Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs: NFL Prediction, Pick & Odds — Sep 20, 2026

IND

PregameSun, 8:20 PM EDT

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Kansas City, MO

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

ATS form

40.0%

IND last 10 against the number

IND has covered consistently lately, backing market trust before kickoff today again.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · KC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Qb Elo
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Dvoa Proxy
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Team rate stats · season-to-date

Tale of the tape

nflverse · weekly aggregates

IND

league avg

27.2

Pts / game

◀

23.5

21.5

358

Yds / game

◀

342

339

240

Pass yds / G

◀

225

232

118

Rush yds / G

◀

117

107

0.9

TO / G

0.9

▶

0.8

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs

3 sub-models, blended.

Tale of the tape

3 sub-models, blended.

Tale of the tape