NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+14BOS

BOS

21-12

120106

SAC

8-26

NBAThu, Jan 1FinalSeriesBOS leads series 1-0VegasBOS -10.5

BOS · top performer

Derrick White

G · #9

17.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SAC · top performer

DeMar DeRozan

G · #10

23.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowBOS ↔ SAC

Biggest swing: 11pp · 4th Quarter · 6:57

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. QuetaC · #88	23	13	5-6	—	3-5	-2	5	0
D. WhiteG · #9	35	16	5-13	2-7	4-4	+14	5	7
J. BrownG · #7	35	29	11-25	1-9	6-7	-2	10	4
P. PritchardG · #11	31	16	6-13	2-8	2-2	+4	3	6
J. WalshG · #27	5	0	0-1	—	—	-5	1	0
Bench
S. HauserF · #30	29	15	5-7	5-7	—	+15	5	1
L. GarzaC · #52	25	11	5-6	1-1	—	+16	3	2
A. SimonsG · #4	30	14	5-13	4-7	—	+12	2	4
B. ScheiermanG · #55	9	3	1-1	1-1	—	-2	0	0
H. GonzalezG · #28	19	3	1-2	1-1	—	+20	6	1
Team		120	44-87	17-41	15-18		40	25
DNP: C. Boucher, X. Tillman, J. Minott

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	22	14	5-9	2-4	2-2	-7	3	2
K. MurrayF · #13	38	7	3-13	1-4	—	-7	6	4
M. RaynaudC · #42	35	12	5-8	—	2-2	-4	8	1
R. WestbrookG · #18	27	10	3-11	2-9	2-2	-14	3	6
D. DeRozanG · #10	35	25	9-16	1-3	6-6	-13	5	6
Bench
D. EubanksF · #19	7	4	2-2	—	—	-4	1	0
D. SchroderG · #17	28	18	7-12	3-8	1-1	-5	3	7
M. MonkG · #0	6	0	0-2	0-1	—	-2	0	1
K. EllisG · #23	27	16	6-10	3-6	1-2	-6	1	1
N. CliffordG · #5	16	0	0-2	0-1	—	-8	2	1
Team		106	40-85	12-36	14-15		32	29
DNP: D. McDermott, D. Saric, D. Carter

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

SAC

Home

44-87

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-85

FG %

17-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-36

15-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-15

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

BOS leads series 1-0

Jan 2

BOS120@

SAC106today

Jan 31

SAC93@

BOS112

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -10.5

Half-pt above key 10

Total

229.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BOS-44081%

SAC+34023%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -10.5↗SpreadBet BOS -10.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

10.5

0.0 since open

Total

229.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat SAC 120-106. D. White led with 16 PTS, 5 REB, 7 AST. BOS outscored the other side 32-18 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SAC vs BOS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

BOSstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

74 PTS · 24 REB · 17 AST

GS 59

Bench(5)

46 PTS · 16 REB · 8 AST

GS 43

SACstarters 64% of pts

Starters(5)

68 PTS · 25 REB · 19 AST

GS 57

Bench(5)

38 PTS · 7 REB · 10 AST

GS 31

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

BOS4th Quarter · 11:44 · 88-88

+11pp→ 68% WP

Dennis Schroder · shooting foul

BOS4th Quarter · 10:45 · 93-90

+9pp→ 69% WP

Derrick White · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Hugo Gonzalez assists)

BOS4th Quarter · 6:57 · 102-98

+11pp→ 86% WP

Maxime Raynaud · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
BOS	28	34	26	32	120
SAC	29	32	27	18	106

Period scoring

BOS won 2 · SAC won 2

Pritchard 7

Achiuwa 8

Simons 11

Ellis 8

Brown 11

Schroder 7

White 14

DeRozan 8

BOS

SAC

Shooting comparison

BOS

SAC

51%

44-87

47%

40-85

41%

17-41

3PT

33%

12-36

83%

15-18

93%

14-15

Play-by-play · 418 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
BOS 120·SAC 106
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BOS 120·SAC 106
Q4·19.3
shot clock turnover
BOS 120·SAC 106
Q4·41.5
Sam Hauser defensive rebound
BOS 120·SAC 106
Q4·44.7
DeMar DeRozan misses 28-foot three point jumper
BOS 120·SAC 106
Q4·53.2
Neemias Queta makes 3-foot dunk (Payton Pritchard assists)
·
BOS 120·SAC 106
Q4·1:14
Neemias Queta defensive rebound
BOS 118·SAC 106
Q4·1:17
Dennis Schroder misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot
BOS 118·SAC 106
Q4·1:23
Neemias Queta makes free throw 2 of 2
BOS 118·SAC 106
Q4·1:23
Celtics offensive team rebound
BOS 117·SAC 106
Q4·1:23
Neemias Queta misses free throw 1 of 2
BOS 117·SAC 106
Q4·1:23
Russell Westbrook loose ball foul
BOS 117·SAC 106
Q4·1:23
Celtics offensive team rebound
BOS 117·SAC 106
Q4·1:24
Payton Pritchard misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
BOS 117·SAC 106
Q4·1:41
Payton Pritchard defensive rebound
BOS 117·SAC 106
Q4·1:46
Russell Westbrook misses 26-foot three point jumper
BOS 117·SAC 106
Q4·1:53
Payton Pritchard makes 11-foot pullup jump shot
BOS 117·SAC 106
−0.7pp
Q4·2:09
DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 2 of 2
BOS 115·SAC 106
−0.9pp
Q4·2:09
Neemias Queta enters the game for Luka Garza
·
BOS 115·SAC 105
+2pp
Q4·2:09
DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 1 of 2
BOS 115·SAC 105
+2pp
Q4·2:09
Hugo Gonzalez enters the game for Jaylen Brown
·
BOS 115·SAC 104
Q4·2:09
Keon Ellis enters the game for Maxime Raynaud
·
BOS 115·SAC 104
Q4·2:09
(02:09) [Celtics] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Celtics] charged with a timeout
BOS 115·SAC 104
Q4·2:09
Celtics Full timeout
BOS 115·SAC 104
−1pp
Q4·2:09
Jaylen Brown personal foul
BOS 115·SAC 104
+1pp
Q4·2:11
Keegan Murray defensive rebound
BOS 115·SAC 104
Q4·2:13
Derrick White misses driving layup
BOS 115·SAC 104
Q4·2:39
Maxime Raynaud makes 12-foot floating jump shot (DeMar DeRozan assists)
·
BOS 115·SAC 104
Q4·2:52
Jaylen Brown makes free throw 2 of 2
BOS 115·SAC 102
Q4·2:52
Celtics offensive team rebound
BOS 114·SAC 102

Betting line

BOS -10.5·O/U 229.5·BOS -440/SAC +340

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oston Celtics went into Sacramento Kings and beat them, 120–106.

BOS -10.5 cashed (won by 14). Total stayed UNDER 229.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197
Luka GarzaBOS · C
TS%68.296
Keegan MurraySAC · F
CONT7.894
Maxime RaynaudSAC · C
CONT7.593
Russell WestbrookSAC · G
DRIVES11.692

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

BOS

league avg

SAC

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.5%

46.5%

FG%

47.0

46.7%

114.2

PPG

◀

114.9

111.0

24.6

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.5

11.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR