NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+27CHA

CHA

13-23

12497

OKC

30-7

NBAMon, Jan 5FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasOKC -15.5

CHA · top performer

Brandon Miller

F · #24

22.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

OKC · top performer

Chet Holmgren

C · #7

13.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHA ↔ OKC

Biggest swing: 7pp · 2nd Quarter · 2:31

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	34	17	6-12	0-6	5-5	+18	11	4
M. DiabateF · #14	29	9	4-5	—	1-2	+21	12	5
B. MillerF · #24	31	28	8-16	7-10	5-5	+33	6	1
L. BallG · #1	25	16	5-10	4-7	2-2	+10	2	2
K. KnueppelG · #7	28	23	8-13	5-7	2-3	+15	5	5
Bench
T. SalaunF · #31	13	0	—	—	—	+12	6	0
P. HallC · #16	20	13	5-6	1-1	2-2	+6	5	1
P. ConnaughtonG · #21	3	0	—	—	—	0	0	1
C. SextonG · #8	23	10	3-9	0-2	4-4	+6	1	1
J. GreenG · #10	10	0	0-1	0-1	—	-7	1	0
T. MannG · #23	2	0	0-1	0-1	—	+3	0	0
S. JamesG · #4	20	5	1-3	1-1	2-2	+15	3	4
L. McNeeleyG · #33	2	3	1-1	1-1	—	+3	0	1
Team		124	41-77	19-37	23-25		52	25

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
C. HolmgrenC · #7	26	15	5-11	1-4	4-6	-25	6	2
S. Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #2	30	21	7-21	1-6	6-6	-20	2	6
L. DortG · #5	20	5	2-5	1-4	—	-20	4	0
A. WigginsG · #21	25	11	4-8	2-4	1-2	-26	2	0
Jal. WilliamsG · #8	28	16	6-14	1-3	3-5	-23	2	4
Bench
B. CarlsonC · #15	18	3	1-5	0-2	1-2	+4	4	0
K. WilliamsG · #34	17	8	3-6	2-3	0-2	-8	3	2
I. JoeG · #11	22	5	1-7	1-5	2-2	-13	4	1
C. WallaceG · #22	25	2	1-6	0-3	—	+4	2	1
C. YoungbloodG · #3	5	0	0-1	0-1	—	-3	1	0
A. MitchellG · #25	24	11	4-9	2-4	1-2	-5	3	2
Team		97	34-93	11-39	18-27		33	18
DNP: Jay. Williams

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHA

Away

Stat

OKC

Home

41-77

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

34-93

FG %

19-37

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-39

23-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-27

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 16

OKC109@

CHA96

Jan 6

CHA124@

OKC97today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OKC -15.5

Between 10 and —

Total

235.5

High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHA+67513%

OKC-105091%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OKC -15.5↗SpreadBet OKC -15.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

15.5

0.0 since open

Total

235.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHA beat OKC 124-97. B. Miller paced them with 28 PTS, 6 REB, 1 AST. CHA outscored the other side 34-17 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

OKC vs CHA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHAstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

93 PTS · 36 REB · 17 AST

GS 78

Bench(8)

31 PTS · 16 REB · 8 AST

GS 24

OKCstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

68 PTS · 16 REB · 12 AST

GS 48

Bench(6)

29 PTS · 17 REB · 6 AST

GS 27

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHA2nd Quarter · 5:51 · 48-40

+7pp→ 42% WP

Brandon Miller · makes 25-foot three pointer (Moussa Diabate assists)

CHA2nd Quarter · 5:19 · 51-40

+7pp→ 53% WP

Brandon Miller · makes 24-foot three point jumper

CHA2nd Quarter · 2:31 · 59-44

+7pp→ 72% WP

LaMelo Ball · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Moussa Diabate assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHA	33	34	32	25	124
OKC	33	17	21	26	97

Period scoring

CHA won 2 · OKC won 1

Knueppel 8

Mitchell 10

Ball 11

Holmgren 7

Miller 9

Gilgeous-Alexander 12

Hall 6

Wiggins 7

CHA

OKC

Shooting comparison

CHA

OKC

53%

41-77

37%

34-93

51%

19-37

3PT

28%

11-39

92%

23-25

67%

18-27

Play-by-play · 488 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHA 124·OKC 97
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHA 124·OKC 97
Q4·16.7
Liam McNeeley makes 26-foot three point jumper (PJ Hall assists)
·
CHA 124·OKC 97
Q4·37.7
Tidjane Salaun defensive rebound
CHA 121·OKC 97
Q4·41.0
Chris Youngblood misses 26-foot three point jumper
CHA 121·OKC 97
Q4·42.7
Chris Youngblood offensive rebound
CHA 121·OKC 97
Q4·45.8
Kenrich Williams misses 25-foot three point jumper
· ·
CHA 121·OKC 97
Q4·57.1
Isaiah Joe defensive rebound
CHA 121·OKC 97
Q4·1:00
Tre Mann misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
CHA 121·OKC 97
Q4·1:18
PJ Hall defensive rebound
CHA 121·OKC 97
Q4·1:21
Kenrich Williams misses 7-foot fade away jump shot
· ·
CHA 121·OKC 97
Q4·1:32
PJ Hall makes 1-foot driving dunk (Liam McNeeley assists)
·
CHA 121·OKC 97
Q4·1:49
Aaron Wiggins makes driving layup (Kenrich Williams assists)
· ·
CHA 119·OKC 97
Q4·2:00
Tre Mann enters the game for Collin Sexton
·
CHA 119·OKC 95
Q4·2:00
Liam McNeeley enters the game for Kon Knueppel
·
CHA 119·OKC 95
Q4·2:00
Tidjane Salaun enters the game for Sion James
·
CHA 119·OKC 95
Q4·2:00
Thunder defensive team rebound
CHA 119·OKC 95
Q4·2:00
Collin Sexton misses driving layup
CHA 119·OKC 95
Q4·2:23
Aaron Wiggins makes 23-foot running jump shot (Kenrich Williams assists)
· ·
CHA 119·OKC 95
Q4·2:29
Sion James lost ball turnover (Chris Youngblood steals)
· ·
CHA 119·OKC 92
Q4·2:45
PJ Hall defensive rebound
CHA 119·OKC 92
Q4·2:47
Isaiah Joe misses layup
CHA 119·OKC 92
Q4·3:03
PJ Hall makes dunk (Pat Connaughton assists)
·
CHA 119·OKC 92
Q4·3:18
Isaiah Joe makes free throw 2 of 2
CHA 117·OKC 92
Q4·3:18
Isaiah Joe makes free throw 1 of 2
CHA 117·OKC 91
Q4·3:18
Kon Knueppel personal foul
CHA 117·OKC 90
Q4·3:22
Pat Connaughton enters the game for Miles Bridges
·
CHA 117·OKC 90
Q4·3:22
Thunder Full timeout
CHA 117·OKC 90
Q4·3:22
Collin Sexton makes running layup (Kon Knueppel assists)
·
CHA 117·OKC 90
Q4·3:25
Kon Knueppel defensive rebound
CHA 115·OKC 90

Betting line

OKC -15.5·O/U 235.5·CHA +675/OKC -1050

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

harlotte Hornets went into Oklahoma City Thunder and beat them, 124–97. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

CHA +15.5 cashed (OKC lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 235.5 by 14.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Chet HolmgrenOKC · C
CONT10.799+
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · G
DRIVES18.399
LaMelo BallMIN · G
USG%31.397
Moussa DiabateCHA · F
CONT7.794
Jalen WilliamsOKC · G
DRIVES12.594

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHA

league avg

OKC

55.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.9%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.2%

115.8

PPG

114.9

▶

118.5

26.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.8

14.4

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.9

Data via ESPN · hoopR