NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6NO

11-36

133127

MEM

18-25

NBAFri, Jan 23FinalSeriesMEM leads series 2-1VegasMEM -4.5

NO · top performer

Saddiq Bey

G · #41

32.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MEM · top performer

Cam Spencer

G · #24

23.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNO ↔ MEM

Biggest swing: 30pp · 4th Quarter · 41.6

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. JonesF · #2	25	0	0-3	0-3	—	+1	0	5
Z. WilliamsonF · #1	33	24	9-17	—	6-11	+12	11	4
T. Murphy IIIF · #25	36	32	9-15	2-7	12-12	+6	3	3
D. QueenC · #22	27	8	2-8	—	4-4	+7	9	5
S. BeyG · #41	32	36	13-20	6-9	4-4	+5	4	4
Bench
K. MatkovicF · #17	15	5	2-4	1-3	—	-6	6	1
Y. MissiC · #21	21	8	4-9	—	—	-1	8	0
J. PooleG · #3	12	6	2-8	2-7	—	+5	4	3
M. PeavyG · #14	16	2	1-5	0-3	—	-4	2	0
J. FearsG · #0	23	12	4-10	2-4	2-2	+5	2	4
Team		133	46-99	13-36	28-33		49	29
DNP: K. Looney, D. Jordan, J. Hawkins

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. Jackson Jr.F · #8	32	26	7-18	2-8	10-11	+1	12	3
C. CowardF · #23	28	13	5-11	3-7	—	-2	3	4
J. WellsF · #0	25	11	4-7	1-3	2-3	+3	3	3
J. LandaleC · #31	32	24	11-18	2-5	—	-3	11	2
C. SpencerG · #24	28	21	7-9	4-6	3-4	-2	5	11
Bench
GG JacksonF · #45	23	15	6-10	3-4	—	-3	4	1
K. Caldwell-PopeG · #3	23	4	1-9	0-6	2-2	-8	3	3
J. KoncharG · #46	20	0	0-1	0-1	—	-8	4	1
V. Williams Jr.G · #5	20	6	2-7	2-6	—	-4	2	4
J. SmallG · #10	9	7	2-2	1-1	2-2	-4	0	2
Team		127	45-92	18-47	19-22		47	34
DNP: S. Aldama, O. Prosper

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

MEM

Home

46-99

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-92

FG %

13-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

18-47

28-33

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

19-22

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MEM leads series 2-1

Oct 23

NO122@

MEM128

Nov 27

MEM133@

NO128

Jan 24

NO133@

MEM127today

Jan 31

MEM106@

NO114

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MEM -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

240.5

High-scoring · +14.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NO+16438%

MEM-19866%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MEM -4.5↗SpreadBet MEM -4.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

240.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NO beat MEM 133-127. S. Bey led the way with 36 points and 4 assists. NO outscored the other side 40-26 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MEM vs NO

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NOstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

100 PTS · 27 REB · 21 AST

GS 95

Bench(5)

33 PTS · 22 REB · 8 AST

GS 27

MEMstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

95 PTS · 34 REB · 23 AST

GS 85

Bench(5)

32 PTS · 13 REB · 11 AST

GS 20

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NO4th Quarter · 4:11 · 115-112

+20pp→ 73% WP

Jaren Jackson Jr. · misses 8-foot two point shot

MEM4th Quarter · 2:10 · 122-120

+18pp→ 44% WP

Trey Murphy III · shooting foul

NO4th Quarter · 41.6 · 128-123

+30pp→ 93% WP

Jock Landale · misses 13-foot fade away jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NO	30	30	33	40	133
MEM	30	35	36	26	127

Period scoring

NO won 1 · MEM won 2

III 9

Landale 9

Williamson 9

Jr. 11

Bey 8

Jr. 23

Bey 19

Spencer 12

MEM

Shooting comparison

MEM

46%

46-99

49%

45-92

36%

13-36

3PT

38%

18-47

85%

28-33

86%

19-22

Play-by-play · 512 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NO 133·MEM 127
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NO 133·MEM 127
Q4·1.3
Cam Spencer makes 18-foot pullup jump shot
NO 133·MEM 127
Q4·8.3
Trey Murphy III makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 133·MEM 125
Q4·8.3
Trey Murphy III makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 132·MEM 125
Q4·8.3
GG Jackson personal take foul
NO 131·MEM 125
−0.9pp
Q4·16.7
GG Jackson makes 1-foot driving dunk (Cam Spencer assists)
·
NO 131·MEM 125
Q4·21.0
Trey Murphy III makes free throw 1 of 1
NO 131·MEM 123
+0.6pp
Q4·21.0
GG Jackson shooting foul
NO 130·MEM 123
−1pp
Q4·21.0
Trey Murphy III makes 9-foot two point shot
NO 130·MEM 123
−4pp
Q4·38.7
Derik Queen defensive rebound
NO 128·MEM 123
−1pp
Q4·41.6
Jock Landale misses 13-foot fade away jump shotBIG MOMENT
NO 128·MEM 123
−30pp
Q4·58.9
Grizzlies Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
NO 128·MEM 123
+24pp
Q4·58.9
Saddiq Bey makes 22-foot three point jumper (Herbert Jones assists)BIG MOMENT
·
NO 128·MEM 123
−13pp
Q4·1:06
Trey Murphy III defensive rebound
NO 125·MEM 123
−3pp
Q4·1:09
Jaren Jackson Jr. misses 3-foot tip shotBIG MOMENT
·
NO 125·MEM 123
−8pp
Q4·1:09
Jaren Jackson Jr. offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
·
NO 125·MEM 123
+8pp
Q4·1:10
Jaren Jackson Jr. misses two point shotBIG MOMENT
·
NO 125·MEM 123
−9pp
Q4·1:25
Zion Williamson makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
NO 125·MEM 123
+8pp
Q4·1:25
Jaren Jackson Jr. shooting foulBIG MOMENT
·
NO 124·MEM 123
−17pp
Q4·1:25
Zion Williamson makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
NO 124·MEM 123
−9pp
Q4·1:35
Jaren Jackson Jr. makes driving layup (Cam Spencer assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
NO 122·MEM 123
+9pp
Q4·1:41
GG Jackson defensive rebound
NO 122·MEM 121
+3pp
Q4·1:45
Jaren Jackson Jr. blocks Derik Queen 's 2-foot running dunkBIG MOMENT
· ·
NO 122·MEM 121
+7pp
Q4·1:49
Cam Spencer bad pass turnover (Zion Williamson steals)BIG MOMENT
·
NO 122·MEM 121
−10pp
Q4·1:52
Jock Landale defensive rebound
NO 122·MEM 121
+3pp
Q4·1:55
Derik Queen misses 7-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
NO 122·MEM 121
+7pp
Q4·2:10
Cam Spencer makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
NO 122·MEM 121
−8pp
Q4·2:10
Trey Murphy III shooting foulBIG MOMENT
NO 122·MEM 120
+18pp
Q4·2:10
Cam Spencer makes 26-foot three pointer (Cedric Coward assists)BIG MOMENT
·
NO 122·MEM 120
+11pp

Betting line

MEM -4.5·O/U 240.5·NO +164/MEM -198

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ew Orleans Pelicans went into Memphis Grizzlies and beat them, 133–127.

NO +4.5 cashed (MEM lost outright). Total cleared the 240.5 OVER by 19.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Karlo MatkovicNO · F
TS%69.698
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH · F
CONT9.197
Herbert JonesNO · F
DEFL3.596
Zion WilliamsonNO · F
DRIVES13.796
Cam SpencerMEM · G
TS%64.992

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · NO favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MEM vs NO.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 110 high confidence

Points

Trey Murphy IIINO
20.0± 6.2high
Jeremiah FearsNO
19.9± 10.9high
Saddiq BeyNO
19.2± 4.8high

Rebounds

Zach EdeyMEM
11.3± 7.8low
Derik QueenNO
8.1± 5.6high
Kevon LooneyNO
6.6± 3.6high

Assists

Dejounte MurrayNO
6.4± 4.4low
Ty JeromeMEM
5.4± 2.7medium
Walter Clayton Jr.MEM
4.7± 2.9high

Blocks

Zach EdeyMEM
1.9± 2.3low
Yves MissiNO
1.8± 1.5high
Derik QueenNO
1.0± 0.9high

Steals

Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM
1.9± 2.1low
Dejounte MurrayNO
1.6± 0.9low
Taylor HendricksMEM
1.5± 2.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

MEM

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

53.3%

46.6%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.6%

115.5

PPG

114.9

114.7

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.8

13.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR