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FINAL+1CHI
VGK

VGK

17-11-12

23
CHI

CHI

17-18-7

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, Jan 4FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasVGK -265

Recap · NHL

hicago Blackhawks held off Vegas Golden Knights, 3–2 in overtime.

CHI +1.5 cashed (VGK lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

VGK · top performer

VGK
Jack Eichel

Jack Eichel

C · #9

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

CHI · top performer

CHI
Tyler Bertuzzi

Tyler Bertuzzi

LW · #59

3Points

3

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Vegas Golden Knights at Chicago Blackhawks · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
2
3
VGK17-11-12CHI17-18-7
VGK

VGK

17-11-12

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
CHI

CHI

17-18-7

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

2

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 3CHICHI3@VGKVGK4
Jan 5VGKVGK2@CHICHI3today
Mar 15CHICHI0@VGKVGK4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGKVGK-26573%
CHICHI+21532%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHI beat VGK 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
VGK11002
CHI10113

Period scoring

VGK won 1 · CHI won 2

1
1

1

1
0

2

0
1

3

0
1

OT

VGK
CHI

Play-by-play · 298 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·1:18

    Game End

    VGK 2·CHI 3

  2. OT·1:18

    End of OT

    VGK 2·CHI 3

  3. OT·1:18

    Challenge League - off-side - goal

    VGK 2·CHI 3

  4. OT·1:18

    Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (6), Artyom Levshunov (18)

    · ·

    VGK 2·CHI 3

  5. OT·0:59

    Tyler Bertuzzi Wrist Shot Hit Left Post

    ·

    VGK 2·CHI 2

  6. OT·0:00

    Oliver Moore faceoff won against Jack Eichel

    ·

    VGK 2·CHI 2

  7. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    VGK 2·CHI 2

  8. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    VGK 2·CHI 2

  9. 3rd·19:40

    Andre Burakovsky shot blocked by Ben Hutton

    ·

    VGK 2·CHI 2

  10. 3rd·19:22

    Jack Eichel faceoff won against Ryan Greene

    ·

    VGK 2·CHI 2

  11. 3rd·19:22

    Icing

    VGK 2·CHI 2

  12. 3rd·19:15

    Connor Murphy Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    VGK 2·CHI 2

  13. 3rd·18:53

    Takeaway by Nick Foligno

    VGK 2·CHI 2

  14. 3rd·18:46

    Giveaway by Noah Hanifin

    VGK 2·CHI 2

  15. 3rd·18:41

    Jack Eichel faceoff won against Nick Foligno

    ·

    VGK 2·CHI 2

  16. 3rd·18:41

    Icing

    VGK 2·CHI 2

  17. 3rd·18:16

    Alexander Holtz hit Oliver Moore

    ·

    VGK 2·CHI 2

  18. 3rd·17:55

    Andre Burakovsky hit Noah Hanifin

    ·

    VGK 2·CHI 2

  19. 3rd·17:18

    Connor Murphy hit Ivan Barbashev

    ·

    VGK 2·CHI 2

  20. 3rd·17:08

    Ivan Barbashev hit Connor Murphy

    ·

    VGK 2·CHI 2

  21. 3rd·16:40

    Jack Eichel shot blocked by Louis Crevier

    ·

    VGK 2·CHI 2

  22. 3rd·16:34

    Giveaway by Ilya Mikheyev

    VGK 2·CHI 2

  23. 3rd·16:17

    Jack Eichel Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    VGK 2·CHI 2

  24. 3rd·16:14

    Jack Eichel Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    VGK 2·CHI 2

  25. 3rd·15:48

    Ryan Greene Backhand saved by Akira Schmid

    ·

    VGK 2·CHI 2

  26. 3rd·15:45

    Brett Howden Wrist Shot Hit Left Post

    ·

    VGK 2·CHI 2

  27. 3rd·15:44

    Jack Eichel Wrist Shot saved by Arvid Soderblom

    ·

    VGK 2·CHI 2

  28. 3rd·15:35

    Oliver Moore Batted Wide Left

    ·

    VGK 2·CHI 2

  29. 3rd·15:35

    Ryan Greene Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    VGK 2·CHI 2

  30. 3rd·15:34

    Ryan Greene Wrist Shot saved by Akira Schmid

    ·

    VGK 2·CHI 2

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

15

Shots

20

0.0

PCT

0.0

4

PIM

2

29

Faceoffs W

25

19

Blocks

8

14

Giveaways

16

2

Takeaways

7

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·VGK -265/CHI +215

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Jack EichelVGK · C
    DIST MI58.999+
  • Louis CrevierCHI · D
    SHOT MPH102.899
  • Mitch MarnerVGK · RW
    DIST MI53.598
  • Noah HanifinVGK · D
    BURSTS1998
  • Brett HowdenVGK · C
    BURSTS4295

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · CHI favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CHI win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+215

Close price

+215

Open no-vig

30.4%

Close no-vig

30.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR