NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+23ATL

ATL

19-21

11087

DEN

25-13

NBAFri, Jan 9FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasATL -3.5

ATL · top performer

Jalen Johnson

F · #1

27.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DEN · top performer

Peyton Watson

G · #8

18.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowATL ↔ DEN

Biggest swing: 12pp · 3rd Quarter · 4:03

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. OkongwuF · #17	35	15	6-14	3-7	—	+32	5	5
J. JohnsonF · #1	35	29	12-18	5-6	0-1	+11	9	6
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	33	22	9-21	3-11	1-1	+9	8	3
V. KrejciG · #27	27	0	0-8	0-7	—	+7	0	1
D. DanielsG · #5	36	17	8-14	0-2	1-2	+25	11	10
Bench
M. GueyeF · #18	19	0	0-2	0-1	—	-12	2	0
A. NewellF · #14	11	9	4-5	1-2	—	+20	4	0
L. KennardG · #3	27	8	3-6	2-4	—	+18	1	4
K. WallaceG · #2	17	10	4-6	2-3	—	+5	0	2
Team		110	46-94	16-43	2-4		40	31
DNP: Z. Risacher, K. Porzingis, N. Dante

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. TysonF · #5	27	10	4-9	2-4	—	+5	4	4
D. Holmes IIF · #14	15	6	2-3	2-3	—	-5	1	0
J. PickettG · #24	33	7	3-6	1-4	—	-12	6	6
C. BraunG · #0	25	0	0-5	0-3	—	-8	4	0
P. WatsonG · #8	34	25	9-19	2-4	5-7	+2	11	4
Bench
A. GordonF · #32	24	14	5-11	1-5	3-4	-19	9	5
Z. NnajiF · #22	21	12	4-5	1-2	3-3	-24	3	0
T. Hardaway Jr.G · #10	26	10	3-8	2-6	2-2	-19	2	1
B. BrownG · #11	24	3	0-3	—	3-4	-23	3	2
J. StrawtherG · #3	10	0	0-3	0-1	—	-12	1	0
Team		87	30-72	11-32	16-20		44	22
DNP: J. Murray

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

DEN

Home

46-94

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

30-72

FG %

16-43

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-32

2-4

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-20

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 6

DEN134@

ATL133

Jan 10

ATL110@

DEN87today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

229.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATL-14860%

DEN+12445%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -3.5↗SpreadBet ATL -3.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

229.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ATL beat DEN 110-87. J. Johnson paced them with 29 PTS, 9 REB, 6 AST. ATL outscored the other side 36-12 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DEN vs ATL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ATLstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 33 REB · 25 AST

GS 77

Bench(4)

27 PTS · 7 REB · 6 AST

GS 26

DENstarters 55% of pts

Starters(5)

48 PTS · 26 REB · 14 AST

GS 36

Bench(5)

39 PTS · 18 REB · 8 AST

GS 25

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ATL3rd Quarter · 4:03 · 69-61

+12pp→ 80% WP

Mouhamed Gueye · personal foul

ATL4th Quarter · 11:53 · 76-75

+11pp→ 63% WP

Aaron Gordon · shooting foul

DEN4th Quarter · 10:48 · 81-77

+10pp→ 37% WP

Asa Newell · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ATL	30	28	16	36	110
DEN	28	22	25	12	87

Period scoring

ATL won 3 · DEN won 1

Alexander-Walker 8

II 6

Johnson 8

Watson 10

Alexander-Walker 7

Tyson 10

Johnson 12

Nnaji 8

ATL

DEN

Shooting comparison

ATL

DEN

49%

46-94

42%

30-72

37%

16-43

3PT

34%

11-32

50%

2-4

80%

16-20

Play-by-play · 421 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 110·DEN 87
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 110·DEN 87
Q4·16.5
Zeke Nnaji makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Pickett assists)
·
ATL 110·DEN 87
Q4·26.8
Nuggets defensive team rebound
ATL 110·DEN 84
Q4·28.9
Vit Krejci misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
ATL 110·DEN 84
Q4·50.5
Asa Newell defensive rebound
ATL 110·DEN 84
Q4·54.7
Hunter Tyson misses driving layup
ATL 110·DEN 84
Q4·1:16
Keaton Wallace makes 19-foot step back jumpshot
ATL 110·DEN 84
Q4·1:31
Luke Kennard defensive rebound
ATL 108·DEN 84
Q4·1:34
Hunter Tyson misses 13-foot two point shot
ATL 108·DEN 84
Q4·1:43
Asa Newell enters the game for Nickeil Alexander-Walker
·
ATL 108·DEN 84
Q4·1:43
Vit Krejci enters the game for Dyson Daniels
·
ATL 108·DEN 84
Q4·1:43
Keaton Wallace enters the game for Jalen Johnson
·
ATL 108·DEN 84
Q4·1:43
Mouhamed Gueye personal foul
ATL 108·DEN 84
Q4·1:46
Zeke Nnaji defensive rebound
ATL 108·DEN 84
Q4·1:49
Jalen Johnson misses driving floating jump shot
ATL 108·DEN 84
Q4·2:02
Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
ATL 108·DEN 84
Q4·2:05
Jalen Pickett misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
ATL 108·DEN 84
Q4·2:27
Jalen Johnson makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
ATL 108·DEN 84
Q4·2:41
Mouhamed Gueye enters the game for Onyeka Okongwu
·
ATL 105·DEN 84
Q4·2:41
Zeke Nnaji enters the game for Bruce Brown
·
ATL 105·DEN 84
Q4·2:41
Julian Strawther loose ball foul
ATL 105·DEN 84
Q4·2:42
Julian Strawther lost ball turnover
ATL 105·DEN 84
Q4·2:46
Julian Strawther defensive rebound
ATL 105·DEN 84
Q4·2:49
Dyson Daniels misses 27-foot three point jumper
ATL 105·DEN 84
Q4·3:04
Julian Strawther offensive foul turnover
ATL 105·DEN 84
Q4·3:04
Julian Strawther offensive foul
ATL 105·DEN 84
Q4·3:24
Jalen Johnson makes 13-foot step back jumpshot
ATL 105·DEN 84
Q4·3:34
Nickeil Alexander-Walker defensive rebound
ATL 103·DEN 84
Q4·3:37
Bruce Brown misses 18-foot pullup jump shot
ATL 103·DEN 84

Betting line

ATL -3.5·O/U 229.5·ATL -148/DEN +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

tlanta Hawks went into Denver Nuggets and beat them, 110–87. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ATL -3.5 cashed (won by 23). Total stayed UNDER 229.5 by 32.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.299
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.299
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
TOUCHES79.397
Aaron GordonDEN · F
CONT6.790
Peyton WatsonDEN · G
CONT6.187

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ATL

league avg

DEN

55.1%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.2%

47.2%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.2%

117.2

PPG

114.9

▶

121.1

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

28.7

13.4

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR