Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in OKC at SA?

The model favors OKC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+15OKC

OKC

64-18

123108

62-20

NBAFri, May 22FinalSeriesSA wins series 4-1VegasSA -3.5

OKC · top performer

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

G · #2

23.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SA · top performer

Devin Vassell

G · #24

20.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowOKC ↔ SA

Biggest swing: 21pp · 2nd Quarter · 7:54

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
I. HartensteinC · #55	21	5	2-4	0-1	1-2	-6	8	4
C. HolmgrenC · #7	28	14	5-7	1-2	3-4	-2	3	1
S. Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #2	36	26	6-17	2-4	12-12	+11	2	12
L. DortG · #5	23	0	0-1	0-1	—	-9	5	3
A. MitchellG · #25	17	2	1-5	0-1	—	-3	5	1
Bench
Jay. WilliamsF · #6	22	18	5-7	5-6	3-3	+22	5	1
A. CarusoG · #9	24	15	4-7	3-5	4-6	+28	3	1
K. WilliamsG · #34	2	5	2-2	1-1	—	0	1	0
I. JoeG · #11	9	3	1-1	1-1	—	-2	0	1
A. WigginsG · #21	2	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
C. WallaceG · #22	28	11	3-8	2-6	3-4	+8	5	4
J. McCainG · #3	27	24	10-21	2-10	2-2	+28	4	1
N. TopicG · #44	1	0	0-1	—	—	0	0	0
Team		123	39-81	17-38	28-33		41	29

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	35	10	4-10	2-8	—	-4	5	2
V. WembanyamaF · #1	39	26	8-15	2-5	8-10	+4	4	3
D. FoxG · #4	31	15	7-14	1-6	—	+9	7	6
D. VassellG · #24	36	20	6-12	3-6	5-5	-5	7	2
S. CastleG · #5	35	14	1-8	1-5	11-14	-17	5	7
Bench
H. BarnesF · #40	3	0	0-1	0-1	—	+2	0	0
K. OlynykF · #8	2	3	1-1	1-1	—	0	0	0
L. Waters IIIF · #43	2	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
K. JohnsonF · #3	12	5	1-5	1-4	2-2	-23	2	0
C. BryantF · #11	10	3	1-3	1-2	—	-10	1	1
B. BiyomboC · #18	2	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
M. PlumleeC · #45	2	2	1-1	—	—	0	0	1
L. KornetC · #7	13	4	2-3	—	—	-18	2	1
J. McLaughlinG · #0	2	0	—	—	—	0	1	1
D. HarperG · #2	17	6	2-7	1-3	1-2	-13	3	2
Team		108	34-80	13-41	27-33		37	26

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

OKC

Away

Stat

Home

39-81

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

34-80

FG %

17-38

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-41

28-33

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

27-33

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

OKC leads series 2-1

May 19

SA122@

OKC115

May 21

SA113@

OKC122

May 23

OKC123@

SA108today

May 25

OKC82@

SA103

May 27

SA114@

OKC127

May 29

OKC91@

SA118

May 31

SA111@

OKC103

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

219.5

Standard · -6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

OKC+12445%

SA-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -3.5↗SpreadBet SA -3.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

219.5

+2.0 since open

How it ended

OKC beat SA 123-108. S. Gilgeous-Alexander paced them with 26 PTS, 2 REB, 12 AST. OKC outscored the other side 32-20 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SA vs OKC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

OKCstarters 38% of pts

Starters(5)

47 PTS · 23 REB · 21 AST

GS 38

Bench(8)

76 PTS · 18 REB · 8 AST

GS 66

SAstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 28 REB · 20 AST

GS 75

Bench(10)

23 PTS · 9 REB · 6 AST

GS 7

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

OKC2nd Quarter · 7:54 · 41-39

+21pp→ 54% WP

Harrison Barnes · misses 23-foot three point jumper

SA2nd Quarter · 12:00 · 26-31

+13pp→ 67% WP

Stephon Castle · enters the game for Devin Vassell

SA1st Quarter · 1:44 · 22-27

+11pp→ 65% WP

Victor Wembanyama · lost ball turnover (Jaylin Williams steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
OKC	26	32	37	28	123
SA	31	20	33	24	108

Period scoring

OKC won 3 · SA won 1

Williams 8

Fox 9

Gilgeous-Alexander 9

Vassell 19

Gilgeous-Alexander 12

Wembanyama 9

McCain 9

Wembanyama 7

OKC

Shooting comparison

OKC

48%

39-81

43%

34-80

45%

17-38

3PT

32%

13-41

85%

28-33

82%

27-33

Play-by-play · 528 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
OKC 123·SA 108
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
OKC 123·SA 108
Q4·12.8
Kelly Olynyk makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mason Plumlee assists)
·
OKC 123·SA 108
Q4·25.8
Kenrich Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Joe assists)
· ·
OKC 123·SA 105
Q4·47.4
Mason Plumlee makes layup (Jordan McLaughlin assists)
·
OKC 120·SA 105
Q4·1:10
Kenrich Williams makes tip shot
·
OKC 120·SA 103
Q4·1:10
Kenrich Williams offensive rebound
·
OKC 118·SA 103
Q4·1:10
Mason Plumlee blocks Nikola Topic 's 2-foot two point shot
·
OKC 118·SA 103
Q4·1:30
Kenrich Williams enters the game for Isaiah Hartenstein
· ·
OKC 118·SA 103
Q4·1:30
Isaiah Joe enters the game for Cason Wallace
·
OKC 118·SA 103
Q4·1:30
Nikola Topic enters the game for Alex Caruso
·
OKC 118·SA 103
Q4·1:30
Aaron Wiggins enters the game for Jared McCain
·
OKC 118·SA 103
Q4·1:30
Jaylin Williams enters the game for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
· ·
OKC 118·SA 103
Q4·1:30
Kelly Olynyk offensive foul turnover
OKC 118·SA 103
Q4·1:30
Kelly Olynyk offensive foul
OKC 118·SA 103
Q4·1:31
Jordan McLaughlin defensive rebound
OKC 118·SA 103
Q4·1:34
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses two point shot
OKC 118·SA 103
Q4·1:38
Kelly Olynyk lost ball turnover (Cason Wallace steals)
·
OKC 118·SA 103
Q4·1:51
Jared McCain makes free throw 2 of 2
OKC 118·SA 103
Q4·1:51
Mason Plumlee enters the game for De'Aaron Fox
·
OKC 117·SA 103
Q4·1:51
Lindy Waters III enters the game for Julian Champagnie
·
OKC 117·SA 103
Q4·1:51
Bismack Biyombo enters the game for Devin Vassell
·
OKC 117·SA 103
Q4·1:51
Kelly Olynyk enters the game for Stephon Castle
·
OKC 117·SA 103
Q4·1:51
Jordan McLaughlin enters the game for Victor Wembanyama
·
OKC 117·SA 103
Q4·1:51
Jared McCain makes free throw 1 of 2
OKC 117·SA 103
Q4·1:51
Julian Champagnie personal take foul
OKC 116·SA 103
Q4·2:02
Cason Wallace defensive rebound
OKC 116·SA 103
Q4·2:07
Stephon Castle misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
OKC 116·SA 103
Q4·2:28
Cason Wallace makes 24-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
·
OKC 116·SA 103
−0.9pp
Q4·2:44
Victor Wembanyama makes 2-foot two point shot (Devin Vassell assists)
·
OKC 113·SA 103

Betting line

SA -3.5·O/U 219.5·OKC +124/SA -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

klahoma City Thunder went into San Antonio Spurs and beat them, 123–108.

OKC +3.5 cashed (SA lost outright). Total cleared the 219.5 OVER by 11.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
Chet HolmgrenOKC · C
CONT10.799+
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · G
DRIVES18.399
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Ajay MitchellOKC · G
DRIVES14.797

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

34.3%

ensemble · OKC favored

Elo Static
36.7%
P(SA win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
32.2%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
34.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.86 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.16

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-105

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in OKC at SA?: The model favors OKC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+20.5pp

best edge · OKC · DraftKings

OKC

★ best

+124DraftKings

edge +20.5pp · implied 42.8%

no live price

Book	OKC	SA	Best edge
DraftKings	+124★	-148	+20.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

SA vs OKC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 115 high confidence

Points

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
27.7± 6.8high
Tobias HarrisSA
16.3± 7.8high
Stephon CastleSA
16.2± 5.2high

Rebounds

Isaiah HartensteinOKC
8.6± 3.9high
Chet HolmgrenOKC
8.0± 3.0high
Tobias HarrisSA
6.4± 1.8high

Assists

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
7.6± 3.1high
De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high

Blocks

Chet HolmgrenOKC
1.4± 0.9high
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
0.8± 0.8high
Isaiah HartensteinOKC
0.6± 0.8high

Steals

Cason WallaceOKC
2.0± 1.0high
Alex CarusoOKC
1.5± 1.1high
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
1.5± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

OKC

league avg

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

55.3%

48.2%

FG%

47.0

47.7%

118.5

PPG

114.9

118.2

25.8

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.3

11.9

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR