NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4MEM

MEM

20-29

129125

SAC

12-40

NBAWed, Feb 4FinalSeriesMEM leads series 3-0VegasSAC -2.5

MEM · top performer

Ty Jerome

G · #2

27.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SAC · top performer

Domantas Sabonis

F · #11

23.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMEM ↔ SAC

Biggest swing: 20pp · 4th Quarter · 18.1

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. AldamaF · #7	24	12	4-10	2-6	2-4	+14	6	0
C. CowardF · #23	27	5	2-6	0-2	1-2	+11	7	6
G. JacksonF · #45	27	16	6-8	2-3	2-3	+9	7	2
J. WellsF · #0	26	18	6-12	6-9	—	+6	3	1
T. JeromeG · #2	21	28	10-14	3-4	5-6	+9	1	7
Bench
O. ProsperF · #18	22	8	1-5	0-2	6-8	-9	5	0
K. Caldwell-PopeG · #3	22	15	6-9	1-3	2-2	+2	2	2
C. SpencerG · #24	27	20	7-13	3-7	3-3	-6	3	5
J. MashackG · #21	23	2	1-2	—	—	-5	4	5
J. SmallG · #10	21	5	2-11	1-5	—	-11	6	2
Team		129	45-90	18-41	21-28		44	30
DNP: B. Clarke, S. Pippen Jr.

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. SabonisF · #11	24	24	10-18	—	4-4	-12	15	3
D. HunterF · #15	26	9	3-11	2-4	1-2	-7	2	1
R. WestbrookG · #18	26	13	5-14	3-10	—	0	0	5
D. DeRozanG · #10	28	20	6-10	1-3	7-9	-4	3	5
Z. LaVineG · #8	22	11	3-9	1-3	4-4	-13	1	0
Bench
D. CardwellC · #32	26	5	1-2	—	3-4	+9	11	1
M. RaynaudC · #42	21	6	3-5	0-2	—	-1	5	0
M. MonkG · #0	18	13	4-10	2-5	3-3	+2	0	4
D. CarterG · #22	24	10	5-12	0-6	—	-3	6	5
N. CliffordG · #5	26	14	5-9	2-3	2-2	+9	3	5
Team		125	45-100	11-36	24-28		46	29
DNP: P. Achiuwa, D. McDermott, D. Eubanks, D. Plowden, I. Stevens

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MEM

Away

Stat

SAC

Home

45-90

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-100

FG %

18-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-36

21-28

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

24-28

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MEM leads series 3-0

Nov 21

SAC96@

MEM137

Dec 1

MEM115@

SAC107

Feb 5

MEM129@

SAC125today

Feb 24

SAC123@

MEM114

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SAC -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

236.5

High-scoring · +10.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MEM+12445%

SAC-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SAC -2.5↗SpreadBet SAC -2.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

236.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MEM beat SAC 129-125. T. Jerome paced them with 28 PTS, 1 REB, 7 AST. Cam Spencer's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SAC vs MEM

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MEMstarters 61% of pts

Starters(5)

79 PTS · 24 REB · 16 AST

GS 67

Bench(5)

50 PTS · 20 REB · 14 AST

GS 40

SACstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

77 PTS · 21 REB · 14 AST

GS 55

Bench(5)

48 PTS · 25 REB · 15 AST

GS 40

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MEM4th Quarter · 8:36 · 102-103

+16pp→ 47% WP

GG Jackson · makes 26-foot three pointer (Ty Jerome assists)

MEM4th Quarter · 2:08 · 122-118

+15pp→ 81% WP

Cam Spencer · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jahmai Mashack assists)

MEM4th Quarter · 18.1 · 129-125

+20pp→ 88% WP

Cam Spencer · makes 28-foot three pointer

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MEM	28	30	31	40	129
SAC	31	26	34	34	125

Period scoring

MEM won 2 · SAC won 2

Jerome 6

Sabonis 8

Caldwell-Pope 8

Prosper 14

Wells 9

Monk 8

Jerome 12

DeRozan 17

MEM

SAC

Shooting comparison

MEM

SAC

50%

45-90

45%

45-100

44%

18-41

3PT

31%

11-36

75%

21-28

86%

24-28

Play-by-play · 520 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MEM 129·SAC 125
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MEM 129·SAC 125
−0.8pp
Q4·2.4
GG Jackson defensive rebound
MEM 129·SAC 125
−1pp
Q4·4.3
Devin Carter misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
MEM 129·SAC 125
−5pp
Q4·7.8
GG Jackson out of bounds lost ball turnover
MEM 129·SAC 125
+4pp
Q4·7.8
GG Jackson defensive rebound
MEM 129·SAC 125
−1pp
Q4·8.3
DeMar DeRozan misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
MEM 129·SAC 125
−8pp
Q4·18.1
Cam Spencer makes 28-foot three pointerBIG MOMENT
MEM 129·SAC 125
−20pp
Q4·35.8
DeMar DeRozan makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nique Clifford assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MEM 126·SAC 125
+16pp
Q4·43.9
Kings Full timeout
MEM 126·SAC 122
Q4·43.9
Cam Spencer makes 16-foot driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
MEM 126·SAC 122
−8pp
Q4·1:04
DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
MEM 124·SAC 122
−9pp
Q4·1:04
DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 1 of 2
MEM 124·SAC 121
+2pp
Q4·1:04
Cedric Coward shooting foulBIG MOMENT
MEM 124·SAC 120
+12pp
Q4·1:17
GG Jackson makes 14-foot fade away jump shotBIG MOMENT
MEM 124·SAC 120
−7pp
Q4·1:37
DeMar DeRozan makes 16-foot jumper (Devin Carter assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MEM 122·SAC 120
+6pp
Q4·1:49
Olivier-Maxence Prosper enters the game for Jahmai Mashack
·
MEM 122·SAC 118
Q4·1:49
Cam Spencer out of bounds bad pass turnoverBIG MOMENT
MEM 122·SAC 118
+6pp
Q4·1:50
Cam Spencer defensive rebound
MEM 122·SAC 118
−2pp
Q4·1:51
Nique Clifford misses 26-foot three point jumper
MEM 122·SAC 118
−5pp
Q4·2:08
Cam Spencer makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jahmai Mashack assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MEM 122·SAC 118
−15pp
Q4·2:32
Dylan Cardwell makes 3-foot layup (Nique Clifford assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MEM 119·SAC 118
+7pp
Q4·2:49
Cedric Coward enters the game for Javon Small
·
MEM 119·SAC 116
Q4·2:49
De'Andre Hunter enters the game for Russell Westbrook
·
MEM 119·SAC 116
Q4·2:49
Jaylen Wells out of bounds lost ball turnoverBIG MOMENT
MEM 119·SAC 116
+6pp
Q4·3:07
Devin Carter makes 3-foot running pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
MEM 119·SAC 116
+5pp
Q4·3:15
DeMar DeRozan defensive rebound
MEM 119·SAC 114
+1pp
Q4·3:17
Javon Small misses 25-foot three point jumper
MEM 119·SAC 114
+3pp
Q4·3:31
GG Jackson enters the game for Olivier-Maxence Prosper
·
MEM 119·SAC 114
Q4·3:31
Grizzlies Full timeout
MEM 119·SAC 114

Betting line

SAC -2.5·O/U 236.5·MEM +124/SAC -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

emphis Grizzlies went into Sacramento Kings and beat them, 129–125. Decided by 4.

MEM +2.5 cashed (SAC lost outright). Total cleared the 236.5 OVER by 17.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Ty JeromeMEM · G
USG%33.999
Olivier-Maxence ProsperMEM · F
TS%66.293
Maxime RaynaudSAC · C
CONT7.593
Russell WestbrookSAC · G
DRIVES11.692
Cam SpencerMEM · G
TS%64.992

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MEM favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SAC vs MEM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 120 high confidence

Points

Ty JeromeMEM
18.9± 4.2medium
DeMar DeRozanSAC
18.0± 12.6high
Zach LaVineSAC
17.6± 7.7high

Rebounds

Zach EdeyMEM
11.3± 7.8low
Domantas SabonisSAC
10.6± 3.5high
Maxime RaynaudSAC
8.3± 2.4high

Assists

Ty JeromeMEM
5.4± 2.7medium
DeMar DeRozanSAC
4.8± 3.7high
Walter Clayton Jr.MEM
4.7± 2.9high

Blocks

Zach EdeyMEM
1.9± 2.3low
Dylan CardwellSAC
1.7± 1.7high
Keegan MurraySAC
1.4± 0.8high

Steals

Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM
1.9± 2.1low
Taylor HendricksMEM
1.5± 2.0high
Jahmai MashackMEM
1.3± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MEM

league avg

SAC

53.3%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.5%

45.6%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.7%

114.7

PPG

◀

114.9

111.0

27.8

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.5

14.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR