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FINAL+1BUF
BUF

BUF

13-14-4

32
VAN

VAN

11-17-3

Historical comparables

Historical comparables

No comparable NHL games in the historical pool yet.

NHLThu, Dec 11FinalSeriesBUF leads series 1-0VegasBUF -115

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres went into Vancouver Canucks and beat them, 3–2.

VAN +1.5 cashed (BUF won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BUF · top performer

BUF
Tage Thompson

Tage Thompson

C · #72

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

VAN · top performer

VAN
Jake DeBrusk

Jake DeBrusk

LW · #74

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Buffalo Sabres at Vancouver Canucks · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
2
BUF13-14-4VAN11-17-3
BUF

BUF

13-14-4

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
VAN

VAN

11-17-3

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

PIM

8

Season series

BUF leads series 1-0

Dec 12BUFBUF3@VANVAN2today
Jan 7VANVAN3@BUFBUF5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUFBUF-11553%
VANVAN-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat VAN 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
BUF1203
VAN1102

Period scoring

BUF won 1 · VAN won 0

1
1

1

2
1

2

0
0

3

BUF
VAN

Play-by-play · 287 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    BUF 3·VAN 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    BUF 3·VAN 2

  3. 3rd·19:53

    Quinn Hughes shot blocked by Tage Thompson

    · ·

    BUF 3·VAN 2

  4. 3rd·19:36

    Conor Garland Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    BUF 3·VAN 2

  5. 3rd·18:53

    Kiefer Sherwood shot blocked by Tyson Kozak

    ·

    BUF 3·VAN 2

  6. 3rd·18:51

    Kiefer Sherwood shot blocked by Jordan Greenway

    ·

    BUF 3·VAN 2

  7. 3rd·18:42

    Jake DeBrusk Tip-In saved by Alex Lyon

    ·

    BUF 3·VAN 2

  8. 3rd·18:36

    Jake DeBrusk Wrist Shot saved by Alex Lyon

    ·

    BUF 3·VAN 2

  9. 3rd·18:28

    Kiefer Sherwood shot blocked by Tyson Kozak

    ·

    BUF 3·VAN 2

  10. 3rd·17:56

    Jack Quinn shot blocked by Zach Benson

    ·

    BUF 3·VAN 2

  11. 3rd·17:52

    Nils Hoglander Wrist Shot Hit Left Post

    ·

    BUF 3·VAN 2

  12. 3rd·17:46

    Nils Hoglander Snap Shot saved by Alex Lyon

    ·

    BUF 3·VAN 2

  13. 3rd·17:14

    Max Sasson Wrist Shot saved by Alex Lyon

    ·

    BUF 3·VAN 2

  14. 3rd·17:08

    Giveaway by Conor Timmins

    BUF 3·VAN 2

  15. 3rd·16:15

    Drew O'Connor Wrist Shot saved by Alex Lyon

    ·

    BUF 3·VAN 2

  16. 3rd·16:03

    Evander Kane shot blocked by Tyson Kozak

    ·

    BUF 3·VAN 2

  17. 3rd·15:32

    Filip Hronek Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    BUF 3·VAN 2

  18. 3rd·15:28

    Quinn Hughes Wrist Shot Failed Bank Attempt

    · ·

    BUF 3·VAN 2

  19. 3rd·15:02

    Giveaway by Quinn Hughes

    ·

    BUF 3·VAN 2

  20. 3rd·14:58

    Drew O'Connor faceoff won against Tyson Kozak

    ·

    BUF 3·VAN 2

  21. 3rd·14:58

    Off-side

    BUF 3·VAN 2

  22. 3rd·14:31

    Marcus Pettersson shot blocked by Peyton Krebs

    · ·

    BUF 3·VAN 2

  23. 3rd·14:29

    Max Sasson faceoff won against Tage Thompson

    ·

    BUF 3·VAN 2

  24. 3rd·14:29

    Icing

    BUF 3·VAN 2

  25. 3rd·14:18

    Brock Boeser Wrist Shot saved by Alex Lyon

    ·

    BUF 3·VAN 2

  26. 3rd·13:26

    Filip Hronek Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    BUF 3·VAN 2

  27. 3rd·13:21

    David Kampf faceoff won against Tage Thompson

    ·

    BUF 3·VAN 2

  28. 3rd·13:21

    Puck in Netting

    BUF 3·VAN 2

  29. 3rd·13:19

    Filip Hronek shot blocked by Owen Power

    ·

    BUF 3·VAN 2

  30. 3rd·12:54

    Drew O'Connor Backhand Wide Right

    ·

    BUF 3·VAN 2

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

VAN

Home

15

Shots

32

50.0

PCT

33.3

10

PIM

8

17

Faceoffs W

25

26

Blocks

7

17

Giveaways

14

8

Takeaways

4

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF -115/VAN -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 25 skaters with EDGE
  • Brock BoeserVAN · RW
    SHOT MPH96.498
  • Filip HronekVAN · D
    DIST MI292.398
  • Jake DeBruskVAN · LW
    SKATE MPH23.595
  • Quinn HughesMIN · D
    BURSTS1895
  • Nils HoglanderVAN · LW
    SHOT MPH93.694

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · VAN favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VAN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VAN win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VAN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR