NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+14BOS

CHI

17-19

101115

BOS

23-12

NBAMon, Jan 5FinalSeriesBOS leads series 1-0VegasBOS -10.5

CHI · top performer

Matas Buzelis

F · #14

21.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

BOS · top performer

Anfernee Simons

G · #4

19.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHI ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 7pp · 1st Quarter · 3:53

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
I. OkoroF · #35	25	5	1-7	1-7	2-2	-6	3	1
M. BuzelisF · #14	31	26	9-12	3-4	5-6	-6	3	2
N. VucevicC · #9	36	15	6-14	3-5	—	-10	15	7
K. HuerterG · #13	20	8	4-9	0-4	—	-12	3	0
T. JonesG · #30	23	10	4-7	0-1	2-2	-7	5	4
Bench
P. WilliamsF · #44	10	2	1-4	0-2	—	-5	2	0
D. TerryF · #7	5	3	1-1	1-1	—	-1	0	0
J. PhillipsF · #15	13	6	2-5	2-4	—	-9	2	0
J. CarterG · #5	12	6	2-6	2-5	—	-1	1	1
C. WhiteG · #0	25	5	2-7	1-5	—	-5	6	3
A. DosunmuG · #11	28	15	6-13	3-7	—	-4	3	5
Olbrich	--	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
Team		101	38-86	16-46	9-10		45	25

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. HauserF · #30	21	9	3-8	3-7	—	+6	1	1
N. QuetaC · #88	25	13	6-9	—	1-1	+11	13	1
D. WhiteG · #9	37	10	3-15	1-10	3-3	0	6	7
J. BrownG · #7	35	14	6-24	1-6	1-2	+12	8	4
P. PritchardG · #11	31	21	8-17	4-7	1-1	+11	6	5
Bench
L. GarzaC · #52	23	8	3-4	—	2-2	+3	4	0
A. SimonsG · #4	27	27	9-16	8-14	1-2	+10	3	3
B. ScheiermanG · #55	11	3	1-2	1-2	—	+5	1	0
J. WalshG · #27	18	5	2-4	1-2	—	+7	5	0
H. GonzalezG · #28	12	5	1-5	1-4	2-2	+5	7	1
Team		115	42-104	20-52	11-13		54	22
DNP: C. Boucher, X. Tillman, J. Minott, A. Williams, M. Shulga

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

38-86

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-104

FG %

16-46

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

20-52

9-10

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

11-13

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

BOS leads series 1-0

Jan 6

CHI101@

BOS115today

Jan 25

BOS111@

CHI114

Feb 12

CHI105@

BOS124

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -10.5

Half-pt above key 10

Total

236.5

High-scoring · +10.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHI+35022%

BOS-45582%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -10.5↗SpreadBet BOS -10.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

10.5

0.0 since open

Total

236.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat CHI 115-101. A. Simons paced them with 27 PTS, 3 REB, 3 AST. BOS outscored the other side 31-14 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

BOS vs CHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHIstarters 63% of pts

Starters(5)

64 PTS · 29 REB · 14 AST

GS 53

Bench(7)

37 PTS · 14 REB · 9 AST

GS 24

BOSstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

67 PTS · 34 REB · 18 AST

GS 53

Bench(5)

48 PTS · 20 REB · 4 AST

GS 43

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHI1st Quarter · 3:53 · 11-20

+7pp→ 11% WP

Hugo Gonzalez · misses 1-foot tip shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHI	14	19	34	34	101
BOS	31	23	31	30	115

Period scoring

CHI won 2 · BOS won 2

Buzelis 7

Hauser 6

Huerter 6

Walsh 11

Dosunmu 8

Simons 12

Vucevic 13

Simons 15

CHI

BOS

Shooting comparison

CHI

BOS

44%

38-86

40%

42-104

35%

16-46

3PT

38%

20-52

90%

9-10

85%

11-13

Play-by-play · 458 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHI 101·BOS 115
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHI 101·BOS 115
Q4·16.6
shot clock turnover
CHI 101·BOS 115
Q4·37.7
Jordan Walsh defensive rebound
CHI 101·BOS 115
Q4·41.0
Derrick White blocks Patrick Williams 's 6-foot driving layup
· ·
CHI 101·BOS 115
Q4·55.4
Anfernee Simons makes 25-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)
·
CHI 101·BOS 115
Q4·1:10
Dalen Terry makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jevon Carter assists)
·
CHI 101·BOS 112
Q4·1:23
Lachlan Olbrich enters the game for Isaac Okoro
·
CHI 98·BOS 112
Q4·1:23
Patrick Williams enters the game for Ayo Dosunmu
· ·
CHI 98·BOS 112
Q4·1:23
Jevon Carter enters the game for Nikola Vucevic
·
CHI 98·BOS 112
Q4·1:23
Jordan Walsh enters the game for Jaylen Brown
·
CHI 98·BOS 112
Q4·1:23
Bulls Full timeout
CHI 98·BOS 112
Q4·1:28
Neemias Queta makes free throw 1 of 1
CHI 98·BOS 112
Q4·1:28
Dalen Terry enters the game for Coby White
· ·
CHI 98·BOS 111
Q4·1:28
Ayo Dosunmu shooting foul
CHI 98·BOS 111
Q4·1:28
Neemias Queta makes 2-foot two point shot (Jaylen Brown assists)
·
CHI 98·BOS 111
Q4·1:41
Neemias Queta defensive rebound
CHI 98·BOS 109
Q4·1:46
Isaac Okoro misses 23-foot three point jumper
CHI 98·BOS 109
Q4·1:55
Ayo Dosunmu defensive rebound
CHI 98·BOS 109
Q4·1:58
Derrick White misses 30-foot three point jumper
·
CHI 98·BOS 109
Q4·2:16
Jaylen Brown defensive rebound
CHI 98·BOS 109
Q4·2:18
Ayo Dosunmu misses 25-foot three point jumper
CHI 98·BOS 109
+0.6pp
Q4·2:32
Jaylen Brown offensive foul turnover
CHI 98·BOS 109
Q4·2:32
Jaylen Brown offensive foul
CHI 98·BOS 109
−0.5pp
Q4·2:42
Ayo Dosunmu makes running layup
CHI 98·BOS 109
Q4·2:45
Ayo Dosunmu defensive rebound
CHI 96·BOS 109
Q4·2:50
Derrick White misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
·
CHI 96·BOS 109
Q4·3:03
Coby White bad pass turnover (Derrick White steals)
·
CHI 96·BOS 109
Q4·3:14
Derrick White makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)
· ·
CHI 96·BOS 109
+1pp
Q4·3:34
Nikola Vucevic makes 29-foot three point jumper (Matas Buzelis assists)
·
CHI 96·BOS 106
−1pp

Betting line

BOS -10.5·O/U 236.5·CHI +350/BOS -455

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oston Celtics held off Chicago Bulls, 115–101.

BOS -10.5 cashed (won by 14). Total stayed UNDER 236.5 by 20.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197
Luka GarzaBOS · C
TS%68.296
Matas BuzelisCHI · F
CONT7.995
Tre JonesCHI · G
DRIVES12.995
Payton PritchardBOS · G
TOUCHES65.689

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHI

league avg

BOS

54.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.1%

46.9%

FG%

47.0

46.5%

116.3

PPG

◀

114.9

114.2

28.5

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.6

14.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR