NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+27NY

29-18

11992

TOR

29-20

NBAWed, Jan 28FinalSeriesNY leads series 3-0VegasTOR -1.5

NY · top performer

OG Anunoby

F · #8

28.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

TOR · top performer

Brandon Ingram

F · #3

23.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNY ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 15pp · 3rd Quarter · 5:05

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. AnunobyF · #8	34	26	11-18	2-6	2-3	+18	3	5
K. TownsC · #32	35	8	3-11	0-2	2-2	+19	22	2
J. HartG · #3	35	22	7-11	4-7	4-6	+10	5	6
M. BridgesG · #25	36	30	12-15	4-6	2-2	+19	1	4
J. BrunsonG · #11	30	13	5-13	0-3	3-3	+3	1	4
Bench
G. YabuseleF · #28	7	4	2-4	0-2	—	+3	5	0
M. DiawaraF · #51	7	0	0-1	0-1	—	+8	0	0
A. HukportiC · #55	8	2	—	—	2-2	+11	5	0
J. ClarksonG · #00	7	0	0-3	0-1	—	+1	1	0
L. ShametG · #44	21	9	3-10	3-9	—	+20	4	1
T. KolekG · #13	20	5	2-4	1-1	—	+23	1	10
Team		119	45-90	14-38	15-18		48	32

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	34	27	10-16	1-3	6-6	-14	6	2
R. BarrettF · #9	24	14	3-13	1-4	7-8	-10	8	3
S. BarnesF · #4	32	17	6-13	1-3	4-5	-14	10	5
C. Murray-BoylesF · #12	28	4	1-2	—	2-4	-9	5	4
I. QuickleyG · #5	30	7	3-9	1-2	—	-4	4	3
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	25	9	4-8	1-4	—	-8	4	1
J. BattleF · #77	2	0	—	—	—	-10	0	0
J. MogboF · #2	2	0	0-1	—	—	-10	0	0
G. TempleG · #17	2	0	—	—	—	-10	0	0
O. AgbajiG · #30	2	0	—	—	—	-10	0	0
J. SheadG · #23	23	3	1-4	1-3	—	-8	2	1
J. WalterG · #14	20	0	0-6	0-4	—	-19	1	1
G. DickG · #1	16	11	2-7	1-3	6-6	-9	3	0
Team		92	30-79	7-26	25-29		43	20

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

45-90

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

30-79

FG %

14-38

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

7-26

15-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

25-29

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

NY leads series 3-0

Nov 30

TOR94@

NY116

Dec 10

NY117@

TOR101

Jan 29

NY119@

TOR92today

Mar 4

NY111@

TOR95

Apr 10

TOR95@

NY112

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

220.5

Standard · -5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NY+10250%

TOR-12255%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

220.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NY beat TOR 119-92. O. Anunoby paced them with 26 PTS, 3 REB, 5 AST. NY outscored the other side 35-19 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

TOR vs NY

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NYstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

99 PTS · 32 REB · 21 AST

GS 91

Bench(6)

20 PTS · 16 REB · 11 AST

GS 15

TORstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

69 PTS · 33 REB · 17 AST

GS 56

Bench(8)

23 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST

GS 11

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

TOR2nd Quarter · 1:41 · 40-47

+10pp→ 75% WP

Jalen Brunson · out of bounds lost ball turnover

NY3rd Quarter · 5:05 · 67-68

+15pp→ 43% WP

Landry Shamet · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)

TOR3rd Quarter · 1:13 · 77-70

+13pp→ 19% WP

Scottie Barnes · lost ball turnover (OG Anunoby steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NY	18	29	35	37	119
TOR	28	23	19	22	92

Period scoring

NY won 3 · TOR won 1

Anunoby 7

Barnes 7

Anunoby 7

Brunson 12

Bridges 19

Ingram 10

Hart 11

Mamukelashvili 9

TOR

Shooting comparison

TOR

50%

45-90

38%

30-79

37%

14-38

3PT

27%

7-26

83%

15-18

86%

25-29

Play-by-play · 486 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 119·TOR 92
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 119·TOR 92
Q4·7.6
shot clock turnover
NY 119·TOR 92
Q4·29.5
Guerschon Yabusele defensive rebound
NY 119·TOR 92
Q4·34.2
Ja'Kobe Walter misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
NY 119·TOR 92
Q4·48.1
Tyler Kolek makes 12-foot step back jumpshot
NY 119·TOR 92
Q4·1:07
Jonathan Mogbo bad pass turnover (Landry Shamet steals)
·
NY 117·TOR 92
Q4·1:11
Ariel Hukporti lost ball turnover (Jonathan Mogbo steals)
·
NY 117·TOR 92
Q4·1:12
Ariel Hukporti defensive rebound
NY 117·TOR 92
Q4·1:15
Jonathan Mogbo misses driving floating jump shot
NY 117·TOR 92
Q4·1:27
Ariel Hukporti makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 117·TOR 92
Q4·1:27
Ariel Hukporti makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 116·TOR 92
Q4·1:27
Ochai Agbaji shooting foul
NY 115·TOR 92
Q4·1:27
Ariel Hukporti offensive rebound
NY 115·TOR 92
Q4·1:28
Guerschon Yabusele misses 25-foot three point jumper
NY 115·TOR 92
Q4·1:37
Ariel Hukporti defensive rebound
NY 115·TOR 92
Q4·1:40
Ja'Kobe Walter misses 26-foot three point jumper
NY 115·TOR 92
Q4·2:00
Guerschon Yabusele makes two point shot (Tyler Kolek assists)
·
NY 115·TOR 92
Q4·2:14
Mohamed Diawara enters the game for Josh Hart
·
NY 113·TOR 92
Q4·2:14
Josh Hart makes free throw flagrant 2 of 2
NY 113·TOR 92
Q4·2:14
Knicks offensive team rebound
NY 112·TOR 92
Q4·2:14
Josh Hart misses free throw flagrant 1 of 2
NY 112·TOR 92
Q4·2:14
Tyler Kolek enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns
·
NY 112·TOR 92
Q4·2:14
Ariel Hukporti enters the game for Mikal Bridges
·
NY 112·TOR 92
Q4·2:14
Guerschon Yabusele enters the game for Jalen Brunson
·
NY 112·TOR 92
Q4·2:14
Landry Shamet enters the game for OG Anunoby
·
NY 112·TOR 92
Q4·2:14
(02:14) [Knicks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)
NY 112·TOR 92
Q4·2:14
Garrett Temple flagrant foul type 1
NY 112·TOR 92
Q4·2:14
Josh Hart makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)
·
NY 112·TOR 92
Q4·2:28
Jamison Battle enters the game for Sandro Mamukelashvili
·
NY 109·TOR 92

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 220.5·NY +102/TOR -122

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ew York Knicks went into Toronto Raptors and beat them, 119–92. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

NY +1.5 cashed (TOR lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 220.5 by 9.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

Jalen BrunsonNY · G
TOUCHES89.699
Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
RJ BarrettTOR · F
DRIVES16.498
Josh HartNY · G
DEFL4.198
OG AnunobyNY · F
CONT8.496

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

TOR

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

54.5%

48.0%

FG%

47.0

48.1%

116.4

PPG

◀

114.9

114.3

27.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.2

12.7

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR