NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9WSH

WSH

14-36

126117

DET

37-13

NBAThu, Feb 5FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasDET -16.5

WSH · top performer

Will Riley

G · #27

19.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DET · top performer

Cade Cunningham

G · #2

22.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowWSH ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 31pp · 1st Quarter · 1:05

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #9	15	14	5-10	3-4	1-1	+16	7	1
K. GeorgeF · #18	18	8	3-5	1-3	1-2	-1	3	3
A. SarrC · #20	18	12	5-10	2-4	0-1	+2	6	1
B. CarringtonG · #7	22	12	4-10	2-7	2-2	+1	0	4
B. CoulibalyG · #0	36	11	4-12	1-4	2-3	-1	5	4
Bench
A. GillF · #16	30	11	4-6	1-2	2-3	+7	3	2
T. VukcevicF · #00	11	14	5-7	3-4	1-1	+3	3	3
S. CooperG · #13	34	18	8-12	2-5	—	-3	3	5
J. WatkinsG · #5	26	6	2-5	1-3	1-2	+8	3	2
W. RileyG · #27	29	20	9-14	2-5	0-3	+13	6	5
Team		126	49-91	18-41	10-18		39	30
DNP: S. Labissiere, T. Johnson

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. RobinsonF · #55	30	21	6-15	6-15	3-3	-7	1	2
I. StewartF · #28	29	4	1-3	0-1	2-2	-3	2	0
J. DurenC · #0	13	4	2-6	—	—	-15	3	0
C. CunninghamG · #2	38	30	10-21	0-3	10-13	-16	8	8
A. ThompsonG · #9	33	13	5-8	—	3-4	-5	9	3
Bench
P. ReedF · #7	13	7	3-4	—	1-2	0	5	0
W. Moore Jr.F · #14	6	4	1-1	—	2-2	+9	1	0
R. Holland IIF · #5	25	11	4-9	0-2	3-4	+3	10	2
J. GreenG · #31	18	8	3-6	1-4	1-2	-2	3	0
C. LeVertG · #8	16	7	3-7	0-2	1-1	-4	2	3
K. HuerterG · #27	6	0	0-2	0-2	—	-7	1	1
M. SasserG · #25	14	8	3-6	2-4	—	+2	2	3
Team		117	41-88	9-33	26-33		47	22
DNP: B. Klintman, C. Lanier

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

DET

Home

49-91

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-88

FG %

18-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-33

10-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

26-33

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 11

WSH135@

DET137

Feb 6

WSH126@

DET117today

Mar 17

DET130@

WSH117

Mar 19

DET117@

WSH95

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -16.5

Between 10 and —

Total

227.5

Standard · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH+75012%

DET-120092%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -16.5↗SpreadBet DET -16.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

16.5

0.0 since open

Total

227.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat DET 126-117. W. Riley led with 20 PTS, 6 REB, 5 AST. WSH outscored the other side 34-21 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DET vs WSH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

WSHstarters 45% of pts

Starters(5)

57 PTS · 21 REB · 13 AST

GS 44

Bench(5)

69 PTS · 18 REB · 17 AST

GS 58

DETstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

72 PTS · 23 REB · 13 AST

GS 53

Bench(7)

45 PTS · 24 REB · 9 AST

GS 43

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DET1st Quarter · 1:05 · 32-19

+31pp→ 65% WP

Tristan Vukcevic · lost ball turnover (Javonte Green steals)

WSH4th Quarter · 8:19 · 104-97

+13pp→ 61% WP

Will Riley · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bilal Coulibaly assists)

WSH4th Quarter · 3:15 · 117-110

+17pp→ 83% WP

Bilal Coulibaly · makes 30-foot jump bank shot (Anthony Gill assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
WSH	34	22	39	31	126
DET	21	31	32	33	117

Period scoring

WSH won 2 · DET won 2

Champagnie 9

Cunningham 6

Riley 5

Thompson 6

Carrington 8

Cunningham 7

Riley 9

Cunningham 11

WSH

DET

Shooting comparison

WSH

DET

54%

49-91

47%

41-88

44%

18-41

3PT

27%

9-33

56%

10-18

79%

26-33

Play-by-play · 480 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
WSH 126·DET 117
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
WSH 126·DET 117
Q4·9.1
shot clock turnover
WSH 126·DET 117
Q4·31.1
Will Riley defensive rebound
WSH 126·DET 117
Q4·33.4
Cade Cunningham misses running layup
WSH 126·DET 117
−0.6pp
Q4·39.2
Caris LeVert defensive rebound
WSH 126·DET 117
Q4·41.1
Bilal Coulibaly misses free throw 2 of 2
WSH 126·DET 117
+0.9pp
Q4·41.1
Bilal Coulibaly makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 126·DET 117
Q4·41.1
Cade Cunningham personal foul
WSH 125·DET 117
−0.7pp
Q4·44.3
Duncan Robinson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)
·
WSH 125·DET 117
+0.7pp
Q4·52.7
Anthony Gill makes layup (Sharife Cooper assists)
·
WSH 125·DET 114
Q4·56.3
Sharife Cooper offensive rebound
WSH 123·DET 114
−1pp
Q4·59.4
Will Riley misses free throw 2 of 2
WSH 123·DET 114
+1pp
Q4·59.4
Duncan Robinson enters the game for Ausar Thompson
·
WSH 123·DET 114
Q4·59.4
Wizards offensive team rebound
WSH 123·DET 114
Q4·59.4
Will Riley misses free throw 1 of 2
WSH 123·DET 114
Q4·59.4
Caris LeVert shooting foul
WSH 123·DET 114
−0.6pp
Q4·1:04
Jamir Watkins offensive rebound
WSH 123·DET 114
−0.9pp
Q4·1:07
Sharife Cooper misses running layup
WSH 123·DET 114
+0.7pp
Q4·1:11
Bilal Coulibaly defensive rebound
WSH 123·DET 114
Q4·1:13
Marcus Sasser misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
WSH 123·DET 114
−1pp
Q4·1:19
Bilal Coulibaly makes 21-foot step back jumpshot
WSH 123·DET 114
−2pp
Q4·1:32
Cade Cunningham makes 22-foot running pullup jump shot (Marcus Sasser assists)
·
WSH 121·DET 114
+2pp
Q4·1:36
Bilal Coulibaly lost ball turnover (Ausar Thompson steals)
·
WSH 121·DET 112
+1pp
Q4·1:53
Isaiah Stewart enters the game for Duncan Robinson
·
WSH 121·DET 112
Q4·1:53
Caris LeVert enters the game for Paul Reed
·
WSH 121·DET 112
Q4·1:53
Pistons Full timeout
WSH 121·DET 112
+1pp
Q4·1:53
Ausar Thompson personal foul
WSH 121·DET 112
−1pp
Q4·1:53
Will Riley defensive rebound
WSH 121·DET 112
−0.5pp
Q4·1:55
Duncan Robinson misses 22-foot three point jumper
WSH 121·DET 112
−2pp

Betting line

DET -16.5·O/U 227.5·WSH +750/DET -1200

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ashington Wizards went into Detroit Pistons and beat them, 126–117.

WSH +16.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total cleared the 227.5 OVER by 15.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Cade CunninghamDET · G
TOUCHES9799+
Alex SarrWSH · C
CONT9.498
Jalen DurenDET · C
TS%68.898
Anthony GillWSH · F
TS%68.297
Ausar ThompsonDET · G
DEFL3.596

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Cade CunninghamDET
26.1± 9.6high
Anthony DavisWSH
20.5± 9.2high
Will RileyWSH
15.0± 9.3high

Rebounds

Anthony DavisWSH
11.3± 4.3high
Julian ReeseWSH
10.5± 6.4low
Jalen DurenDET
9.1± 3.9high

Assists

Cade CunninghamDET
8.2± 2.8high
Bub CarringtonWSH
5.1± 1.9high
Sharife CooperWSH
3.8± 2.0high

Blocks

Anthony DavisWSH
1.7± 1.5high
Alex SarrWSH
1.6± 1.4high
Jalen DurenDET
1.0± 1.1high

Steals

Cade CunninghamDET
1.4± 1.2high
Julian ReeseWSH
1.4± 1.7low
Leaky BlackWSH
1.4± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

WSH

league avg

DET

53.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

54.2%

46.3%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.0%

112.9

PPG

114.9

▶

115.9

25.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.0

15.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR