ATS form
70.0%
NE last 10 against the number
NE has covered consistently lately, backing market trust before kickoff today again.
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Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
BUF
BUF
PregameSun, 4:25 PM EST
NE
NE
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketDrill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · NE favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NE win)
33%
weight
Qb Elo
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NE win)
33%
weight
Dvoa Proxy
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NE win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Team rate stats · season-to-date
Tale of the tape
nflverse · weekly aggregates
BUF
league avg
NE
31.1
Pts / game
◀
23.5
29.6
394
Yds / game
342
391
234
Pass yds / G
225
▶262
160
Rush yds / G
◀
117
129
1.0
TO / G
0.9
▶0.8
Data via ESPN · nflverse · Next Gen Stats (via nflverse)