NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1LAC

19-18

102103

LAC

13-22

NBAMon, Jan 5FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasGS -3.5

GS · top performer

Jimmy Butler III

F · #10

22.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAC · top performer

Kawhi Leonard

F · #2

15.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowGS ↔ LAC

Biggest swing: 26pp · 3rd Quarter · 1:54

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. Butler IIIF · #10	33	24	7-16	1-4	9-11	+3	6	2
D. GreenF · #23	32	6	2-8	0-6	2-2	+15	5	12
Q. PostC · #21	13	5	2-4	1-2	—	-5	2	0
S. CurryG · #30	34	27	9-23	4-15	5-5	+5	4	6
M. MoodyG · #4	19	4	1-5	0-3	2-2	+2	2	1
Bench
T. Jackson-DavisF · #32	5	0	0-1	—	—	-7	2	0
G. SantosF · #15	12	6	2-3	1-2	1-2	+13	2	1
A. HorfordC · #20	16	5	1-8	1-5	2-2	-14	5	0
G. Payton IIG · #0	15	14	7-10	—	0-1	-6	5	2
D. MeltonG · #8	25	5	2-7	1-2	—	-1	2	1
B. PodziemskiG · #2	27	6	2-5	1-1	1-2	-5	4	0
W. RichardG · #3	11	0	0-2	0-1	—	-5	1	2
Team		102	35-92	10-41	22-27		40	27
DNP: J. Kuminga, B. Hield, P. Spencer

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. LeonardF · #2	38	24	10-25	0-8	4-4	+8	12	5
J. CollinsF · #20	39	18	7-12	3-5	1-3	-8	4	1
I. ZubacC · #40	33	10	1-3	—	8-8	-7	11	3
K. DunnG · #8	33	16	5-7	2-3	4-4	-10	3	6
K. SandersG · #4	36	20	9-16	2-3	—	+7	7	3
Bench
N. BatumF · #33	24	6	2-4	2-4	—	-3	3	1
B. LopezC · #11	15	0	0-4	0-4	—	+8	3	3
J. MillerG · #22	22	9	3-6	1-2	2-2	+10	5	3
Team		103	37-77	10-29	19-21		48	25
DNP: Y. Niederhauser, K. Brown, T. Washington Jr., C. Christie

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

LAC

Home

35-92

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

37-77

FG %

10-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-29

22-27

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

19-21

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Oct 29

LAC79@

GS98

Jan 6

GS102@

LAC103today

Mar 3

LAC114@

GS101

Apr 13

GS110@

LAC115

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

GS -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

222.5

Standard · -3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

GS-16262%

LAC+13642%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet GS -3.5↗SpreadBet GS -3.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

222.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAC beat GS 103-102. K. Leonard led with 24 PTS, 12 REB, 5 AST. LAC outscored the other side 31-19 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAC vs GS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

GSstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

66 PTS · 19 REB · 21 AST

GS 63

Bench(7)

36 PTS · 21 REB · 6 AST

GS 29

LACstarters 85% of pts

Starters(5)

88 PTS · 37 REB · 18 AST

GS 65

Bench(3)

15 PTS · 11 REB · 7 AST

GS 15

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LAC3rd Quarter · 6:49 · 57-64

+16pp→ 76% WP

Gary Payton II · enters the game for Jimmy Butler III

LAC3rd Quarter · 1:54 · 62-73

+26pp→ 90% WP

De'Anthony Melton · misses driving layup

LAC4th Quarter · 3.5 · 102-103

+20pp→ 88% WP

Jimmy Butler III · misses 16-foot two point shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
GS	19	32	13	38	102
LAC	31	24	21	27	103

Period scoring

GS won 2 · LAC won 2

III 5

Leonard 10

Curry 12

Melton 20

Curry 5

Melton 16

III 10

Collins 10

LAC

Shooting comparison

LAC

38%

35-92

48%

37-77

24%

10-41

3PT

34%

10-29

81%

22-27

90%

19-21

Play-by-play · 478 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 102·LAC 103
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 102·LAC 103
+0.5pp
Q4·0.1
Warriors offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
GS 102·LAC 103
+11pp
Q4·3.5
Jimmy Butler III misses 16-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
GS 102·LAC 103
+20pp
Q4·6.9
Warriors Full timeout
GS 102·LAC 103
Q4·6.9
Warriors defensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
GS 102·LAC 103
+8pp
Q4·9.5
Kawhi Leonard misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
GS 102·LAC 103
−10pp
Q4·14.0
Clippers Full timeout
GS 102·LAC 103
+3pp
Q4·32.6
Draymond Green makes driving layup (Jimmy Butler III assists)BIG MOMENT
·
GS 102·LAC 103
−8pp
Q4·42.7
Draymond Green enters the game for Al Horford
·
GS 100·LAC 103
Q4·42.7
Al Horford enters the game for Draymond Green
·
GS 100·LAC 103
Q4·42.7
Warriors Full timeout
GS 100·LAC 103
Q4·42.7
Brandin Podziemski enters the game for Stephen Curry
·
GS 100·LAC 103
Q4·42.7
Kris Dunn makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
GS 100·LAC 103
−8pp
Q4·42.7
Nicolas Batum enters the game for John Collins
·
GS 100·LAC 102
Q4·42.7
Kris Dunn makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 100·LAC 102
+2pp
Q4·42.7
Stephen Curry personal foulBIG MOMENT
GS 100·LAC 101
+14pp
Q4·42.7
Ivica Zubac offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
GS 100·LAC 101
+9pp
Q4·43.5
Kobe Sanders misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
GS 100·LAC 101
−8pp
Q4·1:05
Clippers Full timeout
GS 100·LAC 101
Q4·1:05
Stephen Curry makes 25-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)BIG MOMENT
·
GS 100·LAC 101
−16pp
Q4·1:17
Gui Santos defensive rebound
GS 97·LAC 101
−2pp
Q4·1:21
John Collins misses 25-foot three point jumper
GS 97·LAC 101
−4pp
Q4·1:38
Stephen Curry makes 28-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)BIG MOMENT
·
GS 97·LAC 101
−7pp
Q4·1:48
Kris Dunn makes 12-foot floating jump shot (Kawhi Leonard assists)
·
GS 94·LAC 101
+3pp
Q4·2:00
Draymond Green makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 94·LAC 99
+4pp
Q4·2:00
Draymond Green makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 93·LAC 99
−1pp
Q4·2:00
Ivica Zubac shooting foulBIG MOMENT
GS 92·LAC 99
−5pp
Q4·2:13
John Collins makes 2-foot layup (Ivica Zubac assists)
·
GS 92·LAC 99
+4pp
Q4·2:35
Stephen Curry makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 92·LAC 97
+4pp

Betting line

GS -3.5·O/U 222.5·GS -162/LAC +136

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

A Clippers held off Golden State Warriors, 103–102. It came down to the final possession.

LAC +3.5 cashed (GS lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 222.5 by 17.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Kawhi LeonardTOR · F
USG%33.399
Ivica ZubacIND · C
CONT9.298
Stephen CurryGS · G
USG%31.597
Kris DunnLAC · G
DEFL3.697
Brook LopezLAC · C
CONT8.396

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · GS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAC vs GS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Stephen CurryGS
25.2± 8.3high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
20.4± 6.0high
Darius GarlandLAC
19.0± 5.5high

Rebounds

Kristaps PorzingisGS
5.6± 2.4high
Brook LopezLAC
5.5± 2.4high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
5.4± 1.6high

Assists

Draymond GreenGS
6.6± 3.0high
Darius GarlandLAC
6.3± 2.3high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
4.8± 1.7high

Blocks

Brook LopezLAC
1.3± 1.4high
Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC
1.3± 1.5high
Isaiah JacksonLAC
1.2± 0.8high

Steals

Kris DunnLAC
1.6± 1.1high
De'Anthony MeltonGS
1.5± 1.4high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
1.5± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

LAC

55.1%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.9%

46.2%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.5%

114.5

PPG

114.9

113.9

28.8

Assists / G

◀

25.0

23.8

15.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.6

Team pages

Golden State WarriorsLA Clippers

Elsewhere in the NBA

Data via ESPN · hoopR