
SF
0-1

LAC
1-0
NFL · Drive chart
13 drives · 1 TD · 3 FG · 1 Downs · 7 PuntModel ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · LAC favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight
Qb Elo
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight
Dvoa Proxy
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Team rate stats · season-to-date
nflverse · weekly aggregates
SF
league avg
LAC
28.6
Pts / game
23.5
21.9
361
Yds / game
342
354
254
Pass yds / G
225
233
107
Rush yds / G
117
▶122
1.1
TO / G
0.9
▶1.0
Team pages
Elsewhere in the NFL
Data via ESPN · nflverse · Next Gen Stats (via nflverse)
On the call · NFL
7 officials
Side Judge
Frank Steratore
Down Judge
Max Causey
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Back Judge
Rich Martinez
Umpire
Brandon Cruse
Field Judge
Jeff Shears
Down Judge
John Braun
Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.
QB · live passing line
ESPN leaders · liveM. Jones
SF · #10 · QB
T. Lance
LAC · #5 · QB
Recent plays · last 8
ESPN PBP · liveSF · top performer

Mac Jones
· #10
6/13
C/A
0
TD
0
INT
LAC · top performer

Trey Lance
· #5
10/16
C/A
0
TD
0
INT
Recent swing: 13pp · —
NFL · Box score
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/13 | 89 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4/6 | 29 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 10/19 | 118 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 49 | 1 | 37 | |
| 8 | 33 | 0 | 9 | |
| 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 17 | 90 | 1 | 37 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 46 | 0 | 21 | |
| 1 | 24 | 0 | 24 | |
| 1 | 20 | 0 | 20 | |
| 1 | 13 | 0 | 13 | |
| 1 | 7 | 0 | 7 | |
| 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | |
| 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 10 | 118 | 0 | 24 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 31 | 21 | 0 | 2 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 86 | 83 | 1 | |
| Team | 2 | 86 | 83 | 1 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/2 | 48 | 2/2 | 8 | |
| Team | 2/2 | 48 | 2/2 | 8 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 147 | 49.0 | 0 | |
| Team | 3 | 147 | 49.0 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/16 | 73 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1/2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 11/18 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 42 | 0 | 37 | |
| 4 | 6 | 0 | 3 | |
| 3 | -1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | |
| Team | 10 | 46 | 0 | 37 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16 | 0 | 16 | |
| 2 | 14 | 0 | 8 | |
| 1 | 11 | 0 | 11 | |
| 2 | 10 | 0 | 5 | |
| 1 | 9 | 0 | 9 | |
| 1 | 9 | 0 | 9 | |
| 1 | 8 | 0 | 8 | |
| 2 | 5 | 0 | 3 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 11 | 82 | 0 | 16 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 31 | 23 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30 | 30 | 0 | |
| 1 | 27 | 27 | 0 | |
| 1 | 25 | 25 | 0 | |
| Team | 3 | 82 | 30 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 15 | 11 | 0 | |
| Team | 2 | 15 | 11 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/1 | 21 | 0/0 | 3 | |
| Team | 1/1 | 21 | 0/0 | 3 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 248 | 49.6 | 3 | |
| Team | 5 | 248 | 49.6 | 3 |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
208
Total yds
128
90
Rush yds
46
0
TO
0
Team stats
SF
Away
Stat
LAC
Home
208
Total yards
128
90
Rushing yds
46
0
Turnovers
0
5-36
totalPenaltiesYards
4-20
15:09
possessionTime
14:51
Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
LAC -1.5
Between — and 3
Total
38.5
Defensive · -8.5 vs avg
1.0pt· 6.1h
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
38.5
-1.0 since open
How it's going
SF lead LAC 20-3 (Halftime). Mac Jones led the way — 6/13 · 89 YDS · 69.1 QBR. SF have outscored the other side 20-3 in the 2nd quarter.
Win probability
LAC vs SF
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| LAC | 0 | 3 | 3 |
Period scoring
SF won 1 · LAC won 0
Q1
Q2
Play-by-play · 101 plays
+3pp
−2pp
+3pp
−5pp
+2pp
−0.7pp
−0.8pp
+3pp
+0.8pp
−3pp
−3pp
+2pp
−3pp
+2pp
+3pp
−3pp
+2pp
+3pp
+2pp
−1pp
BIG MOMENT
−5pp
+1pp
Betting line
LAC -1.5·O/U 38.5·SF +105/LAC -125