May 12, 26sim 90
1697
24(H)126
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+21DET
DET
60-22
11594
CLE
52-30
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 48 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NBA
etroit Pistons went into Cleveland Cavaliers and beat them, 115–94. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
DET +3.5 cashed (CLE lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 209.5 by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
DET · top performer
Jalen Duren
C · #0
16.8Game score
15
Pts
11
Reb
0
Ast
CLE · top performer
Jarrett Allen
C · #31
16.6Game score
13
Pts
8
Reb
1
Ast
NBA · Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
DET60-22
11594
CLE52-30
DET60-22CLE52-30
DET
60-22
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 25 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +6 | |
| 27 | 15 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +9 | |
CONT994 TOUCHES4524 DEFL1.512 | ||||||||
| 42 | 21 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 7 | +13 | |
DRIVES1999+ TOUCHES9799+ CONT6.779 | ||||||||
| 24 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +12 | |
DEFL3.592 CONT4.745 TOUCHES44.115 | ||||||||
| 31 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +12 | |
| 20 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| 16 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +8 | |
| 29 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +12 | |
| 18 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +27 | |
| Team | 115 | 43 | 25 | 9 | 6 | 17 | ||
| DNP: J. Green, K. Huerter | ||||||||
CLE
52-30
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 22 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -16 | |
| 30 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -5 | |
| 36 | 18 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -24 | |
CONT9.497 DEFL2.670 TOUCHES63.659 | ||||||||
| 37 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -5 | |
DRIVES12.676 TOUCHES70.370 DEFL2.670 | ||||||||
| 37 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -25 | |
DRIVES12.371 TOUCHES63.659 DEFL1.512 | ||||||||
| 15 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | |
| 30 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -16 | |
| 20 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -10 | |
| Team | 94 | 40 | 15 | 9 | 3 | 20 | ||
| DNP: L. Nance Jr., T. Proctor | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
52
FG %
39
25
Ast
15
Playoff series
Series tied 3-3
May 5CLE101@DET111
CLE101@DET111May 7CLE97@DET107
CLE97@DET107May 9DET109@CLE116
DET109@CLE116May 12DET103@CLE112
DET103@CLE112May 14CLE117@DET113
CLE117@DET113May 15DET115@CLE94today
DET115@CLE94todayMay 18CLE125@DET94
CLE125@DET94Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
CLE -3.5
Between — and 5
Total
209.5
Defensive · -16.5 vs avg
Moneyline
DET+14541%CLE-17564%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
3.5
0.0 since open
Total
209.5
-1.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Game flowDET ↔ CLE
Biggest swing: 21pp · 1st Quarter · 2:27
DETJ. Duren
CGame leader · 27 min
15 PTS · 11 REB · 0 AST
CLEJ. Allen
CGame leader · 30 min
13 PTS · 8 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
DET beat CLE 115-94. J. Duren led with 15 PTS, 11 REB, 0 AST. DET outscored the other side 30-19 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CLE vs DET
Starters vs bench
production by unitDETstarters 58% of ptsStarters(5)
67 PTS · 30 REB · 18 AST
GS 57
Bench(8)
48 PTS · 13 REB · 7 AST
GS 39
CLEstarters 80% of ptsStarters(5)
75 PTS · 28 REB · 10 AST
GS 55
Bench(8)
19 PTS · 12 REB · 5 AST
GS 6
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactDET1st Quarter · 4:25 · 14-16
+11pp→ 50% WP
Caris LeVert · vs. Max Strus (Isaiah Stewart gains possession)
CLE1st Quarter · 2:27 · 17-23
+21pp→ 62% WP
Max Strus · out of bounds lost ball turnover
DET3rd Quarter · 11:36 · 57-51
+9pp→ 71% WP
Cade Cunningham · makes 25-foot three pointer (Daniss Jenkins assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 27 | 27 | 30 | 31 | 115 |
| CLE | 25 | 26 | 19 | 24 | 94 |
Period scoring
DET won 4 · CLE won 0
27
25
Q1
LeVert 6
Harden 7
27
26
Q2
Cunningham 11
Mitchell 6
30
19
Q3
Reed 8
Harden 8
31
24
Q4
Jenkins 8
Harden 8
DET
CLE
Shooting comparison
DET
CLE
52%
43-82
FG
39%
30-77
44%
16-36
3PT
34%
12-35
68%
13-19
FT
73%
22-30
Play-by-play · 483 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
DET 115·CLE 94
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DET 115·CLE 94
- Q4·0.3
shot clock turnover
DET 115·CLE 94
- Q4·24.3
Nae'Qwan Tomlin makes free throw 2 of 2
DET 115·CLE 94
- Q4·24.3
Tolu Smith enters the game for Caris LeVert
·
DET 115·CLE 93
- Q4·24.3
Cavaliers offensive team rebound
DET 115·CLE 93
- Q4·24.3
Nae'Qwan Tomlin misses free throw 1 of 2
DET 115·CLE 93
- Q4·24.3
Ronald Holland II shooting foul
DET 115·CLE 93
- Q4·24.3
Nae'Qwan Tomlin offensive rebound
DET 115·CLE 93
- Q4·25.1
Thomas Bryant misses 12-foot floating jump shot
DET 115·CLE 93
- Q4·41.9
Paul Reed out of bounds lost ball turnover
DET 115·CLE 93
- Q4·1:03
Chaz Lanier enters the game for Daniss Jenkins
·
DET 115·CLE 93
- Q4·1:03
Jaylon Tyson loose ball foul
DET 115·CLE 93
- Q4·1:03
Pistons defensive team rebound
DET 115·CLE 93
- Q4·1:03
Thomas Bryant misses 25-foot three point jumper
DET 115·CLE 93
- Q4·1:19
Paul Reed makes 24-foot three point jumper
DET 115·CLE 93
- Q4·1:42
Keon Ellis out of bounds lost ball turnover
DET 112·CLE 93
- Q4·1:42
Marcus Sasser enters the game for Tobias Harris
·
DET 112·CLE 93
- Q4·1:42
Ronald Holland II enters the game for Cade Cunningham
·
DET 112·CLE 93
- Q4·1:45
Cade Cunningham bad pass turnover (Keon Ellis steals)
·
DET 112·CLE 93
- Q4·2:00
Jaylon Tyson makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot (Keon Ellis assists)
·
DET 112·CLE 93
- Q4·2:21
Paul Reed enters the game for Jalen Duren
·
DET 112·CLE 91
- Q4·2:21
Thomas Bryant enters the game for Donovan Mitchell
·
DET 112·CLE 91
- Q4·2:21
Keon Ellis enters the game for Jarrett Allen
·
DET 112·CLE 91
- Q4·2:21
Nae'Qwan Tomlin enters the game for Evan Mobley
·
DET 112·CLE 91
- Q4·2:21
Jaylon Tyson enters the game for Max Strus
·
DET 112·CLE 91
- Q4·2:21
Craig Porter Jr. enters the game for James Harden
·
DET 112·CLE 91
- Q4·2:21
Cavaliers Full timeout
DET 112·CLE 91
- Q4·2:22
Daniss Jenkins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)
·
DET 112·CLE 91
- Q4·2:41
Jalen Duren defensive rebound
DET 109·CLE 91
Team stats
DET
Away
Stat
CLE
Home
43-82
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
30-77
52
FG %
39
16-36
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
12-35
13-19
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
22-30
25
Assists
15
17
Turnovers
20
Betting line
CLE -3.5·O/U 209.5·DET +145/CLE -175
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Cade CunninghamDET · GDRIVES1999+
Evan MobleyCLE · CCONT9.497- Jalen DurenDET · CCONT994
Ausar ThompsonDET · GDEFL3.592
James HardenCLE · GDRIVES12.676
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
77.5%
ensemble · CLE favored
Elo Static
77.5%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
74.5%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
80.4%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
2.41 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
84% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
+0.55
CLV pp
Open price
-170
Close price
-175
Open no-vig
60.4%
Close no-vig
60.9%
Market came to the model · Graded: miss
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+34.7pp
best edge · CLE · DraftKings
DET
no live price
CLE
★ best+120DraftKings
edge +34.7pp · implied 42.8%
| Book | DET | CLE | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -154 | +120★ | +34.7 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player projections
CLE vs DET.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
175
projections · 150 high confidence
Points
- Donovan MitchellCLE27.5± 7.3high
- Cade CunninghamDET26.1± 9.6high
- James HardenCLE19.6± 6.6high
Rebounds
- Jalen DurenDET9.1± 3.9high
- Evan MobleyCLE8.0± 3.5high
- Jarrett AllenCLE7.3± 2.3high
Assists
- Cade CunninghamDET8.2± 2.8high
- James HardenCLE5.9± 2.8high
- Donovan MitchellCLE3.9± 2.0high
Blocks
- Evan MobleyCLE2.1± 1.3high
- Ausar ThompsonDET1.5± 1.3high
- Jarrett AllenCLE1.3± 0.7high
Steals
- Ausar ThompsonDET2.0± 1.8high
- Donovan MitchellCLE1.5± 1.8high
- James HardenCLE1.4± 1.2high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands