NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+13SA

UTAH

14-29

110123

30-13

NBAMon, Jan 19FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasSA -16.5

UTAH · top performer

Keyonte George

G · #3

21.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SA · top performer

Victor Wembanyama

F · #1

29.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowUTAH ↔ SA

Biggest swing: 5pp · 2nd Quarter · 9:38

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
C. WilliamsF · #5	24	5	2-7	1-2	—	-1	3	0
J. NurkicC · #30	26	20	9-17	2-4	—	-8	9	5
S. MykhailiukG · #10	24	10	3-7	2-4	2-2	-18	2	3
K. GeorgeG · #3	34	30	7-20	4-10	12-14	-14	3	6
A. BaileyG · #19	27	8	3-6	2-3	—	-7	4	4
Bench
K. LoveF · #42	21	6	1-6	1-3	3-3	-4	11	2
K. FilipowskiF · #22	26	13	4-10	0-3	5-6	-5	6	2
T. HendricksF · #0	5	0	0-1	0-1	—	+9	0	0
I. CollierG · #8	23	10	4-7	1-2	1-2	-10	1	2
W. Clayton Jr.G · #13	32	8	4-11	0-5	—	-7	3	7
Team		110	37-92	13-37	23-27		42	31
DNP: G. Niang, K. Anderson

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. BarnesF · #40	22	10	4-7	1-4	1-1	+17	1	4
J. ChampagnieF · #30	28	13	5-11	3-8	—	+17	4	0
V. WembanyamaF · #1	26	33	10-18	7-12	6-6	+8	10	1
D. FoxG · #4	33	14	6-11	2-3	—	+24	5	8
S. CastleG · #5	31	18	5-9	1-4	7-10	-6	2	8
Bench
K. OlynykF · #8	7	0	—	—	0-2	-8	0	0
L. Waters IIIF · #43	5	0	0-3	0-3	—	-13	0	0
K. JohnsonF · #3	24	2	1-4	—	—	-1	3	2
C. BryantF · #11	14	11	4-5	1-2	2-2	+7	3	0
L. KornetC · #7	22	7	3-4	—	1-2	+6	7	4
J. McLaughlinG · #0	1	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
D. HarperG · #2	25	15	6-7	1-2	2-2	+16	3	5
Team		123	44-79	16-38	19-25		38	32
DNP: J. Sochan, B. Biyombo

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

UTAH

Away

Stat

Home

37-92

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

44-79

FG %

13-37

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-38

23-27

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

19-25

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 28

UTAH127@

SA114

Jan 19

UTAH110@

SA123today

Jan 23

SA126@

UTAH109

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -16.5

Between 10 and —

Total

237.5

High-scoring · +11.5 vs avg

Moneyline

UTAH+65013%

SA-100091%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -16.5↗SpreadBet SA -16.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

16.5

0.0 since open

Total

237.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SA beat UTAH 123-110. V. Wembanyama paced them with 33 PTS, 10 REB, 1 AST. SA outscored the other side 35-23 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SA vs UTAH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

UTAHstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

73 PTS · 21 REB · 18 AST

GS 53

Bench(5)

37 PTS · 21 REB · 13 AST

GS 35

SAstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

88 PTS · 22 REB · 21 AST

GS 79

Bench(7)

35 PTS · 16 REB · 11 AST

GS 35

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
UTAH	26	31	23	30	110
SA	34	27	35	27	123

Period scoring

UTAH won 2 · SA won 2

George 9

Wembanyama 13

Bailey 8

Fox 9

George 9

Castle 11

Nurkic 7

Wembanyama 7

UTAH

Shooting comparison

UTAH

40%

37-92

56%

44-79

35%

13-37

3PT

42%

16-38

85%

23-27

76%

19-25

Play-by-play · 483 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
UTAH 110·SA 123
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
UTAH 110·SA 123
Q4·1.9
shot clock turnover
UTAH 110·SA 123
Q4·23.2
Dylan Harper defensive rebound
UTAH 110·SA 123
Q4·27.0
Carter Bryant blocks Cody Williams 's 3-foot layup
·
UTAH 110·SA 123
Q4·42.6
Kyle Filipowski defensive rebound
UTAH 110·SA 123
Q4·44.9
Kelly Olynyk misses free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 110·SA 123
Q4·44.9
Spurs offensive team rebound
UTAH 110·SA 123
Q4·44.9
Kelly Olynyk misses free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 110·SA 123
Q4·44.9
Taylor Hendricks personal foul
UTAH 110·SA 123
Q4·1:01
Kyle Filipowski makes dunk (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)
·
UTAH 110·SA 123
Q4·1:09
Jazz defensive team rebound
UTAH 108·SA 123
Q4·1:09
Lindy Waters III misses 26-foot three point jumper
UTAH 108·SA 123
Q4·1:21
Carter Bryant enters the game for Julian Champagnie
·
UTAH 108·SA 123
Q4·1:21
Kelly Olynyk enters the game for Luke Kornet
·
UTAH 108·SA 123
Q4·1:21
Lindy Waters III enters the game for Stephon Castle
·
UTAH 108·SA 123
Q4·1:21
Dylan Harper enters the game for De'Aaron Fox
·
UTAH 108·SA 123
Q4·1:21
Jordan McLaughlin enters the game for Keldon Johnson
·
UTAH 108·SA 123
Q4·1:21
Spurs Full timeout
UTAH 108·SA 123
Q4·1:21
Walter Clayton Jr. makes 19-foot pullup jump shot
UTAH 108·SA 123
Q4·1:26
Julian Champagnie makes tip in dunk
UTAH 106·SA 123
Q4·1:26
Julian Champagnie offensive rebound
UTAH 106·SA 121
Q4·1:29
Stephon Castle misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
UTAH 106·SA 121
Q4·1:37
Luke Kornet offensive rebound
UTAH 106·SA 121
Q4·1:40
Stephon Castle misses running pullup jump shot
UTAH 106·SA 121
Q4·1:43
De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
UTAH 106·SA 121
Q4·1:45
Keldon Johnson blocks Cody Williams 's 4-foot layup
·
UTAH 106·SA 121
Q4·1:58
Stephon Castle makes free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 106·SA 121
Q4·1:58
Ace Bailey enters the game for Keyonte George
·
UTAH 106·SA 120
Q4·1:58
Spurs offensive team rebound
UTAH 106·SA 120

Betting line

SA -16.5·O/U 237.5·UTAH +650/SA -1000

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs held off Utah Jazz, 123–110.

UTAH +16.5 cashed (SA won by 13). Total stayed UNDER 237.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH · G
TOUCHES78.797
Stephon CastleSA · G
TOUCHES71.594
Jusuf NurkicUTAH · C
DEFL2.790

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · UTAH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SA vs UTAH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Lauri MarkkanenUTAH
24.2± 5.0high
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH
21.4± 8.8high
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH
20.7± 4.8high

Rebounds

Jusuf NurkicUTAH
11.4± 4.1high
Kyle FilipowskiUTAH
8.1± 2.6high
John KoncharUTAH
6.6± 3.4high

Assists

Isaiah CollierUTAH
6.6± 2.5high
Kennedy ChandlerUTAH
6.5± 2.2medium
De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high

Blocks

Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH
1.3± 1.3high
Ace BaileyUTAH
1.0± 1.0high
John KoncharUTAH
1.0± 1.0high

Steals

Bez MbengUTAH
2.5± 1.7medium
John KoncharUTAH
1.9± 1.7high
Elijah HarklessUTAH
1.5± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

UTAH

league avg

53.6%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.3%

46.7%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.7%

117.6

PPG

114.9

118.2

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

27.3

15.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR