Atlanta Dream at Washington Mystics
ATL
9-4
WSH
6-7
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
tlanta Dream visit Washington Mystics Thursday at 7/2 - 7:30 PM EDT. ATL is rolling — 5-2 in their last 7. WSH is 3-4 in their last 7.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Season series
ATL leads series 1-0
WSH77@ATL109ATL@WSHtodayATL@WSHupcomingScouting report
ATL @ WSH
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
—
Model
ATL -37.9
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
ATL
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
9-4
Record
6-7
#2
Conf rank
#5
+6.4
Pt diff
-4.3
W1
Streak
W1
7-3
Last 10
4-6
77.0
Power score
39.0
#3
Power rank
#10
58.1
Sched ahead
93.2
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Team stats
ATL
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
43
FG %
44
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
43.9%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
31%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
WSH vs ATL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Rhyne HowardATL18.7± 11.1low
- Allisha GrayATL17.8± 5.6medium
- Sonia CitronWSH16.4± 10.2low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL11.9± 4.2medium
- Kiki IriafenWSH8.7± 6.2low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.1± 4.2low
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL6.9± 3.4medium
- Sonia CitronWSH3.6± 2.8low
- Alicia FlorezWSH3.4± 3.4low
Blocks
- Shakira AustinWSH1.4± 1.4low
- Rhyne HowardATL0.8± 1.5low
- Angel ReeseATL0.7± 0.8medium
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL3.0± 2.5low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 1.6medium
- Angel ReeseATL1.5± 1.7medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
ATL
league avg
WSH
43.5%
FG%
44.5
▶44.7%
32.9%
3PT %
33.3
30.0%
87.1
PPG
85.5
81.9
19.8
Assists / G
18.0
18.8
12.9
Turnovers / G
13.0
16.0