MLBMid 8
LAA 16@HOU 2
-67.6pplow
WNBA5:24 - 2nd
CON 35@LV 35
-14.2ppmedium
WNBA5:34 - 2nd
ATL 47@LA 23
-32.3pplow
NFL13:06 - 2nd
SF 3@LAC 0
NFL6:43 - 4th
LV 16@HOU 20
TONIGHTGraded picks 6-3 so far (MLB 6-2, WNBA 0-1)
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Cavalli (WSH): 6.0 IP · 11 K in a win over TEX — Standout Index 93
LAST NIGHT · MLBJ. Urquidy (CHW): 6.0 IP · 8 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBP. Messick (CLE): 6.2 IP · 10 K · 1 ER against SF
TRANSACTION · MLBMets: Sent 1B Mark Vientos on a rehab assignment to Binghamton (EL) (Aug 20)
TRANSACTION · MLBBlue Jays: Sent 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr (Aug 20)
TRANSACTION · MLBMariners: Sent SS J.P (Aug 20)
MLBMid 8
LAA 16@HOU 2
-67.6pplow
WNBA5:24 - 2nd
CON 35@LV 35
-14.2ppmedium
WNBA5:34 - 2nd
ATL 47@LA 23
-32.3pplow
NFL13:06 - 2nd
SF 3@LAC 0
NFL6:43 - 4th
LV 16@HOU 20
TONIGHTGraded picks 6-3 so far (MLB 6-2, WNBA 0-1)
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Cavalli (WSH): 6.0 IP · 11 K in a win over TEX — Standout Index 93
LAST NIGHT · MLBJ. Urquidy (CHW): 6.0 IP · 8 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBP. Messick (CLE): 6.2 IP · 10 K · 1 ER against SF
TRANSACTION · MLBMets: Sent 1B Mark Vientos on a rehab assignment to Binghamton (EL) (Aug 20)
TRANSACTION · MLBBlue Jays: Sent 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr (Aug 20)
TRANSACTION · MLBMariners: Sent SS J.P (Aug 20)
HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
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THE ONE Analytics
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LV logo
LV
16
Live7:21 - 4th
HOU logo
HOU
20
Updated 10:43 PM ET
Reliant Stadium · Houston, TX
7:21 - 4TH+4HOU↑
LV

LV

0-1

16
20
HOU

HOU

0-1

NFL · Drive chart

20 drives · 3 TD · 3 FG · 1 Fum · 10 Punt
  1. TDHOU10p · 69y
  2. InterLV4p · 50y
  3. PuntLV3p · 1y
  4. FGHOU8p · 48y
  5. FGLV8p · 26y
  6. PuntHOU8p · 28y
  7. PuntLV9p · 50y
  8. FGHOU10p · 52y
  9. PuntLV3p · 9y
  10. ½HOU1p · -1y
  11. PuntLV5p · 19y
  12. PuntHOU5p · 24y
  13. PuntLV3p · 9y
  14. FumHOU3p · -1y
  15. TDLV6p · 39y
  16. PuntHOU3p · -3y
  17. PuntLV4p · 10y
  18. PuntHOU3p · 9y
  19. TDLV12p · 93y
  20. —HOU1p
Ensemble breakdown
Live model · pick
Receipts
Player props

Team pages

Las Vegas RaidersatHouston Texans

Elsewhere in the NFL

  • 49ers3@Chargers012:53 - 2nd

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Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · HOU favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Qb Elo

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Dvoa Proxy

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

On the call · NFL

7 officials

Line Judge

Greg Bradley

Umpire

Paul King

Side Judge

Dale Shaw

Referee

Alan Eck

Down Judge

David Oliver

Back Judge

Grantis Bell

Field Judge

Justin Staehr

Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

58%Last 7 · 63-46
62%Last 30 · 293-180
Receipts →

QB · live passing line

ESPN leaders · live

F. Mendoza

LV · #15 · QB

86 yds8/15 · 0 TD · 1 INT

D. Mills

HOU · #10 · QB

93 yds11/15 · 0 TD · 0 INT

Recent plays · last 8

ESPN PBP · live
  1. LV · Rush2nd & 5 · +9 ydsQ4
  2. LV · Pass Incompletion1st & 10 · no gainQ4
  3. LV · Rushing Touchdown2nd & 10 · +19 ydsQ4
  4. LV · Official Timeout-1th & goal · no gainQ4
  5. HOU · Kickoff0th & goal · +22 ydsQ4
  6. HOU · Pass Incompletion1st & 10 · no gainQ4
  7. HOU · Rush2nd & 10 · +3 ydsQ4
  8. HOU · Pass Reception3rd & 7 · +6 ydsQ4
NFL·Thu, Aug 20·7:21 - 4th/VegasLV -2.5
Updated 0s ago

LV · top performer

LV
Fernando Mendoza

Fernando Mendoza

· #15

86Pass yds

8/15

C/A

0

TD

1

INT

HOU · top performer

HOU
Davis Mills

Davis Mills

· #10

93Pass yds

11/15

C/A

0

TD

0

INT

Game flowLV ↔ HOU

Recent swing: 9pp · —

NFL · Las Vegas Raiders at Houston Texans · live

NFL · Box score

7:21 - 4th

Passing

passing box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Fernando Mendoza · #15
8/158601
Aidan O'Connell · #12
8/156800
Team16/3014301

Rushing

rushing box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Mike Washington Jr. · #30
956033
Dylan Laube · #23
637113
Dare Ogunbowale · #32
435119
Roman Hemby · #37
52409
Deven Thompkins · #83
1404
Team25156233

Receiving

receiving box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Jalen Nailor · #9
122022
Ian Thomas · #80
319011
Malik Benson · #19
118018
Mike Washington Jr. · #30
21809
Chris Myarick · #41
117017
Dylan Laube · #23
114014
Noah Brown · #33
111011
Phillip Dorsett II · #13
110010
Connor Heyward · #34
1909
Deven Thompkins · #83
2905
E.J. Williams Jr. · #88
1606
Albert Okwuegbunam Jr. · #85
1101
Brandon Johnson · #82
0000
Dareke Young · #81
0000
Team16154022

Fumbles

fumbles box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Gary Smith III · #75
001
Team001

Defense

defensive box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Tristin McCollum · #27
7600
Patrick Johnson · #93
4312
Segun Olubi · #50
4300
Dalton Johnson · #43
4200
Treydan Stukes · #31
4201
Thomas Booker IV · #99
3212
Folorunso Fatukasi · #63
3100
Tommy Eichenberg · #44
3100
Cian Slone · #48
2200
Dare Ogunbowale · #32
2100
Buddy Johnson · #59
2100
Devin Lafayette · #40
2100
Cody Lindenberg · #55
2100
Chase Roberts · #86
2100
Brandon Cleveland · #90
2000
Jahfari Harvey · #91
1111
Cameron McGrone · #57
1100
Darien Porter · #26
1100
Xavian Sorey Jr. · #53
1100
Keyron Crawford · #42
1100
Hezekiah Masses · #35
1100
Jermod McCoy · #28
1100
Jonah Laulu · #96
1000
JJ Pegues · #92
1000
Gary Smith III · #75
1000
Decamerion Richardson · #25
1000
Patrick Gurd · #45
1000
Devyn Perkins · #49
1000
Team603436

Kick Returns

kickReturns box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Roman Hemby · #37
250250
Deven Thompkins · #83
123230
Team373250

Punt Returns

puntReturns box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Deven Thompkins · #83
212120
Team212120

Kicking

kicking box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Matt Gay · #14
1/1520/04
Kansei Matsuzawa · #38
0/001/21
Team1/1521/25

Punting

punting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
AJ Cole · #6
629949.82
Team629949.82

Passing

passing box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Davis Mills · #10
11/159300
Brett Rypien · #16
5/83800
C.J. Stroud · #7
4/62700
Team20/2913500

Rushing

rushing box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Woody Marks · #4
437120
Noah Whittington · #26
91108
Owen Wright · #42
3604
Davis Mills · #10
2203
Team1959120

Receiving

receiving box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Marlin Klein · #83
331017
Daniel Sobkowicz · #17O
230022
Foster Moreau · #87
223013
Jared Wayne · #89
213012
Justin Watson · #84
112012
Noah Whittington · #26
112012
Lewis Bond · #82
21208
Josh Kelly · #85
1808
Woody Marks · #4
1606
Owen Wright · #42
2604
Jha'Quan Jackson · #88
1303
Louis Hansen · #47
1303
Xavier Hutchinson · #19
1-10-1
Team20158022

Fumbles

fumbles box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Brett Rypien · #16
210
James Neal III · #70
001
Team211

Defense

defensive box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Jaylen Reed · #23
6400
Aiden Fisher · #59
6400
Bryce Hall · #34
5300
Brandon Codrington · #17D
5200
Stephen Hall · #41
4300
Alijah Huzzie · #28
4200
Jake Hummel · #33
4000
Kaevon Merriweather · #21
3200
Jaylin Smith · #22
3200
Marte Mapu · #14D
3000
Jamal Hill · #56
2100
Wade Woodaz · #30
2100
Kayden McDonald · #93
1111
Mario Edwards Jr. · #97
1100
Solomon Byrd · #50
1101
Josh Kelly · #85
1100
Kyonte Hamilton · #58
1100
Dominic Bailey · #73
1100
K.C. Ossai · #52
1100
Jadeveon Clowney · #90
1000
Reed Blankenship · #6
1000
Dylan Horton · #92
1000
Jared Wayne · #89
1000
Sabastian Harsh · #74
1000
Tremon Smith · #11D
0000
Naquan Jones · #91
0000
Team593112

Interceptions

interceptions box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Wade Woodaz · #30
1801
Team1801

Kick Returns

kickReturns box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Treyvhon Saunders · #14O
249270
Noah Whittington · #26
244230
Team493270

Punt Returns

puntReturns box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Jha'Quan Jackson · #88
1880
Alijah Huzzie · #28
1880
Treyvhon Saunders · #14O
1000
Team31680

Kicking

kicking box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Ka'imi Fairbairn · #15
2/2572/28
Team2/2572/28

Punting

punting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Kai Kroeger · #38
420050.02
Team420050.02

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

299

Total yds

194

156

Rush yds

59

1

TO

1

Team stats

LV

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

299

Total yards

194

156

Rushing yds

59

1

Turnovers

1

9-83

totalPenaltiesYards

3-20

27:35

possessionTime

25:04

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LV -2.5

Half-pt below key 3

Total

39.5

Defensive · -7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LVLV-13557%
HOUHOU+11447%

↗217· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LV -2.5↗SpreadBet LV -2.5↗

How it's going

HOU lead LV 20-16 (7:21 - 4th). Davis Mills led the way — 11/15 · 93 YDS · 89.0 QBR. HOU have outscored the other side 17-0 in the 1st quarter.

Linescore (quarters)

Team1234T
LV037616
HOU1730020

Betting line

LV -2.5·O/U 39.5·LV -135/HOU +114

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

39.5

-3.0 since open

Win probability

HOU vs LV

0255075100

Period scoring

LV won 2 · HOU won 1

0
17

Q1

3
3

Q2

7
0

Q3

6
0

Q4

LV
HOU

Play-by-play · 149 plays

event
  1. —

  2. —

    +3pp

  3. —

    +2pp

  4. —

    −1pp

  5. —

    +1pp

  6. —

    −3pp

  7. —

    −1pp

  8. —

    BIG MOMENT

    +6pp

  9. —

    +1pp

  10. —

    −2pp

  11. —

    +3pp

  12. —

    +1pp

  13. —

    BIG MOMENT

    +6pp

  14. —

  15. —

    −0.5pp

  16. —

    +2pp

  17. —

    +2pp

  18. —

    BIG MOMENT

    −5pp

  19. —

    BIG MOMENT

    −5pp

  20. —

    BIG MOMENT

    +23pp

  21. —

  22. —

    −1pp

  23. —

    +2pp

  24. —

  25. —

    +2pp

  26. —

  27. —

  28. —

    −2pp

  29. —

    +3pp

  30. —

    +2pp

Tale of the tape

Team rate stats · season-to-date

Tale of the tape

nflverse · weekly aggregates

LV

LV

league avg

HOU

HOU

15.9

Pts / game

23.5

▶

20.1

273

Yds / game

342

▶

342

195

Pass yds / G

225

▶

233

78

Rush yds / G

117

▶

109

1.2

TO / G

0.9

▶

0.6