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FINAL+1VGK
VGK

VGK

18-11-12

43
WPG

WPG

15-21-5

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Jan 6FinalSeriesVGK leads series 1-0VegasWPG -118

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights went into Winnipeg Jets and beat them, 4–3 in overtime.

VGK +1.5 cashed (WPG lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

VGK · top performer

VGK
Tomas Hertl

Tomas Hertl

C · #48

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

WPG · top performer

WPG
Gabriel Vilardi

Gabriel Vilardi

C · #13

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Vegas Golden Knights at Winnipeg Jets · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
4
3
VGK18-11-12WPG15-21-5
VGK

VGK

18-11-12

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
WPG

WPG

15-21-5

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

PIM

13

Season series

VGK leads series 1-0

Jan 7VGKVGK4@WPGWPG3today
Mar 25VGKVGK1@WPGWPG4
Apr 14WPGWPG2@VGKVGK6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WPG -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGKVGK-10250%
WPGWPG-11854%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WPG -1.5↗SpreadBet WPG -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat WPG 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
VGK01214
WPG11103

Period scoring

VGK won 2 · WPG won 1

0
1

1

1
1

2

2
1

3

1
0

OT

VGK
WPG

Play-by-play · 306 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·4:47

    Game End

    VGK 4·WPG 3

  2. OT·4:47

    End of OT

    VGK 4·WPG 3

  3. OT·4:47

    Tomas Hertl Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Mitch Marner (33), Jack Eichel (31)

    · ·

    VGK 4·WPG 3

  4. OT·4:29

    Mark Stone Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck

    · ·

    VGK 3·WPG 3

  5. OT·4:09

    Adam Lowry faceoff won against Tomas Hertl

    ·

    VGK 3·WPG 3

  6. OT·4:09

    Timeout - Visitor

    VGK 3·WPG 3

  7. OT·4:09

    Dylan Samberg Tripping against Mitch Marner

    ·

    VGK 3·WPG 3

  8. OT·3:50

    Morgan Barron Backhand saved by Carter Hart

    ·

    VGK 3·WPG 3

  9. OT·3:35

    Dylan Samberg Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    VGK 3·WPG 3

  10. OT·3:33

    Jonathan Toews Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart

    ·

    VGK 3·WPG 3

  11. OT·3:24

    Gabriel Vilardi Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart

    ·

    VGK 3·WPG 3

  12. OT·2:28

    Reilly Smith Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck

    · ·

    VGK 3·WPG 3

  13. OT·2:20

    Reilly Smith Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck

    · ·

    VGK 3·WPG 3

  14. OT·1:13

    Noah Hanifin Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck

    · ·

    VGK 3·WPG 3

  15. OT·0:58

    Jack Eichel Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    VGK 3·WPG 3

  16. OT·0:19

    Jack Eichel faceoff won against Adam Lowry

    ·

    VGK 3·WPG 3

  17. OT·0:19

    Goalie Stopped

    VGK 3·WPG 3

  18. OT·0:17

    Neal Pionk Slap Shot saved by Carter Hart

    ·

    VGK 3·WPG 3

  19. OT·0:15

    Adam Lowry faceoff won against Jack Eichel

    ·

    VGK 3·WPG 3

  20. OT·0:15

    Goalie Stopped

    VGK 3·WPG 3

  21. OT·0:12

    Morgan Barron Snap Shot saved by Carter Hart

    ·

    VGK 3·WPG 3

  22. OT·0:00

    Adam Lowry faceoff won against Jack Eichel

    ·

    VGK 3·WPG 3

  23. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    VGK 3·WPG 3

  24. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    VGK 3·WPG 3

  25. 3rd·19:57

    Jack Eichel Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    VGK 3·WPG 3

  26. 3rd·17:55

    Tanner Pearson Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart

    ·

    VGK 3·WPG 3

  27. 3rd·17:54

    Ben Hutton hit Jonathan Toews

    ·

    VGK 3·WPG 3

  28. 3rd·17:37

    Mark Scheifele hit Brett Howden

    ·

    VGK 3·WPG 3

  29. 3rd·17:30

    Keegan Kolesar hit Dylan DeMelo

    ·

    VGK 3·WPG 3

  30. 3rd·17:18

    Tomas Hertl shot blocked by Mark Scheifele

    ·

    VGK 3·WPG 3

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

WPG

Home

31

Shots

20

50.0

PCT

0.0

9

PIM

13

25

Faceoffs W

32

10

Blocks

18

13

Giveaways

14

5

Takeaways

3

Betting line

WPG -1.5·O/U 5.5·VGK -102/WPG -118

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Kyle ConnorWPG · LW
    DIST MI293.099+
  • Jack EichelVGK · C
    DIST MI58.999+
  • Mitch MarnerVGK · RW
    DIST MI53.598
  • Noah HanifinVGK · D
    BURSTS1998
  • Morgan BarronWPG · C
    SHOT MPH95.697

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · WPG favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WPG win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WPG win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WPG win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-118

Close price

-118

Open no-vig

51.7%

Close no-vig

51.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR