NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+18TOR

ATL

17-21

100118

TOR

22-15

NBAMon, Jan 5FinalSeriesTOR wins series 4-0VegasTOR -2.5

ATL · top performer

Onyeka Okongwu

F · #17

19.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

TOR · top performer

Collin Murray-Boyles

F · #12

23.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowATL ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 8pp · 2nd Quarter · 7:41

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. OkongwuF · #17	36	17	7-13	2-3	1-2	-4	12	3
J. JohnsonF · #1	37	13	5-15	0-4	3-4	-27	14	7
Z. RisacherF · #10	22	16	7-11	2-5	—	-10	4	4
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	34	14	4-14	2-6	4-4	-8	5	4
D. DanielsG · #5	39	11	4-13	0-2	3-4	-24	6	3
Bench
M. GueyeF · #18	3	0	—	—	—	-5	2	0
K. PorzingisC · #8	20	9	2-12	1-5	4-4	0	1	1
L. KennardG · #3	22	10	3-5	3-4	1-1	-1	0	4
V. KrejciG · #27	27	10	3-6	2-5	2-2	-11	2	2
Team		100	35-89	12-34	18-21		46	28
DNP: A. Newell, K. Wallace, C. Houstan

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	35	19	8-14	3-5	—	+22	9	3
R. BarrettF · #9	31	17	7-17	2-8	1-5	+21	6	4
S. BarnesF · #4	37	18	8-16	0-3	2-2	+7	8	10
C. Murray-BoylesF · #12	31	17	8-10	0-1	1-2	+24	7	7
I. QuickleyG · #5	31	16	5-11	3-7	3-4	+8	3	1
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	23	12	4-9	1-4	3-3	-1	6	3
O. AgbajiG · #30	6	0	0-1	0-1	—	+6	1	1
J. SheadG · #23	17	5	2-3	1-2	—	+10	2	5
J. WalterG · #14	12	3	1-5	0-4	1-2	-9	1	0
G. DickG · #1	18	11	4-4	2-2	1-1	+2	3	0
Team		118	47-90	12-37	12-19		46	34
DNP: J. Battle, J. Mogbo, M. Bamba, G. Temple, A.J. Lawson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

35-89

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

47-90

FG %

12-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-37

18-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

12-19

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

TOR wins series 4-0

Oct 22

TOR138@

ATL118

Nov 8

TOR109@

ATL97

Jan 4

ATL117@

TOR134

Jan 6

ATL100@

TOR118today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

237.5

High-scoring · +11.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATL+11447%

TOR-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -2.5↗SpreadBet TOR -2.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

237.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat ATL 118-100. C. Murray-Boyles led with 17 PTS, 7 REB, 7 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

TOR vs ATL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ATLstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

71 PTS · 41 REB · 21 AST

GS 53

Bench(4)

29 PTS · 5 REB · 7 AST

GS 24

TORstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

87 PTS · 33 REB · 25 AST

GS 77

Bench(5)

31 PTS · 13 REB · 9 AST

GS 29

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ATL1st Quarter · 7:37 · 6-15

+8pp→ 25% WP

Jalen Johnson · makes tip shot

ATL2nd Quarter · 7:41 · 36-39

+8pp→ 39% WP

Nickeil Alexander-Walker · makes 26-foot running jump shot (Luke Kennard assists)

TOR2nd Quarter · 6:06 · 36-45

+8pp→ 76% WP

Brandon Ingram · makes 1-foot two point shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ATL	26	23	24	27	100
TOR	31	30	25	32	118

Period scoring

ATL won 0 · TOR won 4

Porzingis 5

Barnes 9

Johnson 9

Dick 9

Risacher 9

Barnes 6

Daniels 8

Barrett 12

ATL

TOR

Shooting comparison

ATL

TOR

39%

35-89

52%

47-90

35%

12-34

3PT

32%

12-37

86%

18-21

63%

12-19

Play-by-play · 479 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 100·TOR 118
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 100·TOR 118
Q4·12.7
shot clock turnover
ATL 100·TOR 118
Q4·36.6
RJ Barrett defensive rebound
ATL 100·TOR 118
Q4·39.8
Dyson Daniels misses 29-foot three point jumper
ATL 100·TOR 118
Q4·49.2
Brandon Ingram makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)
·
ATL 100·TOR 118
Q4·1:06
Scottie Barnes defensive rebound
ATL 100·TOR 115
Q4·1:09
Jalen Johnson misses 29-foot three point shot
ATL 100·TOR 115
Q4·1:17
Collin Murray-Boyles makes 1-foot layup (Scottie Barnes assists)
·
ATL 100·TOR 115
Q4·1:23
Collin Murray-Boyles defensive rebound
ATL 100·TOR 113
Q4·1:25
Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses two point shot
ATL 100·TOR 113
Q4·1:34
RJ Barrett makes layup (Scottie Barnes assists)
·
ATL 100·TOR 113
Q4·1:41
Vit Krejci personal foul
ATL 100·TOR 111
Q4·1:42
Onyeka Okongwu makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)
·
ATL 100·TOR 111
Q4·1:43
Dyson Daniels offensive rebound
ATL 97·TOR 111
Q4·1:45
Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses two point shot
ATL 97·TOR 111
Q4·1:53
RJ Barrett makes 1-foot layup (Jamal Shead assists)
·
ATL 97·TOR 111
Q4·2:02
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 97·TOR 109
Q4·2:02
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 96·TOR 109
Q4·2:02
Jamal Shead shooting foul
ATL 95·TOR 109
Q4·2:17
RJ Barrett makes 24-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)
·
ATL 95·TOR 109
Q4·2:24
Brandon Ingram offensive rebound
ATL 95·TOR 106
Q4·2:26
RJ Barrett misses 24-foot running jump shot
ATL 95·TOR 106
Q4·2:31
Brandon Ingram defensive rebound
ATL 95·TOR 106
Q4·2:34
Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses two point shot
ATL 95·TOR 106
+0.5pp
Q4·2:44
Brandon Ingram makes 24-foot three point jumper (Collin Murray-Boyles assists)
·
ATL 95·TOR 106
+2pp
Q4·3:03
Collin Murray-Boyles defensive rebound
ATL 95·TOR 103
+0.6pp
Q4·3:06
Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses 27-foot three point jumper
ATL 95·TOR 103
+2pp
Q4·3:23
Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
ATL 95·TOR 103
−0.5pp
Q4·3:26
Brandon Ingram misses 27-foot three point jumper
ATL 95·TOR 103
−1pp

Betting line

TOR -2.5·O/U 237.5·ATL +114/TOR -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oronto Raptors held off Atlanta Hawks, 118–100.

TOR -2.5 cashed (won by 18). Total stayed UNDER 237.5 by 19.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.299
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.299
RJ BarrettTOR · F
DRIVES16.498
Kristaps PorzingisGS · C
CONT9.498

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ATL

league avg

TOR

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

54.5%

47.2%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.1%

117.2

PPG

◀

114.9

114.3

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

29.2

13.4

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR