Las Vegas Aces at Chicago Sky
LV
11-4
CHI
4-10
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
as Vegas Aces visit Chicago Sky Sunday at 6/28 - 4:00 PM EDT. LV is rolling — 7-2 in their last 9.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Season series
Series starts 6/28
LV@CHItodayCHI@LVupcomingLV@CHIupcomingScouting report
LV @ CHI
Tale of the tape
11-4
Record
4-10
#2
Conf rank
#6
+3.4
Pt diff
-5.3
W1
Streak
L4
7-3
Last 10
1-9
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Team stats
LV
Away
Stat
CHI
Home
48
FG %
42
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
43.9%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
31%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CHI vs LV.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV26.3± 6.1medium
- Jackie YoungLV16.3± 10.2medium
- Rickea JacksonCHI16.0± 11.0low
Rebounds
- A'ja WilsonLV10.0± 4.7medium
- Kamilla CardosoCHI7.6± 4.5medium
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.4± 2.9medium
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV7.2± 2.5medium
- Jackie YoungLV6.9± 3.1medium
- Skylar DigginsCHI4.3± 3.6low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV2.2± 2.1medium
- Kamilla CardosoCHI1.7± 2.2medium
- Elizabeth WilliamsCHI1.3± 1.3low
Steals
- A'ja WilsonLV1.6± 1.6medium
- Chelsea GrayLV1.3± 1.0medium
- Jewell LoydLV1.2± 1.1medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LV
league avg
CHI
48.4%
FG%
44.4
41.8%
36.4%
3PT %
33.1
29.9%
90.2
PPG
85.3
82.2
23.4
Assists / G
18.0
19.1
13.0
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.7