May 17, 26sim 96
5125
8(H)94
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+30SA
SA
62-20
139109
MIN
49-33
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 50 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NBA
an Antonio Spurs went into Minnesota Timberwolves and beat them, 139–109. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
SA -5.5 cashed (won by 30). Total cleared the 219.5 OVER by 28.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
SA · top performer
Stephon Castle
G · #5
30.7Game score
32
Pts
11
Reb
6
Ast
MIN · top performer
Naz Reid
C · #11
14.9Game score
18
Pts
7
Reb
1
Ast
NBA · San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
SA62-20
139109
MIN49-33
SA62-20MIN49-33
SA
62-20
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 26 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +35 | |
| 27 | 19 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | +25 | |
| 24 | 21 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +26 | |
DRIVES14.885 DEFL379 TOUCHES65.164 | ||||||||
| 27 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +14 | |
| 30 | 32 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +28 | |
TOUCHES71.573 DRIVES12.371 CONT4.848 | ||||||||
| 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -8 | |
| 13 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +16 | |
| 14 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +8 | |
| 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| 26 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +16 | |
| Team | 139 | 60 | 34 | 2 | 13 | 15 | ||
MIN
49-33
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 24 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -34 | |
| 23 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -21 | |
CONT5.770 DRIVES9.864 TOUCHES58.445 | ||||||||
| 22 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -10 | |
| 23 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -28 | |
| 36 | 24 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -31 | |
| 8 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | |
| 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | |
| 32 | 18 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -15 | |
| 19 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| 8 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| 22 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -21 | |
| 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| Team | 109 | 29 | 25 | 9 | 2 | 5 | ||
| DNP: J. Ingles | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
56
FG %
38
34
Ast
25
Playoff series
SA wins series 4-2
May 5MIN104@SA102
MIN104@SA102May 7MIN95@SA133
MIN95@SA133May 9SA115@MIN108
SA115@MIN108May 10SA109@MIN114
SA109@MIN114May 13MIN97@SA126
MIN97@SA126May 16SA139@MIN109today
SA139@MIN109todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
SA -5.5
Half-pt above key 5
1.0pt· 6h
Total
219.5
Standard · -6.5 vs avg
Moneyline
SA-22569%MIN+18535%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
5.5
+1.0 since open
Total
219.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Game flowSA ↔ MIN
Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 11:15
SAS. Castle
GGame leader · 30 min30+ point game
32 PTS · 11 REB · 6 AST
MINN. Reid
CGame leader · 32 min
18 PTS · 7 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
SA beat MIN 139-109. S. Castle paced them with 32 PTS, 11 REB, 6 AST. SA outscored the other side 36-23 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIN vs SA
Starters vs bench
production by unitSAstarters 73% of ptsStarters(5)
101 PTS · 31 REB · 23 AST
GS 94
Bench(10)
38 PTS · 29 REB · 11 AST
GS 36
MINstarters 46% of ptsStarters(5)
50 PTS · 14 REB · 15 AST
GS 25
Bench(8)
59 PTS · 15 REB · 10 AST
GS 51
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SA | 36 | 38 | 36 | 29 | 139 |
| MIN | 27 | 34 | 23 | 25 | 109 |
Period scoring
SA won 4 · MIN won 0
36
27
Q1
Castle 14
Reid 10
38
34
Q2
Wembanyama 9
Edwards 12
36
23
Q3
Castle 11
McDaniels 11
29
25
Q4
Champagnie 9
Dosunmu 6
SA
MIN
Shooting comparison
SA
MIN
56%
49-88
FG
38%
40-106
47%
18-38
3PT
35%
12-34
85%
23-27
FT
81%
17-21
Play-by-play · 514 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
SA 139·MIN 109
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SA 139·MIN 109
- Q4·12.7
shot clock turnover
SA 139·MIN 109
- Q4·26.7
Bones Hyland personal foul
SA 139·MIN 109
- Q4·49.9
Mason Plumlee defensive rebound
SA 139·MIN 109
- Q4·52.6
Bones Hyland misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
SA 139·MIN 109
- Q4·1:02
Timberwolves defensive team rebound
SA 139·MIN 109
- Q4·1:03
Joan Beringer blocks Mason Plumlee 's 2-foot layup
·
SA 139·MIN 109
- Q4·1:10
Jordan McLaughlin defensive rebound
SA 139·MIN 109
- Q4·1:14
Julian Phillips misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
SA 139·MIN 109
- Q4·1:23
Mason Plumlee makes reverse dunk (Lindy Waters III assists)
·
SA 139·MIN 109
- Q4·1:23
Lindy Waters III offensive rebound
SA 137·MIN 109
- Q4·1:25
Lindy Waters III misses driving floating jump shot
SA 137·MIN 109
- Q4·1:39
Julian Phillips makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)
·
SA 137·MIN 109
- Q4·1:44
Mason Plumlee personal foul
SA 137·MIN 106
- Q4·1:53
Jordan McLaughlin makes driving layup
SA 137·MIN 106
- Q4·2:16
Kyle Anderson makes 6-foot two point shot (Julian Phillips assists)
·
SA 135·MIN 106
- Q4·2:28
Jaylen Clark defensive rebound
SA 135·MIN 104
- Q4·2:31
Kelly Olynyk misses 14-foot jumper
SA 135·MIN 104
- Q4·2:45
Joan Beringer makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Kyle Anderson assists)
·
SA 135·MIN 104
- Q4·2:52
Joan Beringer defensive rebound
SA 135·MIN 102
- Q4·2:54
Bismack Biyombo misses reverse layup
SA 135·MIN 102
- Q4·3:06
Mason Plumlee defensive rebound
SA 135·MIN 102
- Q4·3:10
Kyle Anderson misses 15-foot pullup jump shot
SA 135·MIN 102
- Q4·3:14
Timberwolves offensive team rebound
SA 135·MIN 102
- Q4·3:15
Bismack Biyombo blocks Bones Hyland 's 3-foot driving layup
·
SA 135·MIN 102
- Q4·3:28
Bismack Biyombo traveling turnover
SA 135·MIN 102
- Q4·3:50
Bones Hyland makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)
·
SA 135·MIN 102
- Q4·3:57
Kelly Olynyk lost ball turnover (Joan Beringer steals)
·
SA 135·MIN 99
- Q4·4:05
Kelly Olynyk defensive rebound
SA 135·MIN 99
Team stats
SA
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
49-88
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
40-106
56
FG %
38
18-38
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
12-34
23-27
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
17-21
34
Assists
25
15
Turnovers
5
Betting line
SA -5.5·O/U 219.5·SA -225/MIN +185
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
3 of 16 players in cohort
Rudy GobertMIN · CCONT1299+
De'Aaron FoxSA · GDRIVES14.885- Stephon CastleSA · GTOUCHES71.573
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
29.1%
ensemble · SA favored
Elo Static
43.7%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
46.5%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
48.2%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Disagreement
1.84 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
88% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
-1.38
CLV pp
Open price
+160
Close price
+170
Open no-vig
36.9%
Close no-vig
35.5%
Market faded the model · Graded: miss
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+8.7pp
best edge · SA · DraftKings
SA
★ best-225DraftKings
edge +8.7pp · implied 66.4%
MIN
no live price
| Book | SA | MIN | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -225★ | +185 | +8.7 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player projections
MIN vs SA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
180
projections · 150 high confidence
Points
- Victor WembanyamaSA25.4± 6.7high
- Anthony EdwardsMIN23.7± 9.4high
- Stephon CastleSA18.4± 5.9high
Rebounds
- Victor WembanyamaSA11.1± 6.4high
- Rudy GobertMIN10.1± 3.9high
- Julius RandleMIN7.2± 2.1high
Assists
- Stephon CastleSA7.0± 2.1high
- De'Aaron FoxSA5.9± 1.8high
- Ayo DosunmuMIN3.9± 3.1high
Blocks
- Victor WembanyamaSA2.9± 0.8high
- Rudy GobertMIN1.4± 1.2high
- Joan BeringerMIN1.1± 2.1high
Steals
- De'Aaron FoxSA1.3± 1.3high
- Donte DiVincenzoMIN1.2± 1.3high
- Devin VassellSA1.1± 1.4high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands