PHX
21-15
HOU
22-11
PHX · top performer
Royce O'Neale
F · #00
15
Pts
6
Reb
3
Ast
HOU · top performer
Kevin Durant
F · #7
26
Pts
10
Reb
4
Ast
Biggest swing: 52pp · 4th Quarter · 1.1
NBA · Phoenix Suns at Houston Rockets · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 31 | 15 | 5-12 | 5-12 | — | +2 | 6 | 3 | |
| 34 | 15 | 7-15 | 1-6 | — | -5 | 4 | 2 | |
| 21 | 4 | 2-6 | — | — | 0 | 8 | 1 | |
| 33 | 27 | 9-20 | 2-5 | 7-8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 25 | 11 | 4-11 | 3-9 | — | -1 | 6 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 27 | 9 | 4-5 | — | 1-2 | -3 | 8 | 2 | |
| 17 | 5 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | -3 | 1 | 0 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0-3 | — | — | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| 22 | 0 | 0-6 | 0-4 | — | -8 | 3 | 6 | |
| 25 | 11 | 4-7 | 3-4 | — | +3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Team | 97 | 37-88 | 14-41 | 9-12 | 40 | 23 | ||
| DNP: N. Hayes-Davis, I. Livers, N. Richards, K. Maluach | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 39 | 26 | 9-21 | 2-12 | 6-6 | +4 | 10 | 4 | |
| 38 | 17 | 6-11 | 3-8 | 2-4 | +5 | 7 | 3 | |
| 30 | 12 | 5-15 | 2-6 | — | +4 | 8 | 2 | |
| 31 | 8 | 4-7 | — | 0-4 | +7 | 11 | 2 | |
| 37 | 17 | 5-13 | — | 7-7 | -7 | 7 | 6 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 14 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-4 | — | -2 | 4 | 1 | |
| 9 | 2 | 1-2 | — | — | -2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 10 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-1 | — | -6 | 0 | 0 | |
| 9 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | — | +4 | 0 | 0 | |
| 23 | 11 | 5-9 | 1-4 | — | +8 | 3 | 2 | |
| Team | 100 | 38-87 | 9-37 | 15-21 | 51 | 20 | ||
| DNP: J. Green, J. Tate, I. Crawford | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
42
FG %
44
23
Ast
20
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
HOU
Home
37-88
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
38-87
42
FG %
44
14-41
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-37
9-12
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
15-21
23
Assists
20
10
Turnovers
14
Season series
HOU leads series 3-0
HOU114@PHX92PHX98@HOU117PHX97@HOU100todayHOU119@PHX105Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
HOU -8.5
Between 7 and 10
Total
222.5
Standard · -3.5 vs avg
Moneyline
PHX+24529%HOU-30575%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
8.5
0.0 since open
Total
222.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
HOU beat PHX 100-97. K. Durant paced them with 26 PTS, 10 REB, 4 AST. Kevin Durant's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (52pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
HOU vs PHX
Starters vs bench
production by unitPHXstarters 74% of ptsStarters(5)
72 PTS · 24 REB · 13 AST
GS 50
Bench(5)
25 PTS · 16 REB · 10 AST
GS 27
HOUstarters 80% of ptsStarters(5)
80 PTS · 43 REB · 17 AST
GS 64
Bench(5)
20 PTS · 8 REB · 3 AST
GS 11
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactAmen Thompson · personal foul
Oso Ighodaro · shooting foul
Kevin Durant · makes 27-foot three pointer (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 29 | 31 | 18 | 19 | 97 |
| HOU | 25 | 29 | 24 | 22 | 100 |
Period scoring
PHX won 2 · HOU won 2
Q1
Goodwin 11
Eason 5
Q2
Ighodaro 9
Durant 8
Q3
Brooks 7
Adams 22
Q4
Booker 12
Durant 7
Shooting comparison
42%
37-88
FG
44%
38-87
34%
14-41
3PT
24%
9-37
75%
9-12
FT
71%
15-21
Play-by-play · 454 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 97·HOU 100
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 97·HOU 100
+2pp
- Q4·1.1
Collin Gillespie enters the game for Oso Ighodaro
·
PHX 97·HOU 100
- Q4·1.1
Josh Okogie enters the game for Steven Adams
·
PHX 97·HOU 100
- Q4·1.1
Suns Full timeout
PHX 97·HOU 100
- Q4·1.1
Kevin Durant makes 27-foot three pointer (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)BIG MOMENT
·
PHX 97·HOU 100
+52pp
- Q4·5.1
Steven Adams enters the game for Josh Okogie
·
PHX 97·HOU 97
- Q4·5.1
Rockets Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
PHX 97·HOU 97
−7pp
- Q4·5.1
shot clock turnover BIG MOMENT
PHX 97·HOU 97
+5pp
- Q4·5.1
Suns offensive team rebound
PHX 97·HOU 97
−4pp
- Q4·5.1
Devin Booker misses 20-foot fade away jump shotBIG MOMENT
PHX 97·HOU 97
+6pp
- Q4·29.0
Josh Okogie enters the game for Steven Adams
·
PHX 97·HOU 97
- Q4·29.0
Suns Full timeout
PHX 97·HOU 97
- Q4·29.0
Royce O'Neale defensive rebound
PHX 97·HOU 97
−2pp
- Q4·29.8
Tari Eason misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
PHX 97·HOU 97
−7pp
- Q4·40.0
Amen Thompson offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
PHX 97·HOU 97
+7pp
- Q4·40.4
Amen Thompson misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
PHX 97·HOU 97
−7pp
- Q4·55.7
shot clock turnover BIG MOMENT
PHX 97·HOU 97
+8pp
- Q4·55.7
Suns offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
PHX 97·HOU 97
−6pp
- Q4·55.7
Royce O'Neale misses 26-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
PHX 97·HOU 97
+6pp
- Q4·1:18
Dillon Brooks defensive rebound
PHX 97·HOU 97
−2pp
- Q4·1:19
Steven Adams misses tip shotBIG MOMENT
PHX 97·HOU 97
−7pp
- Q4·1:20
Steven Adams offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
PHX 97·HOU 97
+7pp
- Q4·1:20
Amen Thompson misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
PHX 97·HOU 97
−7pp
- Q4·1:42
Tari Eason defensive rebound
PHX 97·HOU 97
+2pp
- Q4·1:43
Devin Booker misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
PHX 97·HOU 97
+7pp
- Q4·1:59
Amen Thompson makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
PHX 97·HOU 97
−7pp
- Q4·1:59
Oso Ighodaro shooting foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 97·HOU 96
+19pp
- Q4·1:59
Amen Thompson makes 2-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
PHX 97·HOU 96
+9pp
- Q4·2:12
Devin Booker makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
PHX 97·HOU 94
+6pp
Betting line
HOU -8.5·O/U 222.5·PHX +245/HOU -305
Recap · NBA
ouston Rockets held off Phoenix Suns, 100–97. Decided by 3.
PHX +8.5 cashed (HOU won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 222.5 by 25.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 14 players in cohort
Tari EasonHOU · FDEFL4.599+
Amen ThompsonHOU · GTOUCHES86.298
Devin BookerPHX · GUSG%31.397
Mark WilliamsPHX · CCONT8.496
Dillon BrooksPHX · FUSG%28.694
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
HOU vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
170
projections · 145 high confidence
Points
- Kevin DurantHOU25.3± 4.5high
- Devin BookerPHX24.6± 6.2high
- Jalen GreenPHX21.0± 10.3high
Rebounds
- Alperen SengunHOU9.4± 3.5high
- Steven AdamsHOU8.6± 2.2high
- Jabari Smith Jr.HOU7.4± 2.5high
Assists
- Kevin DurantHOU5.8± 2.2high
- Devin BookerPHX5.8± 2.3high
- Amen ThompsonHOU5.7± 2.0high
Blocks
- Alperen SengunHOU1.1± 0.7high
- Kevin DurantHOU1.0± 1.1high
- Jabari Smith Jr.HOU0.8± 0.8high
Steals
- Marcus SmartHOU2.1± 1.8high
- Amen ThompsonHOU1.9± 1.3high
- Tari EasonHOU1.8± 1.8high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
PHX
league avg
HOU
53.7%
Effective FG%
54.4
53.7%
45.5%
FG%
47.0
▶47.4%
112.2
PPG
114.9
▶114.1
24.5
Assists / G
25.0
▶25.1
13.6
Turnovers / G
14.0
14.3