
LV
0-1

HOU
0-1
NFL · Drive chart
20 drives · 3 TD · 3 FG · 1 Fum · 10 PuntTeam pages
Elsewhere in the NFL
Data via ESPN · nflverse · Next Gen Stats (via nflverse)
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · HOU favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Qb Elo
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Dvoa Proxy
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
On the call · NFL
7 officials
Line Judge
Greg Bradley
Umpire
Paul King
Side Judge
Dale Shaw
Referee
Alan Eck
Down Judge
David Oliver
Back Judge
Grantis Bell
Field Judge
Justin Staehr
Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.
QB · live passing line
ESPN leaders · liveF. Mendoza
LV · #15 · QB
D. Mills
HOU · #10 · QB
Recent plays · last 8
ESPN PBP · liveLV · top performer

Fernando Mendoza
· #15
8/15
C/A
0
TD
1
INT
HOU · top performer

Davis Mills
· #10
11/15
C/A
0
TD
0
INT
Recent swing: 9pp · —
NFL · Box score
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/15 | 86 | 0 | 1 | |
| 8/15 | 68 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 16/30 | 143 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 56 | 0 | 33 | |
| 6 | 37 | 1 | 13 | |
| 4 | 35 | 1 | 19 | |
| 5 | 24 | 0 | 9 | |
| 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | |
| Team | 25 | 156 | 2 | 33 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | 0 | 22 | |
| 3 | 19 | 0 | 11 | |
| 1 | 18 | 0 | 18 | |
| 2 | 18 | 0 | 9 | |
| 1 | 17 | 0 | 17 | |
| 1 | 14 | 0 | 14 | |
| 1 | 11 | 0 | 11 | |
| 1 | 10 | 0 | 10 | |
| 1 | 9 | 0 | 9 | |
| 2 | 9 | 0 | 5 | |
| 1 | 6 | 0 | 6 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 16 | 154 | 0 | 22 |
| Player | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 60 | 34 | 3 | 6 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 50 | 25 | 0 | |
| 1 | 23 | 23 | 0 | |
| Team | 3 | 73 | 25 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 12 | 12 | 0 | |
| Team | 2 | 12 | 12 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/1 | 52 | 0/0 | 4 | |
| 0/0 | 0 | 1/2 | 1 | |
| Team | 1/1 | 52 | 1/2 | 5 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 299 | 49.8 | 2 | |
| Team | 6 | 299 | 49.8 | 2 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/15 | 93 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5/8 | 38 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4/6 | 27 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 20/29 | 135 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 37 | 1 | 20 | |
| 9 | 11 | 0 | 8 | |
| 3 | 6 | 0 | 4 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Team | 19 | 59 | 1 | 20 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 31 | 0 | 17 | |
| 2 | 30 | 0 | 22 | |
| 2 | 23 | 0 | 13 | |
| 2 | 13 | 0 | 12 | |
| 1 | 12 | 0 | 12 | |
| 1 | 12 | 0 | 12 | |
| 2 | 12 | 0 | 8 | |
| 1 | 8 | 0 | 8 | |
| 1 | 6 | 0 | 6 | |
| 2 | 6 | 0 | 4 | |
| 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| 1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | |
| Team | 20 | 158 | 0 | 22 |
| Player | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 59 | 31 | 1 | 2 |
| Player | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 80 | 1 | |
| Team | 1 | 80 | 1 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 49 | 27 | 0 | |
| 2 | 44 | 23 | 0 | |
| Team | 4 | 93 | 27 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | |
| 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 3 | 16 | 8 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/2 | 57 | 2/2 | 8 | |
| Team | 2/2 | 57 | 2/2 | 8 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 200 | 50.0 | 2 | |
| Team | 4 | 200 | 50.0 | 2 |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
299
Total yds
194
156
Rush yds
59
1
TO
1
Team stats
LV
Away
Stat
HOU
Home
299
Total yards
194
156
Rushing yds
59
1
Turnovers
1
9-83
totalPenaltiesYards
3-20
27:35
possessionTime
25:04
Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
LV -2.5
Half-pt below key 3
Total
39.5
Defensive · -7.5 vs avg
Moneyline
217· 6.1h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
How it's going
HOU lead LV 20-16 (7:21 - 4th). Davis Mills led the way — 11/15 · 93 YDS · 89.0 QBR. HOU have outscored the other side 17-0 in the 1st quarter.
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | 0 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 16 |
| HOU | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
Betting line
LV -2.5·O/U 39.5·LV -135/HOU +114
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
2.5
0.0 since open
Total
39.5
-3.0 since open
Win probability
HOU vs LV
Period scoring
LV won 2 · HOU won 1
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Play-by-play · 149 plays
+3pp
+2pp
−1pp
+1pp
−3pp
−1pp
BIG MOMENT
+6pp
+1pp
−2pp
+3pp
+1pp
BIG MOMENT
+6pp
−0.5pp
+2pp
+2pp
BIG MOMENT
−5pp
BIG MOMENT
−5pp
BIG MOMENT
+23pp
−1pp
+2pp
+2pp
−2pp
+3pp
+2pp
Team rate stats · season-to-date
nflverse · weekly aggregates
LV
league avg
HOU
15.9
Pts / game
23.5
▶20.1
273
Yds / game
342
▶342
195
Pass yds / G
225
▶233
78
Rush yds / G
117
▶109
1.2
TO / G
0.9
▶0.6