett Sennecke Tip-In saved by Charlie Lindgren
·
ANA 4·WSH 5
3rd·15:49
Matt Roy shot blocked by Mason McTavish
·
ANA 4·WSH 5
3rd·15:13
Troy Terry shot blocked by Rasmus Sandin
· ·
ANA 4·WSH 5
3rd·14:29
Ryan Leonard Snap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
ANA 4·WSH 5
3rd·14:14
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Mikael Granlund
· ·
ANA 4·WSH 5
3rd·14:14
Icing
ANA 4·WSH 5
3rd·13:56
Alex Ovechkin hit Pavel Mintyukov
·
ANA 4·WSH 5
3rd·13:34
Giveaway by Troy Terry
·
ANA 4·WSH 5
3rd·13:23
Ethen Frank Backhand Wide Left
·
ANA 4·WSH 5
3rd·13:12
Jackson LaCombe Snap Shot saved by Charlie Lindgren
·
ANA 4·WSH 5
3rd·13:08
Brandon Duhaime hit Troy Terry
· ·
ANA 4·WSH 5
3rd·12:58
Nic Dowd faceoff won against Leo Carlsson
·
ANA 4·WSH 5
3rd·12:58
Off-side
ANA 4·WSH 5
3rd·11:28
Alex Killorn Snap Shot saved by Charlie Lindgren
·
ANA 4·WSH 5

Team stats

ANA

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

WSH -1.5·O/U 6.5·ANA +110/WSH -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE

John CarlsonANA · D
SHOT MPH102.799+
Ryan LeonardWSH · RW
SKATE MPH24.399
Ethen FrankWSH · C
BURSTS22797
Leo CarlssonANA · C
BURSTS4995
Jakob ChychrunWSH · D
DIST MI264.495

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.6%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
58.2%
P(WSH win)
67%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
58.2%
P(WSH win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
58.2%
P(WSH win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-130

Close price

-130

Open no-vig

54.3%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit