NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1DEN

DEN

24-12

125124

PHI

19-15

NBAMon, Jan 5FinalSeriesDEN leads series 1-0VegasPHI -14.5

DEN · top performer

Jalen Pickett

G · #24

21.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHI · top performer

Tyrese Maxey

G · #0

25.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDEN ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 43pp · OT · 5.3

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final / OT

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. Holmes IIF · #14	21	2	1-4	0-3	—	+3	1	4
S. JonesF · #21	43	10	4-6	1-3	1-2	+8	3	2
B. BrownG · #11	39	19	7-13	2-4	3-4	-8	6	2
J. PickettG · #24	42	29	11-20	7-11	—	+6	5	7
P. WatsonG · #8	44	24	7-13	2-3	8-10	+2	7	4
Bench
H. TysonF · #5	19	14	4-7	2-4	4-4	+2	3	1
Z. NnajiF · #22	32	21	7-11	4-5	3-4	-2	8	1
J. StrawtherG · #3	15	6	2-5	0-2	2-4	-5	4	5
C. JonesG · #1	8	0	0-2	0-2	—	-1	1	0
Team		125	43-81	18-37	21-28		38	26
DNP: A. Gordon, C. Braun

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. GeorgeF · #8	32	8	3-10	2-7	—	-18	2	3
D. BarlowF · #25	13	6	2-6	1-4	1-1	-7	2	0
J. EmbiidC · #21	40	32	13-22	1-4	5-5	+8	10	2
T. MaxeyG · #0	46	28	10-22	4-9	4-6	-1	6	6
V. EdgecombeG · #77	42	17	6-17	5-11	—	-7	8	9
Bench
J. WalkerF · #33	12	6	3-4	—	—	+11	4	0
A. BonaC · #30	23	8	4-5	—	0-1	-6	6	2
Q. GrimesG · #5	40	16	4-8	3-7	5-6	+9	4	2
J. McCainG · #20	19	3	1-4	1-3	—	+6	0	4
Team		124	46-98	17-45	15-19		42	28
DNP: J. Edwards, A. Drummond, K. Lowry, E. Gordon

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DEN

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

43-81

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

46-98

FG %

18-37

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

17-45

21-28

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-19

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DEN leads series 1-0

Jan 6

DEN125@

PHI124today

Mar 18

PHI96@

DEN124

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -14.5

Between 10 and —

Total

228.5

Standard · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DEN+57515%

PHI-85089%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -14.5↗SpreadBet PHI -14.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

14.5

0.0 since open

Total

228.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DEN beat PHI 125-124. J. Pickett paced them with 29 PTS, 5 REB, 7 AST. Bruce Brown's play in the ot drove the biggest swing of the night (43pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHI vs DEN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DENstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

84 PTS · 22 REB · 19 AST

GS 65

Bench(4)

41 PTS · 16 REB · 7 AST

GS 36

PHIstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

91 PTS · 28 REB · 20 AST

GS 75

Bench(4)

33 PTS · 14 REB · 8 AST

GS 29

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHI4th Quarter · 0.0 · 120-120

+30pp→ 50% WP

End of the 4th Quarter

DENOT · 52.0 · 123-124

+24pp→ 41% WP

Tyrese Maxey · misses 24-foot three point jumper

DENOT · 5.3 · 125-124

+43pp→ 73% WP

Bruce Brown · makes running layup

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	T
DEN	29	29	29	33	5	125
PHI	26	32	35	27	4	124

Period scoring

DEN won 3 · PHI won 2

Jones 8

Embiid 11

Pickett 11

Embiid 14

Pickett 8

Tyson 29

Nnaji 7

Grimes 8

Pickett 3

Embiid 2

DEN

PHI

Shooting comparison

DEN

PHI

53%

43-81

47%

46-98

49%

18-37

3PT

38%

17-45

75%

21-28

79%

15-19

Play-by-play · 467 plays

period

event

player

OT·0.0
End of Game
DEN 125·PHI 124
OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
DEN 125·PHI 124
−0.5pp
OT·0.1
76ers offensive team rebound
DEN 125·PHI 124
OT·0.2
Tyrese Maxey misses driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
DEN 125·PHI 124
−21pp
OT·5.3
(00:05.3) [Nuggets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)BIG MOMENT
DEN 125·PHI 124
−5pp
OT·5.3
Joel Embiid defensive goaltending violation
DEN 125·PHI 124
OT·5.3
Bruce Brown makes running layupBIG MOMENT
DEN 125·PHI 124
−43pp
OT·10.2
Bruce Brown defensive rebound
DEN 123·PHI 124
−3pp
OT·10.7
Spencer Jones blocks Joel Embiid's tip shotBIG MOMENT
· ·
DEN 123·PHI 124
−9pp
OT·11.1
Joel Embiid offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
DEN 123·PHI 124
+10pp
OT·11.4
VJ Edgecombe misses driving layup
DEN 123·PHI 124
OT·29.4
VJ Edgecombe defensive rebound
DEN 123·PHI 124
+4pp
OT·31.7
Peyton Watson misses 20-foot turnaround jump shotBIG MOMENT
DEN 123·PHI 124
+12pp
OT·38.2
Nuggets Full timeout
DEN 123·PHI 124
OT·38.2
Joel Embiid out of bounds bad pass turnoverBIG MOMENT
DEN 123·PHI 124
−14pp
OT·49.1
VJ Edgecombe offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
DEN 123·PHI 124
+11pp
OT·52.0
Tyrese Maxey misses 24-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
DEN 123·PHI 124
−24pp
OT·1:02
Zeke Nnaji personal foulBIG MOMENT
DEN 123·PHI 124
+16pp
OT·1:14
Peyton Watson out of bounds lost ball turnoverBIG MOMENT
DEN 123·PHI 124
+14pp
OT·1:26
VJ Edgecombe makes 1-foot dunk (Paul George assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DEN 123·PHI 124
+6pp
OT·1:38
shot clock turnover BIG MOMENT
DEN 123·PHI 122
+12pp
OT·1:38
Nuggets offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
DEN 123·PHI 122
−9pp
OT·1:39
Jalen Pickett misses 20-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
DEN 123·PHI 122
+8pp
OT·2:01
Zeke Nnaji defensive rebound
DEN 123·PHI 122
−3pp
OT·2:04
VJ Edgecombe misses 27-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
DEN 123·PHI 122
−8pp
OT·2:19
Spencer Jones offensive foul turnover
·
DEN 123·PHI 122
OT·2:19
Spencer Jones offensive foulBIG MOMENT
·
DEN 123·PHI 122
+10pp
OT·2:25
Bruce Brown defensive rebound
DEN 123·PHI 122
−2pp
OT·2:28
Zeke Nnaji blocks Paul George's two point shotBIG MOMENT
·
DEN 123·PHI 122
−7pp
OT·2:37
Jalen Pickett lost ball turnover (VJ Edgecombe steals)BIG MOMENT
·
DEN 123·PHI 122
+9pp

Betting line

PHI -14.5·O/U 228.5·DEN +575/PHI -850

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

enver Nuggets went into Philadelphia 76ers and beat them, 125–124 in overtime. It came down to the final possession.

DEN +14.5 cashed (PHI lost outright). Total cleared the 228.5 OVER by 20.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Tyrese MaxeyPHI · G
TOUCHES94.599
Joel EmbiidPHI · C
USG%34.399
VJ EdgecombePHI · G
TOUCHES66.190
Adem BonaPHI · C
TS%63.889
Peyton WatsonDEN · G
CONT6.187

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DEN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHI vs DEN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Nikola JokicDEN
26.6± 7.0high
Jaylen BrownPHI
26.6± 6.3high
Joel EmbiidPHI
25.3± 7.2high

Rebounds

Nikola JokicDEN
12.5± 3.1high
Joel EmbiidPHI
8.0± 3.5high
Jaylen BrownPHI
6.1± 2.6high

Assists

Nikola JokicDEN
9.7± 4.5high
Jamal MurrayDEN
6.4± 1.9high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
5.9± 1.9high

Blocks

Joel EmbiidPHI
1.3± 1.4high
Adem BonaPHI
1.1± 1.3high
Nikola JokicDEN
1.0± 1.0high

Steals

Bruce BrownDEN
1.3± 1.5high
Nikola JokicDEN
1.3± 1.7high
Rayan RupertPHI
1.3± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DEN

league avg

PHI

57.2%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.9%

49.2%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.0%

121.1

PPG

◀

114.9

114.3

28.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.1

12.1

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

12.8

Team pages

Denver NuggetsPhiladelphia 76ers

Elsewhere in the NBA

Data via ESPN · hoopR