DEN
42-28
MEM
24-44
DEN · top performer
Christian Braun
G · #0
26
Pts
7
Reb
5
Ast
MEM · top performer
Ty Jerome
G · #2
21
Pts
9
Reb
9
Ast
Biggest swing: 13pp · 4th Quarter · 5:33
NBA · Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 33 | 20 | 7-13 | 5-6 | 1-2 | -6 | 6 | 3 | |
| 27 | 6 | 3-5 | 0-2 | — | -22 | 5 | 0 | |
| 39 | 29 | 11-19 | 2-4 | 5-8 | -4 | 14 | 9 | |
| 41 | 19 | 6-13 | 2-6 | 5-5 | +3 | 8 | 12 | |
| 41 | 26 | 11-19 | 2-5 | 2-2 | -5 | 7 | 5 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 6 | 4 | 2-3 | — | — | -1 | 3 | 0 | |
| 28 | 11 | 3-12 | 2-11 | 3-3 | +5 | 2 | 2 | |
| 20 | 1 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 1-2 | -7 | 1 | 2 | |
| 6 | 2 | 1-2 | — | — | +2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 118 | 44-90 | 13-36 | 17-22 | 46 | 34 | ||
| DNP: Z. Nnaji, D. Roddy, T. Jones, J. Pickett | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 23 | 19 | 6-9 | 3-5 | 4-6 | +12 | 1 | 0 | |
| 25 | 15 | 4-12 | 0-4 | 7-7 | +4 | 7 | 1 | |
| 26 | 16 | 6-15 | 1-4 | 3-6 | +9 | 6 | 0 | |
| 25 | 11 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 3-4 | +12 | 5 | 0 | |
| 25 | 21 | 8-15 | 5-8 | — | +5 | 9 | 9 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 9 | 1 | — | — | 1-2 | -1 | 4 | 1 | |
| 13 | 5 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 3-3 | -2 | 3 | 0 | |
| 24 | 13 | 6-18 | 1-10 | — | -4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 10 | 4 | 2-2 | — | — | +2 | 4 | 4 | |
| 20 | 8 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 2-2 | -1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 20 | 8 | 3-6 | 2-3 | — | -1 | 4 | 2 | |
| 20 | 4 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | |
| Team | 125 | 42-98 | 16-49 | 25-32 | 48 | 22 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
49
FG %
43
34
Ast
22
Team stats
DEN
Away
Stat
MEM
Home
44-90
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
42-98
49
FG %
43
13-36
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
16-49
17-22
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
25-32
34
Assists
22
19
Turnovers
10
Season series
DEN leads series 2-1
DEN125@MEM115DEN0@MEM0MEM116@DEN122DEN118@MEM125todayMEM119@DEN136Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DEN -12.5
Between 10 and —
Total
246.5
High-scoring · +20.5 vs avg
Moneyline
DEN-75088%MEM+52516%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
12.5
0.0 since open
Total
246.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
MEM beat DEN 125-118. T. Jerome led with 21 PTS, 9 REB, 9 AST. MEM outscored the other side 39-31 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MEM vs DEN
Starters vs bench
production by unitDENstarters 85% of ptsStarters(5)
100 PTS · 40 REB · 29 AST
GS 87
Bench(4)
18 PTS · 6 REB · 5 AST
GS 5
MEMstarters 66% of ptsStarters(5)
82 PTS · 28 REB · 10 AST
GS 66
Bench(7)
43 PTS · 20 REB · 12 AST
GS 41
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactTaylor Hendricks · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Javon Small assists)
Ty Jerome · enters the game for Walter Clayton Jr.
GG Jackson · makes 25-foot three pointer
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 30 | 30 | 31 | 27 | 118 |
| MEM | 31 | 29 | 39 | 26 | 125 |
Period scoring
DEN won 2 · MEM won 2
Q1
Braun 14
Jerome 8
Q2
Johnson 6
Jerome 5
Q3
Johnson 13
Prosper 10
Q4
Jokic 13
Jackson 9
Shooting comparison
49%
44-90
FG
43%
42-98
36%
13-36
3PT
33%
16-49
77%
17-22
FT
78%
25-32
Play-by-play · 521 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
DEN 118·MEM 125
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DEN 118·MEM 125
- Q4·1.7
Nuggets offensive team rebound
DEN 118·MEM 125
- Q4·1.7
Jamal Murray misses heave jump shot
DEN 118·MEM 125
- Q4·4.5
Cedric Coward makes free throw 2 of 2
DEN 118·MEM 125
- Q4·4.5
Cedric Coward makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 118·MEM 124
- Q4·4.5
Jamal Murray personal take foul
DEN 118·MEM 123
+0.8pp
- Q4·6.7
Jamal Murray makes 32-foot three pointer
DEN 118·MEM 123
−0.5pp
- Q4·14.8
Walter Clayton Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
DEN 115·MEM 123
- Q4·14.8
Walter Clayton Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 115·MEM 122
- Q4·14.8
Nikola Jokic personal foul
DEN 115·MEM 121
+0.7pp
- Q4·15.1
Walter Clayton Jr. defensive rebound
DEN 115·MEM 121
+0.9pp
- Q4·18.8
Nikola Jokic misses 26-foot three point jumper
DEN 115·MEM 121
+2pp
- Q4·24.0
Jamal Murray enters the game for Spencer Jones
· ·
DEN 115·MEM 121
- Q4·24.0
Nikola Jokic enters the game for Bruce Brown
·
DEN 115·MEM 121
- Q4·24.0
Nuggets Full timeout
DEN 115·MEM 121
- Q4·24.0
Olivier-Maxence Prosper out of bounds lost ball turnover
DEN 115·MEM 121
−2pp
- Q4·28.0
Cameron Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
DEN 115·MEM 121
- Q4·28.0
Spencer Jones enters the game for Jamal Murray
· ·
DEN 114·MEM 121
- Q4·28.0
Bruce Brown enters the game for Nikola Jokic
·
DEN 114·MEM 121
- Q4·28.0
Nuggets offensive team rebound
DEN 114·MEM 121
+2pp
- Q4·28.0
Cameron Johnson misses free throw 1 of 2
DEN 114·MEM 121
−1pp
- Q4·28.0
Walter Clayton Jr. shooting foulBIG MOMENT
DEN 114·MEM 121
−5pp
- Q4·32.5
Cedric Coward lost ball turnover
DEN 114·MEM 121
+4pp
- Q4·32.5
Christian Braun vs. Cedric Coward (Tim Hardaway Jr. gains possession)
· ·
DEN 114·MEM 121
−1pp
- Q4·41.9
Cedric Coward offensive rebound
DEN 114·MEM 121
+1pp
- Q4·41.9
Olivier-Maxence Prosper misses 22-foot three point jumper
DEN 114·MEM 121
−0.5pp
- Q4·1:06
Nikola Jokic makes 1-foot two point shot (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)
·
DEN 114·MEM 121
−0.6pp
- Q4·1:09
Tim Hardaway Jr. offensive rebound
DEN 112·MEM 121
−0.5pp
- Q4·1:12
Jamal Murray misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
DEN 112·MEM 121
+0.7pp
Betting line
DEN -12.5·O/U 246.5·DEN -750/MEM +525
Recap · NBA
emphis Grizzlies held off Denver Nuggets, 125–118.
MEM +12.5 cashed (DEN lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 246.5 by 3.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Nikola JokicDEN · CTOUCHES12399+- Ty JeromeMEM · GUSG%33.999
Jamal MurrayDEN · GTOUCHES82.297
Olivier-Maxence ProsperMEM · FTS%66.293
Jonas ValanciunasDEN · CUSG%26.790
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · DEN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MEM vs DEN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
160
projections · 120 high confidence
Points
- Nikola JokicDEN26.6± 7.0high
- Jamal MurrayDEN24.2± 8.1high
- Ja MorantMEM19.6± 8.8high
Rebounds
- Nikola JokicDEN12.5± 3.1high
- Zach EdeyMEM11.3± 7.8low
- Santi AldamaMEM6.7± 2.1high
Assists
- Nikola JokicDEN9.7± 4.5high
- Ja MorantMEM8.1± 3.9high
- Jamal MurrayDEN6.4± 1.9high
Blocks
- Zach EdeyMEM1.9± 2.3low
- Nikola JokicDEN1.0± 1.0high
- GG JacksonMEM0.9± 0.7high
Steals
- Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM1.9± 2.1low
- Taylor HendricksMEM1.5± 2.0high
- Bruce BrownDEN1.3± 1.5high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
DEN
league avg
MEM
57.2%
Effective FG%
54.4
53.3%
49.2%
FG%
47.0
45.6%
121.1
PPG
114.9
114.7
28.7
Assists / G
25.0
27.8
12.1
Turnovers / G
14.0
14.6