Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at CLE?

The model favors CLE, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+21DET

DET

60-22

11594

CLE

52-30

NBAFri, May 15FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasCLE -3.5

DET · top performer

Jalen Duren

C · #0

16.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CLE · top performer

Jarrett Allen

C · #31

16.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDET ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 21pp · 1st Quarter · 2:27

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. HarrisF · #12	25	6	2-7	0-2	2-2	+6	5	3
J. DurenC · #0	27	15	7-10	—	1-4	+9	11	0
C. CunninghamG · #2	42	21	7-19	5-10	2-2	+13	2	8
A. ThompsonG · #9	24	10	4-6	0-1	2-3	+12	9	4
D. JenkinsG · #24	31	15	5-11	3-7	2-2	+12	3	3
Bench
D. RobinsonF · #55	20	14	4-7	4-7	2-3	+3	2	2
P. ReedF · #7	16	17	7-9	1-1	2-3	+8	6	1
T. SmithF · #35	0	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
I. StewartF · #28	4	0	0-1	0-1	—	+2	1	0
R. Holland IIF · #5	2	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
C. LeVertG · #8	29	8	3-7	2-5	—	+12	3	3
M. SasserG · #25	18	9	4-5	1-2	—	+27	1	1
C. LanierG · #20	1	0	—	—	—	-1	0	0
Team		115	43-82	16-36	13-19		43	25
DNP: J. Green, K. Huerter

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. WadeF · #32	22	3	1-2	1-2	—	-16	3	0
J. AllenC · #31	30	13	5-6	—	3-4	-5	8	1
E. MobleyC · #4	36	18	6-14	2-5	4-8	-24	6	2
J. HardenG · #1	37	23	6-13	3-8	8-10	-5	7	4
D. MitchellG · #45	37	18	6-20	2-6	4-4	-25	4	3
Bench
N. TomlinF · #35	2	1	—	—	1-2	0	1	0
T. BryantC · #3	2	0	0-2	0-1	—	0	0	0
D. SchroderG · #8	15	0	0-4	0-1	—	-4	2	3
M. StrusG · #2	30	6	2-9	2-7	—	-16	8	0
S. MerrillG · #5	20	10	3-6	2-5	2-2	-10	1	1
J. TysonG · #20	2	2	1-1	—	—	0	0	0
C. Porter Jr.G · #9	2	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
K. EllisG · #14	2	0	—	—	—	0	0	1
Team		94	30-77	12-35	22-30		40	15
DNP: L. Nance Jr., T. Proctor

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

43-82

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

30-77

FG %

16-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-35

13-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-30

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

Series tied 3-3

May 5

CLE101@

DET111

May 7

CLE97@

DET107

May 9

DET109@

CLE116

May 12

DET103@

CLE112

May 14

CLE117@

DET113

May 15

DET115@

CLE94today

May 18

CLE125@

DET94

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

209.5

Defensive · -16.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DET+14541%

CLE-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -3.5↗SpreadBet CLE -3.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

209.5

-1.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat CLE 115-94. J. Duren led with 15 PTS, 11 REB, 0 AST. DET outscored the other side 30-19 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CLE vs DET

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DETstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

67 PTS · 30 REB · 18 AST

GS 57

Bench(8)

48 PTS · 13 REB · 7 AST

GS 39

CLEstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

75 PTS · 28 REB · 10 AST

GS 55

Bench(8)

19 PTS · 12 REB · 5 AST

GS 6

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DET1st Quarter · 4:25 · 14-16

+11pp→ 50% WP

Caris LeVert · vs. Max Strus (Isaiah Stewart gains possession)

CLE1st Quarter · 2:27 · 17-23

+21pp→ 62% WP

Max Strus · out of bounds lost ball turnover

DET3rd Quarter · 11:36 · 57-51

+9pp→ 71% WP

Cade Cunningham · makes 25-foot three pointer (Daniss Jenkins assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DET	27	27	30	31	115
CLE	25	26	19	24	94

Period scoring

DET won 4 · CLE won 0

LeVert 6

Harden 7

Cunningham 11

Mitchell 6

Reed 8

Harden 8

Jenkins 8

Harden 8

DET

CLE

Shooting comparison

DET

CLE

52%

43-82

39%

30-77

44%

16-36

3PT

34%

12-35

68%

13-19

73%

22-30

Play-by-play · 483 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DET 115·CLE 94
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DET 115·CLE 94
Q4·0.3
shot clock turnover
DET 115·CLE 94
Q4·24.3
Nae'Qwan Tomlin makes free throw 2 of 2
DET 115·CLE 94
Q4·24.3
Tolu Smith enters the game for Caris LeVert
·
DET 115·CLE 93
Q4·24.3
Cavaliers offensive team rebound
DET 115·CLE 93
Q4·24.3
Nae'Qwan Tomlin misses free throw 1 of 2
DET 115·CLE 93
Q4·24.3
Ronald Holland II shooting foul
DET 115·CLE 93
Q4·24.3
Nae'Qwan Tomlin offensive rebound
DET 115·CLE 93
Q4·25.1
Thomas Bryant misses 12-foot floating jump shot
DET 115·CLE 93
Q4·41.9
Paul Reed out of bounds lost ball turnover
DET 115·CLE 93
Q4·1:03
Chaz Lanier enters the game for Daniss Jenkins
·
DET 115·CLE 93
Q4·1:03
Jaylon Tyson loose ball foul
DET 115·CLE 93
Q4·1:03
Pistons defensive team rebound
DET 115·CLE 93
Q4·1:03
Thomas Bryant misses 25-foot three point jumper
DET 115·CLE 93
Q4·1:19
Paul Reed makes 24-foot three point jumper
DET 115·CLE 93
Q4·1:42
Keon Ellis out of bounds lost ball turnover
DET 112·CLE 93
Q4·1:42
Marcus Sasser enters the game for Tobias Harris
·
DET 112·CLE 93
Q4·1:42
Ronald Holland II enters the game for Cade Cunningham
·
DET 112·CLE 93
Q4·1:45
Cade Cunningham bad pass turnover (Keon Ellis steals)
·
DET 112·CLE 93
Q4·2:00
Jaylon Tyson makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot (Keon Ellis assists)
·
DET 112·CLE 93
Q4·2:21
Paul Reed enters the game for Jalen Duren
·
DET 112·CLE 91
Q4·2:21
Thomas Bryant enters the game for Donovan Mitchell
·
DET 112·CLE 91
Q4·2:21
Keon Ellis enters the game for Jarrett Allen
·
DET 112·CLE 91
Q4·2:21
Nae'Qwan Tomlin enters the game for Evan Mobley
·
DET 112·CLE 91
Q4·2:21
Jaylon Tyson enters the game for Max Strus
·
DET 112·CLE 91
Q4·2:21
Craig Porter Jr. enters the game for James Harden
·
DET 112·CLE 91
Q4·2:21
Cavaliers Full timeout
DET 112·CLE 91
Q4·2:22
Daniss Jenkins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)
·
DET 112·CLE 91
Q4·2:41
Jalen Duren defensive rebound
DET 109·CLE 91

Betting line

CLE -3.5·O/U 209.5·DET +145/CLE -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

etroit Pistons went into Cleveland Cavaliers and beat them, 115–94. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

DET +3.5 cashed (CLE lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 209.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Cade CunninghamDET · G
TOUCHES9799+
Jarrett AllenCLE · C
CONT9.899
Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998
Evan MobleyCLE · C
CONT9.498
Jalen DurenDET · C
TS%68.898

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

76.5%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
77.5%
P(CLE win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
73.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
79.0%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight

Disagreement

2.53 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

83% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.55

CLV pp

Open price

-170

Close price

-175

Open no-vig

60.4%

Close no-vig

60.9%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at CLE?: The model favors CLE, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+16.6pp

best edge · CLE · DraftKings

DET

no live price

CLE

★ best

-175DraftKings

edge +16.6pp · implied 60.9%

Book	DET	CLE	Best edge
DraftKings	+145	-175★	+16.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CLE vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
Cade CunninghamDET
26.1± 9.6high
James HardenCLE
19.6± 6.6high

Rebounds

Jalen DurenDET
9.1± 3.9high
Evan MobleyCLE
8.0± 3.5high
Jarrett AllenCLE
7.3± 2.3high

Assists

Cade CunninghamDET
8.2± 2.8high
James HardenCLE
5.9± 2.8high
Donovan MitchellCLE
3.9± 2.0high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Jarrett AllenCLE
1.3± 0.7high
Jalen DurenDET
1.0± 1.1high

Steals

Donovan MitchellCLE
1.5± 1.8high
Elijah HarklessDET
1.5± 1.4high
James HardenCLE
1.4± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DET

league avg

CLE

54.2%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.6%

48.0%

FG%

47.0

47.7%

115.9

PPG

114.9

▶

117.4

27.0

Assists / G

25.0

27.1

14.3

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.8

Team pages

Detroit PistonsCleveland Cavaliers

Elsewhere in the NBA

Spurs139Timberwolves109Final

Data via ESPN · hoopR