Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys: NFL Prediction, Pick & Odds — Sep 20, 2026

WSH

PregameSun, 4:25 PM EDT

DAL

AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Qb Elo
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Dvoa Proxy
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Team rate stats · season-to-date

Tale of the tape

nflverse · weekly aggregates

WSH

league avg

DAL

20.5

Pts / game

23.5

▶

28.2

331

Yds / game

342

▶

404

196

Pass yds / G

225

▶

279

135

Rush yds / G

◀

117

126

1.1

TO / G

◀

0.9

1.2

Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys

3 sub-models, blended.

Tale of the tape

3 sub-models, blended.

Tale of the tape