NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+12SA

35-16

135123

DAL

19-32

NBAThu, Feb 5FinalSeriesSA leads series 2-0VegasSA -7.5

SA · top performer

Victor Wembanyama

F · #1

30.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DAL · top performer

Naji Marshall

F · #13

24.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSA ↔ DAL

Biggest swing: 14pp · 4th Quarter · 3:33

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. BarnesF · #40	34	19	5-7	5-7	4-4	+8	1	3
J. ChampagnieF · #30	27	14	4-12	2-8	4-4	+5	7	1
V. WembanyamaF · #1	34	29	9-14	5-9	6-8	+14	11	6
D. FoxG · #4	32	17	7-16	3-7	—	-8	3	7
D. VassellG · #24	30	12	5-12	0-4	2-2	+15	7	3
Bench
K. JohnsonF · #3	19	12	5-9	—	2-2	-6	6	4
C. BryantF · #11	18	2	1-3	—	—	+1	2	2
J. McLaughlinG · #0	4	3	1-2	1-2	—	-4	1	0
S. CastleG · #5	22	18	8-13	1-3	1-1	+27	7	6
D. HarperG · #2	19	9	3-7	0-1	3-4	+8	5	2
Team		135	48-95	17-41	22-25		50	34
DNP: K. Olynyk, H. Ingram, B. Biyombo, S. Umude

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
C. MartinF · #16	32	8	3-4	1-1	1-2	-20	4	1
D. GaffordF · #21	33	16	5-8	—	6-8	+2	10	2
N. MarshallF · #13	39	32	12-21	4-7	4-4	+5	6	3
C. FlaggF · #32	39	32	14-27	2-5	2-2	-19	6	4
M. ChristieG · #00	38	20	7-15	2-8	4-4	-15	3	4
Bench
D. PowellF · #7	2	0	—	—	—	-8	0	0
M. CisseC · #30	12	0	0-2	—	—	-4	5	0
K. ThompsonG · #31	20	5	2-8	1-6	—	-12	2	1
R. NembhardG · #9	17	5	2-9	1-2	—	+5	3	7
M. KellyG · #14	9	5	2-3	1-2	—	+6	2	1
Team		123	47-97	12-31	17-20		41	23
DNP: B. Williams

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

48-95

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

47-97

FG %

17-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-31

22-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-20

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

SA leads series 2-0

Oct 23

SA125@

DAL92

Feb 6

SA135@

DAL123today

Feb 7

DAL125@

SA138

Apr 11

DAL120@

SA139

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

230.5

Standard · +4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SA-31076%

DAL+25029%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -7.5↗SpreadBet SA -7.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

230.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SA beat DAL 135-123. V. Wembanyama paced them with 29 PTS, 11 REB, 6 AST. SA outscored the other side 36-27 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DAL vs SA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SAstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

91 PTS · 29 REB · 20 AST

GS 77

Bench(5)

44 PTS · 21 REB · 14 AST

GS 44

DALstarters 88% of pts

Starters(5)

108 PTS · 29 REB · 14 AST

GS 92

Bench(5)

15 PTS · 12 REB · 9 AST

GS 10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DAL4th Quarter · 9:12 · 106-103

+9pp→ 40% WP

De'Aaron Fox · shooting foul

SA4th Quarter · 9:00 · 108-105

+10pp→ 78% WP

Daniel Gafford · shooting foul

SA4th Quarter · 3:33 · 123-119

+14pp→ 81% WP

Cooper Flagg · misses 25-foot fade away jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SA	38	36	25	36	135
DAL	35	28	33	27	123

Period scoring

SA won 3 · DAL won 1

Wembanyama 10

Marshall 11

Wembanyama 10

Marshall 9

Barnes 6

Flagg 11

Fox 8

Flagg 11

DAL

Shooting comparison

DAL

51%

48-95

48%

47-97

41%

17-41

3PT

39%

12-31

88%

22-25

85%

17-20

Play-by-play · 496 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SA 135·DAL 123
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SA 135·DAL 123
Q4·22.1
shot clock turnover
SA 135·DAL 123
Q4·44.7
Stephon Castle defensive rebound
SA 135·DAL 123
Q4·48.4
Naji Marshall misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
SA 135·DAL 123
Q4·53.6
Stephon Castle makes tip in dunk
SA 135·DAL 123
Q4·53.6
Stephon Castle offensive rebound
SA 133·DAL 123
Q4·54.7
Victor Wembanyama misses 23-foot running jump shot
SA 133·DAL 123
Q4·58.9
De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
SA 133·DAL 123
Q4·1:00
Cooper Flagg misses 13-foot step back jumpshot
SA 133·DAL 123
Q4·1:09
Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 133·DAL 123
Q4·1:09
Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 1 of 2
SA 132·DAL 123
Q4·1:09
Klay Thompson enters the game for Daniel Gafford
·
SA 131·DAL 123
Q4·1:09
Daniel Gafford shooting foul
SA 131·DAL 123
−0.9pp
Q4·1:17
De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
SA 131·DAL 123
Q4·1:19
Max Christie misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
SA 131·DAL 123
−1pp
Q4·1:24
De'Aaron Fox makes 23-foot three point jumper (Victor Wembanyama assists)
·
SA 131·DAL 123
−5pp
Q4·1:39
Naji Marshall makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 128·DAL 123
−4pp
Q4·1:39
Naji Marshall makes free throw 1 of 2
SA 128·DAL 122
+1pp
Q4·1:39
Victor Wembanyama personal foulBIG MOMENT
SA 128·DAL 121
+5pp
Q4·1:43
Daniel Gafford defensive rebound
SA 128·DAL 121
Q4·1:45
Victor Wembanyama misses free throw 2 of 2
SA 128·DAL 121
+3pp
Q4·1:45
Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 1 of 2
SA 128·DAL 121
Q4·1:45
Daniel Gafford shooting foul
SA 127·DAL 121
−3pp
Q4·1:51
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
SA 127·DAL 121
−0.9pp
Q4·1:52
Max Christie misses two point shot
SA 127·DAL 121
−3pp
Q4·2:06
Harrison Barnes makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 127·DAL 121
+3pp
Q4·2:06
Harrison Barnes makes free throw 1 of 2
SA 126·DAL 121
−0.8pp
Q4·2:06
Caleb Martin personal foulBIG MOMENT
SA 125·DAL 121
−6pp
Q4·2:06
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
SA 125·DAL 121
−2pp

Betting line

SA -7.5·O/U 230.5·SA -310/DAL +250

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs went into Dallas Mavericks and beat them, 135–123.

SA -7.5 cashed (won by 12). Total cleared the 230.5 OVER by 27.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
Dwight PowellDAL · F
TS%69.999
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Daniel GaffordDAL · F
TS%67.796
Cooper FlaggDAL · F
DRIVES12.894

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · SA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

DAL

55.3%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.7%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.6%

118.2

PPG

◀

114.9

114.1

27.3

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.3

12.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR