NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+15PHI

PHI

18-14

123108

DAL

12-23

NBAThu, Jan 1FinalSeriesPHI wins series 2-0VegasPHI -2.5

PHI · top performer

Tyrese Maxey

G · #0

32.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DAL · top performer

P.J. Washington

F · #25

12.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHI ↔ DAL

Biggest swing: 10pp · 4th Quarter · 11:01

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. GeorgeF · #8	33	14	5-11	0-3	4-4	+20	7	2
D. BarlowF · #25	18	5	1-3	1-2	2-2	-5	1	0
J. EmbiidC · #21	35	22	9-18	0-3	4-5	+9	4	6
T. MaxeyG · #0	42	34	14-24	4-10	2-2	+18	8	10
V. EdgecombeG · #77	40	23	9-14	3-6	2-3	+3	5	2
Bench
J. WalkerF · #33	5	0	0-2	0-2	—	-4	0	0
A. DrummondC · #1	7	2	1-2	0-1	—	-1	4	0
A. BonaC · #30	7	2	1-2	—	—	+7	4	0
Q. GrimesG · #5	38	19	7-9	5-7	—	+19	7	2
J. McCainG · #20	14	2	1-5	0-2	—	+9	3	0
Team		123	48-90	13-36	14-16		43	22
DNP: J. Edwards, K. Lowry, E. Gordon

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. DavisF · #3	37	13	6-13	0-1	1-2	-14	8	2
P.J. WashingtonF · #25	34	11	3-6	1-4	4-5	-22	5	1
C. FlaggF · #32	37	12	5-15	0-2	2-2	-1	7	7
M. ChristieG · #00	29	18	7-13	2-7	2-2	-7	1	2
R. NembhardG · #9	22	9	4-7	1-2	—	-5	2	3
Bench
C. MartinF · #16	4	0	—	—	—	-11	0	0
D. GaffordF · #21	11	8	3-5	—	2-2	-1	5	0
N. MarshallF · #13	22	9	4-7	—	1-1	+2	1	1
K. ThompsonG · #31	13	9	4-9	1-5	—	-12	2	1
B. WilliamsG · #10	24	14	5-15	0-3	4-4	-10	7	5
J. HardyG · #1	7	5	1-4	1-4	2-2	+6	1	1
Team		108	42-94	6-28	18-20		39	23
DNP: D. Powell

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

48-90

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-94

FG %

13-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

6-28

14-16

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-20

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

PHI wins series 2-0

Dec 21

DAL114@

PHI121

Jan 2

PHI123@

DAL108today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

231.5

Standard · +5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI-13557%

DAL+11447%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -2.5↗SpreadBet PHI -2.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

231.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat DAL 123-108. T. Maxey paced them with 34 PTS, 8 REB, 10 AST. PHI outscored the other side 41-24 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DAL vs PHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHIstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

98 PTS · 25 REB · 20 AST

GS 83

Bench(5)

25 PTS · 18 REB · 2 AST

GS 23

DALstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

63 PTS · 23 REB · 15 AST

GS 46

Bench(6)

45 PTS · 16 REB · 8 AST

GS 35

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHI2nd Quarter · 10:49 · 31-35

+7pp→ 44% WP

Daniel Gafford · shooting foul

DAL4th Quarter · 11:01 · 94-89

+10pp→ 34% WP

Dominick Barlow · shooting foul

PHI4th Quarter · 7:06 · 105-96

+7pp→ 90% WP

Quentin Grimes · makes 26-foot three point jumper (VJ Edgecombe assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHI	27	41	24	31	123
DAL	33	24	26	25	108

Period scoring

PHI won 2 · DAL won 2

Embiid 7

Flagg 8

Maxey 9

Davis 5

Maxey 7

Hardy 5

Maxey 11

Williams 8

PHI

DAL

Shooting comparison

PHI

DAL

53%

48-90

45%

42-94

36%

13-36

3PT

21%

6-28

88%

14-16

90%

18-20

Play-by-play · 443 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHI 123·DAL 108
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHI 123·DAL 108
Q4·7.8
shot clock turnover
PHI 123·DAL 108
Q4·30.4
Quentin Grimes defensive rebound
PHI 123·DAL 108
Q4·33.6
Brandon Williams misses 26-foot three point jumper
PHI 123·DAL 108
Q4·44.0
VJ Edgecombe makes 29-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)
·
PHI 123·DAL 108
Q4·1:02
VJ Edgecombe defensive rebound
PHI 120·DAL 108
Q4·1:04
Cooper Flagg misses 22-foot three point jumper
PHI 120·DAL 108
Q4·1:13
Tyrese Maxey makes 13-foot fade away jump shot
PHI 120·DAL 108
Q4·1:32
Max Christie traveling turnover
PHI 118·DAL 108
−0.5pp
Q4·1:36
VJ Edgecombe vs. Max Christie (P.J. Washington gains possession)
· ·
PHI 118·DAL 108
Q4·1:49
Quentin Grimes makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)
·
PHI 118·DAL 108
−3pp
Q4·2:04
Paul George defensive rebound
PHI 115·DAL 108
−0.8pp
Q4·2:09
Anthony Davis misses 25-foot three point jumper
PHI 115·DAL 108
−2pp
Q4·2:19
Mavericks offensive team rebound
PHI 115·DAL 108
+2pp
Q4·2:20
VJ Edgecombe blocks Brandon Williams 's 1-foot running layup
·
PHI 115·DAL 108
−2pp
Q4·2:23
Paul George lost ball turnover (Anthony Davis steals)
·
PHI 115·DAL 108
+2pp
Q4·2:48
Anthony Davis makes 1-foot dunk (Brandon Williams assists)
·
PHI 115·DAL 108
+1pp
Q4·3:01
P.J. Washington defensive rebound
PHI 115·DAL 106
Q4·3:04
Joel Embiid misses 15-foot jumper
PHI 115·DAL 106
+3pp
Q4·3:23
Joel Embiid enters the game for Adem Bona
·
PHI 115·DAL 106
+0.6pp
Q4·3:23
76ers Full timeout
PHI 115·DAL 106
−2pp
Q4·3:23
Brandon Williams makes running layup (Cooper Flagg assists)
·
PHI 115·DAL 106
+1pp
Q4·3:29
Anthony Davis defensive rebound
PHI 115·DAL 104
Q4·3:29
Tyrese Maxey misses two point shot
PHI 115·DAL 104
Q4·3:46
Max Christie makes 26-foot three point jumper (P.J. Washington assists)
·
PHI 115·DAL 104
+1pp
Q4·3:49
Tyrese Maxey bad pass turnover (P.J. Washington steals)
·
PHI 115·DAL 101
−0.6pp
Q4·3:51
Tyrese Maxey defensive rebound
PHI 115·DAL 101
Q4·3:54
Max Christie misses 21-foot step back jumpshot
PHI 115·DAL 101
Q4·4:17
Tyrese Maxey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Quentin Grimes assists)
·
PHI 115·DAL 101
−1pp

Betting line

PHI -2.5·O/U 231.5·PHI -135/DAL +114

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hiladelphia 76ers went into Dallas Mavericks and beat them, 123–108.

PHI -2.5 cashed (won by 15). Total stayed UNDER 231.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Tyrese MaxeyPHI · G
TOUCHES94.599
Joel EmbiidPHI · C
USG%34.399
Anthony DavisWSH · F
CONT9.799
Daniel GaffordDAL · F
TS%67.796
Cooper FlaggDAL · F
DRIVES12.894

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DAL vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 125 high confidence

Points

Jaylen BrownPHI
26.6± 6.3high
Joel EmbiidPHI
25.3± 7.2high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
25.0± 6.5high

Rebounds

Joel EmbiidPHI
8.0± 3.5high
Daniel GaffordDAL
7.8± 3.6high
Moussa CisseDAL
7.8± 4.7high

Assists

Ryan NembhardDAL
6.2± 5.9high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
5.9± 1.9high
Joel EmbiidPHI
4.6± 2.6high

Blocks

Dereck Lively IIDAL
1.6± 1.3low
Joel EmbiidPHI
1.3± 1.4high
Moussa CisseDAL
1.2± 1.2high

Steals

Cooper FlaggDAL
1.4± 1.4high
Kyrie IrvingDAL
1.4± 1.1high
Naji MarshallDAL
1.4± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHI

league avg

DAL

52.9%

Effective FG%

54.4

52.7%

46.0%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.6%

114.3

PPG

114.9

114.1

24.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.3

12.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR