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THE ONE Analytics
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Las Vegas Raiders at Houston Texans

LV
LV

LV

PregameThu, 8:00 PM EDT
HOU
HOU

HOU

NRG Stadium · Houston, TX

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

ATS form

60.0%

HOU last 10 against the number

HOU has covered consistently lately, backing market trust before kickoff today again.

⤓

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 58-38
60%Last 30 · 288-191
Receipts →

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · HOU favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Qb Elo

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Dvoa Proxy

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

CHAMPION · NBANew York Knicks win the NBA Finals 4-1
CHAMPION · NHLCarolina Hurricanes win the Stanley Cup Final 4-2
LAST NIGHT · MLBJ. Wetherholt (STL): 3 H · 2 HR · 3 RBI in a win over KC
LAST NIGHT · MLBJ. Caglianone (KC): 2 H · 2 HR · 3 RBI against STL
TRANSACTION · MLBBraves: Went C Sandy Leon outright to Gwinnett (IL) (Jun 21)
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Contreras (MIL): 4 H · 1 HR · 3 RBI in a win over ATL
LAST NIGHT · MLBI. Herrera (STL): 3 H · 1 HR · 3 RBI in a win over KC
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 1B Trey Mancini outright to Salt Lake (PCL) (Jun 21)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAN. Ogwumike (LA): 24 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST in a win over NY
LAST NIGHT · WNBAO. Miles (MIN): 22 PTS · 5 REB · 6 AST against WSH
TRANSACTION · MLBGuardians: Sent LF George Valera outright to Columbus (IL) (Jun 21)
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed F/G Haley Jones to a player development contract (Jun 21)
TRANSACTION · NHLKraken: Acquired F Mackie Samoskevich from Florida in exchange for a 2026 first-round dra…
TRANSACTION · NHLPanthers: Acquired a 2026 first-round draft pick and a conditional 2027 second-round draf…
TONIGHT · WNBATOR @ ATL, 6/22 - 7:30 PM EDT — ATL -13.5
CHAMPION · NBANew York Knicks win the NBA Finals 4-1
CHAMPION · NHLCarolina Hurricanes win the Stanley Cup Final 4-2
LAST NIGHT · MLBJ. Wetherholt (STL): 3 H · 2 HR · 3 RBI in a win over KC
LAST NIGHT · MLBJ. Caglianone (KC): 2 H · 2 HR · 3 RBI against STL
TRANSACTION · MLBBraves: Went C Sandy Leon outright to Gwinnett (IL) (Jun 21)
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Contreras (MIL): 4 H · 1 HR · 3 RBI in a win over ATL
LAST NIGHT · MLBI. Herrera (STL): 3 H · 1 HR · 3 RBI in a win over KC
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 1B Trey Mancini outright to Salt Lake (PCL) (Jun 21)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAN. Ogwumike (LA): 24 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST in a win over NY
LAST NIGHT · WNBAO. Miles (MIN): 22 PTS · 5 REB · 6 AST against WSH
TRANSACTION · MLBGuardians: Sent LF George Valera outright to Columbus (IL) (Jun 21)
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed F/G Haley Jones to a player development contract (Jun 21)
TRANSACTION · NHLKraken: Acquired F Mackie Samoskevich from Florida in exchange for a 2026 first-round dra…
TRANSACTION · NHLPanthers: Acquired a 2026 first-round draft pick and a conditional 2027 second-round draf…
TONIGHT · WNBATOR @ ATL, 6/22 - 7:30 PM EDT — ATL -13.5

Team rate stats · season-to-date

Tale of the tape

nflverse · weekly aggregates

LV

LV

league avg

HOU

HOU

15.9

Pts / game

23.5

▶

20.1

273

Yds / game

342

▶

342

195

Pass yds / G

225

▶

233

78

Rush yds / G

117

▶

109

1.2

TO / G

0.9

▶

0.6

NFL·Thu, Aug 20·8/20 - 8:00 PM EDT
Updated 0s ago

Scouting report

LV @ HOU

8/20 - 8:00 PM EDT
StorylineHOU on a 9-game roll.

Offensive efficiency · 2025 season

17 / 17 weeks

273

-69.5 vs avg

Yards / game

342

-0.4 vs avg

195

-30.0 vs avg

Pass yds / game

233

+7.7 vs avg

78

-39.4 vs avg

Rush yds / game

109

-8.0 vs avg

15.9

-7.6 vs avg

Off TD pts / game

20.1

-3.4 vs avg

1.20

-0.3 vs avg

Turnovers / game

0.60

+0.3 vs avg

Tale of the tape

LVmetricHOU

3-14

Record

12-5

#14

Conf rank

#5

-191.0

Pt diff

+109.0

W1

Streak

W9

—

Last 10

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Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.