May 24, 26sim 90
2582
24(H)103
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+15OKC
OKC
64-18
123108
SA
62-20
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 50 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NBA
klahoma City Thunder went into San Antonio Spurs and beat them, 123–108.
OKC +3.5 cashed (SA lost outright). Total cleared the 219.5 OVER by 11.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
OKC · top performer
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
G · #2
23.4Game score
26
Pts
2
Reb
12
Ast
SA · top performer
Devin Vassell
G · #24
20.7Game score
20
Pts
7
Reb
2
Ast
NBA · Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
OKC64-18
123108
SA62-20
OKC64-18SA62-20
OKC
64-18
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 21 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | |
| 28 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | |
| 36 | 26 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +11 | |
| 23 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -9 | |
| 17 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | |
| 22 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +22 | |
| 24 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +28 | |
| 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | |
| 28 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +8 | |
| 27 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +28 | |
| Team | 123 | 41 | 29 | 7 | 2 | 10 | ||
SA
62-20
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 35 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -4 | |
| 39 | 26 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +4 | |
| 31 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +9 | |
DRIVES14.885 DEFL379 TOUCHES65.164 | ||||||||
| 36 | 20 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
DEFL2.552 CONT4.130 DRIVES3.818 | ||||||||
| 35 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -17 | |
TOUCHES71.573 DRIVES12.371 CONT4.848 | ||||||||
| 12 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -23 | |
| 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -10 | |
| 13 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -18 | |
| 17 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -13 | |
| Team | 108 | 37 | 26 | 8 | 6 | 15 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
43
29
Ast
26
Playoff series
OKC leads series 2-1
May 19SA122@OKC115
SA122@OKC115May 21SA113@OKC122
SA113@OKC122May 23OKC123@SA108today
OKC123@SA108todayMay 25OKC82@SA103
OKC82@SA103May 27SA114@OKC127
SA114@OKC127May 29OKC91@SA118
OKC91@SA118May 31SA111@OKC103
SA111@OKC103Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
SA -3.5
Between — and 5
Total
219.5
Standard · -6.5 vs avg
Moneyline
OKC+12445%SA-14860%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
3.5
0.0 since open
Total
219.5
+2.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Game flowOKC ↔ SA
Biggest swing: 21pp · 2nd Quarter · 7:54
OKCS. Gilgeous-Alexander
GGame leader · 36 min
26 PTS · 2 REB · 12 AST
SAD. Vassell
GGame leader · 36 min
20 PTS · 7 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
OKC beat SA 123-108. S. Gilgeous-Alexander paced them with 26 PTS, 2 REB, 12 AST. OKC outscored the other side 32-20 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
SA vs OKC
Starters vs bench
production by unitOKCstarters 38% of ptsStarters(5)
47 PTS · 23 REB · 21 AST
GS 38
Bench(8)
76 PTS · 18 REB · 8 AST
GS 66
SAstarters 79% of ptsStarters(5)
85 PTS · 28 REB · 20 AST
GS 75
Bench(10)
23 PTS · 9 REB · 6 AST
GS 7
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactOKC2nd Quarter · 7:54 · 41-39
+21pp→ 54% WP
Harrison Barnes · misses 23-foot three point jumper
SA2nd Quarter · 12:00 · 26-31
+13pp→ 67% WP
Stephon Castle · enters the game for Devin Vassell
SA1st Quarter · 1:44 · 22-27
+11pp→ 65% WP
Victor Wembanyama · lost ball turnover (Jaylin Williams steals)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 26 | 32 | 37 | 28 | 123 |
| SA | 31 | 20 | 33 | 24 | 108 |
Period scoring
OKC won 3 · SA won 1
26
31
Q1
Williams 8
Fox 9
32
20
Q2
Gilgeous-Alexander 9
Vassell 19
37
33
Q3
Gilgeous-Alexander 12
Wembanyama 9
28
24
Q4
McCain 9
Wembanyama 7
OKC
SA
Shooting comparison
OKC
SA
48%
39-81
FG
43%
34-80
45%
17-38
3PT
32%
13-41
85%
28-33
FT
82%
27-33
Play-by-play · 528 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
OKC 123·SA 108
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
OKC 123·SA 108
- Q4·12.8
Kelly Olynyk makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mason Plumlee assists)
·
OKC 123·SA 108
- Q4·25.8
Kenrich Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Joe assists)
· ·
OKC 123·SA 105
- Q4·47.4
Mason Plumlee makes layup (Jordan McLaughlin assists)
·
OKC 120·SA 105
- Q4·1:10
Kenrich Williams makes tip shot
·
OKC 120·SA 103
- Q4·1:10
Kenrich Williams offensive rebound
·
OKC 118·SA 103
- Q4·1:10
Mason Plumlee blocks Nikola Topic 's 2-foot two point shot
·
OKC 118·SA 103
- Q4·1:30
Kenrich Williams enters the game for Isaiah Hartenstein
· ·
OKC 118·SA 103
- Q4·1:30
Isaiah Joe enters the game for Cason Wallace
·
OKC 118·SA 103
- Q4·1:30
Nikola Topic enters the game for Alex Caruso
·
OKC 118·SA 103
- Q4·1:30
Aaron Wiggins enters the game for Jared McCain
·
OKC 118·SA 103
- Q4·1:30
Jaylin Williams enters the game for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
· ·
OKC 118·SA 103
- Q4·1:30
Kelly Olynyk offensive foul turnover
OKC 118·SA 103
- Q4·1:30
Kelly Olynyk offensive foul
OKC 118·SA 103
- Q4·1:31
Jordan McLaughlin defensive rebound
OKC 118·SA 103
- Q4·1:34
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses two point shot
OKC 118·SA 103
- Q4·1:38
Kelly Olynyk lost ball turnover (Cason Wallace steals)
·
OKC 118·SA 103
- Q4·1:51
Jared McCain makes free throw 2 of 2
OKC 118·SA 103
- Q4·1:51
Mason Plumlee enters the game for De'Aaron Fox
·
OKC 117·SA 103
- Q4·1:51
Lindy Waters III enters the game for Julian Champagnie
·
OKC 117·SA 103
- Q4·1:51
Bismack Biyombo enters the game for Devin Vassell
·
OKC 117·SA 103
- Q4·1:51
Kelly Olynyk enters the game for Stephon Castle
·
OKC 117·SA 103
- Q4·1:51
Jordan McLaughlin enters the game for Victor Wembanyama
·
OKC 117·SA 103
- Q4·1:51
Jared McCain makes free throw 1 of 2
OKC 117·SA 103
- Q4·1:51
Julian Champagnie personal take foul
OKC 116·SA 103
- Q4·2:02
Cason Wallace defensive rebound
OKC 116·SA 103
- Q4·2:07
Stephon Castle misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
OKC 116·SA 103
- Q4·2:28
Cason Wallace makes 24-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
·
OKC 116·SA 103
−0.9pp
- Q4·2:44
Victor Wembanyama makes 2-foot two point shot (Devin Vassell assists)
·
OKC 113·SA 103
Team stats
OKC
Away
Stat
SA
Home
39-81
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
34-80
48
FG %
43
17-38
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
13-41
28-33
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
27-33
29
Assists
26
10
Turnovers
15
Betting line
SA -3.5·O/U 219.5·OKC +124/SA -148
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 16 players in cohort
De'Aaron FoxSA · GDRIVES14.885
Stephon CastleSA · GTOUCHES71.573
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
13.4%
ensemble · OKC favored
Elo Static
36.7%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
36.2%
P(SA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
33.4%
P(SA win)
32%
weight
Disagreement
1.44 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
90% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
-2.16
CLV pp · steam
Open price
-105
Close price
+105
Open no-vig
48.9%
Close no-vig
46.8%
Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+42.4pp
best edge · OKC · DraftKings
OKC
★ best+124DraftKings
edge +42.4pp · implied 42.8%
SA
no live price
| Book | OKC | SA | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +124★ | -148 | +42.4 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player projections
SA vs OKC.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
170
projections · 155 high confidence
Points
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC27.7± 6.8high
- Victor WembanyamaSA25.4± 6.7high
- Stephon CastleSA18.4± 5.9high
Rebounds
- Victor WembanyamaSA11.1± 6.4high
- Isaiah HartensteinOKC8.6± 3.9high
- Chet HolmgrenOKC8.0± 3.0high
Assists
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC7.6± 3.1high
- Stephon CastleSA7.0± 2.1high
- De'Aaron FoxSA5.9± 1.8high
Blocks
- Victor WembanyamaSA2.9± 0.8high
- Chet HolmgrenOKC1.4± 0.9high
- Branden CarlsonOKC0.9± 1.6high
Steals
- Cason WallaceOKC2.0± 1.0high
- Alex CarusoOKC1.5± 1.1high
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC1.5± 1.5high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands