Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SA at MIN?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+30SA

62-20

139109

MIN

49-33

NBAFri, May 15FinalSeriesMIN wins series 2-1VegasSA -5.5

SA · top performer

Stephon Castle

G · #5

30.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIN · top performer

Naz Reid

C · #11

14.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSA ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 11:15

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	26	18	5-10	4-9	4-4	+35	5	2
V. WembanyamaF · #1	27	19	6-11	0-2	7-9	+25	6	2
D. FoxG · #4	24	21	8-10	3-3	2-2	+26	4	9
D. VassellG · #24	27	11	4-10	3-7	—	+14	5	4
S. CastleG · #5	30	32	11-16	5-7	5-6	+28	11	6
Bench
H. BarnesF · #40	7	3	1-3	1-3	—	+7	4	2
K. OlynykF · #8	8	3	1-4	1-2	—	-3	4	1
L. Waters IIIF · #43	8	2	1-3	0-1	—	-3	1	1
K. JohnsonF · #3	10	0	0-2	—	—	-8	0	2
C. BryantF · #11	13	3	1-3	0-1	1-2	+16	6	1
B. BiyomboC · #18	7	2	1-2	—	—	-5	0	0
M. PlumleeC · #45	5	2	1-2	—	—	-3	2	0
L. KornetC · #7	14	6	2-3	—	2-2	+8	6	1
J. McLaughlinG · #0	8	2	1-1	—	—	-3	1	1
D. HarperG · #2	26	15	6-8	1-3	2-2	+16	5	2
Team		139	49-88	18-38	23-27		60	34

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. RandleF · #30	24	3	1-8	0-2	1-2	-34	7	1
J. McDanielsF · #3	23	13	4-13	2-4	3-3	-21	1	3
R. GobertC · #27	22	0	0-4	—	—	-10	3	0
A. DosunmuG · #13	23	10	4-8	0-1	2-2	-28	1	9
A. EdwardsG · #5	36	24	9-26	2-7	4-7	-31	2	2
Bench
K. AndersonF · #12	8	2	1-3	—	—	+3	0	3
J. PhillipsF · #4	8	3	1-2	1-2	—	+3	0	1
J. BeringerF · #19	8	4	2-3	—	—	+3	2	0
N. ReidC · #11	32	18	7-13	3-7	1-1	-15	7	1
M. ConleyG · #10	19	6	2-3	2-3	—	-5	0	4
J. ClarkG · #22	8	2	0-2	0-1	2-2	+3	3	0
T. Shannon Jr.G · #1	22	21	8-15	1-3	4-4	-21	2	1
B. HylandG · #8	8	3	1-6	1-4	—	+3	1	0
Team		109	40-106	12-34	17-21		29	25
DNP: J. Ingles

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

49-88

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-106

FG %

18-38

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-34

23-27

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-21

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

SA wins series 4-2

May 5

MIN104@

SA102

May 7

MIN95@

SA133

May 9

SA115@

MIN108

May 10

SA109@

MIN114

May 13

MIN97@

SA126

May 16

SA139@

MIN109today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

1.0pt· 6h

Total

219.5

Standard · -6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SA-22569%

MIN+18535%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -5.5↗SpreadBet SA -5.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

+1.0 since open

Total

219.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SA beat MIN 139-109. S. Castle paced them with 32 PTS, 11 REB, 6 AST. SA outscored the other side 36-23 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIN vs SA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SAstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

101 PTS · 31 REB · 23 AST

GS 94

Bench(10)

38 PTS · 29 REB · 11 AST

GS 36

MINstarters 46% of pts

Starters(5)

50 PTS · 14 REB · 15 AST

GS 25

Bench(8)

59 PTS · 15 REB · 10 AST

GS 51

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SA	36	38	36	29	139
MIN	27	34	23	25	109

Period scoring

SA won 4 · MIN won 0

Castle 14

Reid 10

Wembanyama 9

Edwards 12

Castle 11

McDaniels 11

Champagnie 9

Dosunmu 6

MIN

Shooting comparison

MIN

56%

49-88

38%

40-106

47%

18-38

3PT

35%

12-34

85%

23-27

81%

17-21

Play-by-play · 514 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SA 139·MIN 109
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SA 139·MIN 109
Q4·12.7
shot clock turnover
SA 139·MIN 109
Q4·26.7
Bones Hyland personal foul
SA 139·MIN 109
Q4·49.9
Mason Plumlee defensive rebound
SA 139·MIN 109
Q4·52.6
Bones Hyland misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
SA 139·MIN 109
Q4·1:02
Timberwolves defensive team rebound
SA 139·MIN 109
Q4·1:03
Joan Beringer blocks Mason Plumlee 's 2-foot layup
·
SA 139·MIN 109
Q4·1:10
Jordan McLaughlin defensive rebound
SA 139·MIN 109
Q4·1:14
Julian Phillips misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
SA 139·MIN 109
Q4·1:23
Mason Plumlee makes reverse dunk (Lindy Waters III assists)
·
SA 139·MIN 109
Q4·1:23
Lindy Waters III offensive rebound
SA 137·MIN 109
Q4·1:25
Lindy Waters III misses driving floating jump shot
SA 137·MIN 109
Q4·1:39
Julian Phillips makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)
·
SA 137·MIN 109
Q4·1:44
Mason Plumlee personal foul
SA 137·MIN 106
Q4·1:53
Jordan McLaughlin makes driving layup
SA 137·MIN 106
Q4·2:16
Kyle Anderson makes 6-foot two point shot (Julian Phillips assists)
·
SA 135·MIN 106
Q4·2:28
Jaylen Clark defensive rebound
SA 135·MIN 104
Q4·2:31
Kelly Olynyk misses 14-foot jumper
SA 135·MIN 104
Q4·2:45
Joan Beringer makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Kyle Anderson assists)
·
SA 135·MIN 104
Q4·2:52
Joan Beringer defensive rebound
SA 135·MIN 102
Q4·2:54
Bismack Biyombo misses reverse layup
SA 135·MIN 102
Q4·3:06
Mason Plumlee defensive rebound
SA 135·MIN 102
Q4·3:10
Kyle Anderson misses 15-foot pullup jump shot
SA 135·MIN 102
Q4·3:14
Timberwolves offensive team rebound
SA 135·MIN 102
Q4·3:15
Bismack Biyombo blocks Bones Hyland 's 3-foot driving layup
·
SA 135·MIN 102
Q4·3:28
Bismack Biyombo traveling turnover
SA 135·MIN 102
Q4·3:50
Bones Hyland makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)
·
SA 135·MIN 102
Q4·3:57
Kelly Olynyk lost ball turnover (Joan Beringer steals)
·
SA 135·MIN 99
Q4·4:05
Kelly Olynyk defensive rebound
SA 135·MIN 99

Betting line

SA -5.5·O/U 219.5·SA -225/MIN +185

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs went into Minnesota Timberwolves and beat them, 139–109. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

SA -5.5 cashed (won by 30). Total cleared the 219.5 OVER by 28.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Rudy GobertMIN · C
CONT1299+
Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Anthony EdwardsMIN · G
USG%31.397
Joan BeringerMIN · F
TS%68.397

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

46.8%

ensemble · SA favored

Elo Static
43.7%
P(MIN win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
48.2%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
48.7%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight

Disagreement

2.27 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.38

CLV pp

Open price

+160

Close price

+170

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

35.5%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SA at MIN?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+10.1pp

best edge · MIN · DraftKings

no live price

MIN

★ best

+185DraftKings

edge +10.1pp · implied 33.6%

Book	SA	MIN	Best edge
DraftKings	-225	+185★	+10.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIN vs SA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

150

projections · 120 high confidence

Points

Anthony EdwardsMIN
23.7± 9.4high
LaMelo BallMIN
22.2± 8.0high
Tobias HarrisSA
16.3± 7.8high

Rebounds

Rudy GobertMIN
10.1± 3.9high
Tobias HarrisSA
6.4± 1.8high
Julian ChampagnieSA
5.6± 2.5high

Assists

LaMelo BallMIN
7.3± 2.5high
De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high

Blocks

Rudy GobertMIN
1.4± 1.2high
Joan BeringerMIN
1.1± 2.1high
Jaden McDanielsMIN
0.9± 0.4high

Steals

De'Aaron FoxSA
1.4± 1.0high
Tobias HarrisSA
1.3± 1.0high
Donte DiVincenzoMIN
1.2± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

MIN

55.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.1%

47.7%

FG%

47.0

47.6%

118.2

PPG

◀

114.9

116.8

27.3

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.7

12.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

Team pages

San Antonio SpursMinnesota Timberwolves

Elsewhere in the NBA

Pistons115Cavaliers94Final

Data via ESPN · hoopR