NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6MIA

MIA

19-15

118112

DET

25-9

NBAThu, Jan 1FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasDET -4.5

MIA · top performer

Norman Powell

G · #24

24.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DET · top performer

Cade Cunningham

G · #2

28.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIA ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 26pp · 1st Quarter · 3:21

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. WigginsF · #22	32	17	7-20	1-5	2-2	-9	8	1
B. AdebayoC · #13	33	15	5-14	1-2	4-4	+17	14	0
K. WareC · #7	27	4	1-6	0-4	2-2	0	13	0
N. PowellG · #24	35	36	12-23	7-14	5-5	+4	2	2
D. MitchellG · #45	33	8	3-7	2-3	—	+3	1	11
Bench
S. FontecchioF · #0	6	5	2-3	1-1	—	+4	3	0
J. Jaquez Jr.F · #11	30	19	9-12	0-1	1-3	+2	3	5
N. JovicF · #5	24	5	1-10	1-7	2-2	-5	5	5
D. SmithG · #12	15	9	3-4	1-2	2-2	+3	0	1
K. JakucionisG · #25	6	0	—	—	—	+11	0	0
Team		118	43-99	14-39	18-20		49	25
DNP: M. Gardner, K. Johnson

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. RobinsonF · #55	20	9	3-7	1-5	2-2	-10	2	2
I. StewartF · #28	30	6	2-5	1-3	1-2	-1	4	2
J. DurenC · #0	18	12	6-12	—	—	-17	5	0
C. CunninghamG · #2	40	31	6-16	2-6	17-18	+6	8	11
A. ThompsonG · #9	30	12	5-8	—	2-3	-13	2	2
Bench
P. ReedF · #7	12	9	4-4	—	1-2	+13	7	1
R. Holland IIF · #5	18	2	1-7	0-2	—	+1	5	1
J. GreenG · #31	26	11	4-7	1-2	2-2	-2	2	1
M. SasserG · #25	24	18	6-10	4-6	2-2	-1	4	2
J. IveyG · #23	21	2	1-4	0-2	—	-6	1	3
Team		112	38-80	9-26	27-31		40	25
DNP: T. Smith, C. Lanier, D. Jenkins

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

DET

Home

43-99

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-80

FG %

14-39

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-26

18-20

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

27-31

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 30

DET138@

MIA135

Jan 2

MIA118@

DET112today

Mar 8

DET110@

MIA121

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

235.5

High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIA+15439%

DET-18565%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -4.5↗SpreadBet DET -4.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

235.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIA beat DET 118-112. N. Powell led the way with 36 points and 2 assists. Cade Cunningham's play in the 1st quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (26pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DET vs MIA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MIAstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

80 PTS · 38 REB · 14 AST

GS 65

Bench(5)

38 PTS · 11 REB · 11 AST

GS 32

DETstarters 63% of pts

Starters(5)

70 PTS · 21 REB · 17 AST

GS 56

Bench(5)

42 PTS · 19 REB · 8 AST

GS 35

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DET1st Quarter · 3:21 · 19-20

+26pp→ 60% WP

Cade Cunningham · lost ball turnover (Jaime Jaquez Jr. steals)

DET4th Quarter · 46.4 · 114-112

+12pp→ 24% WP

Javonte Green · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)

MIA4th Quarter · 27.6 · 116-112

+7pp→ 92% WP

Ausar Thompson · bad pass turnover (Davion Mitchell steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIA	33	30	31	24	118
DET	26	28	27	31	112

Period scoring

MIA won 3 · DET won 1

Powell 8

Robinson 7

Powell 11

Thompson 16

Powell 15

Ivey 15

Wiggins 7

Sasser 9

MIA

DET

Shooting comparison

MIA

DET

43%

43-99

48%

38-80

36%

14-39

3PT

35%

9-26

90%

18-20

87%

27-31

Play-by-play · 487 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIA 118·DET 112
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIA 118·DET 112
Q4·6.6
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
MIA 118·DET 112
Q4·8.3
Javonte Green misses driving layup
MIA 118·DET 112
−2pp
Q4·15.0
Norman Powell makes free throw 2 of 2
MIA 118·DET 112
+1pp
Q4·15.0
Norman Powell makes free throw 1 of 2
MIA 117·DET 112
Q4·15.0
Cade Cunningham personal take foulBIG MOMENT
MIA 116·DET 112
−6pp
Q4·27.6
Ausar Thompson bad pass turnover (Davion Mitchell steals)BIG MOMENT
·
MIA 116·DET 112
−7pp
Q4·28.9
Pistons Full timeout
MIA 116·DET 112
Q4·29.0
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 8-foot turnaround jump shotBIG MOMENT
MIA 116·DET 112
−9pp
Q4·46.4
Javonte Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIA 114·DET 112
+12pp
Q4·53.0
Cade Cunningham defensive rebound
MIA 114·DET 109
+1pp
Q4·55.1
Norman Powell misses driving layup
MIA 114·DET 109
+3pp
Q4·1:06
Heat Full timeout
MIA 114·DET 109
Q4·1:06
Ausar Thompson makes 1-foot running dunk (Cade Cunningham assists)
·
MIA 114·DET 109
+3pp
Q4·1:09
Bam Adebayo lost ball turnover (Cade Cunningham steals)
·
MIA 114·DET 107
+2pp
Q4·1:25
Cade Cunningham makes 28-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)
·
MIA 114·DET 107
+2pp
Q4·1:33
shot clock turnover
MIA 114·DET 104
+0.5pp
Q4·1:34
Andrew Wiggins offensive rebound
MIA 114·DET 104
Q4·1:35
Isaiah Stewart blocks Norman Powell 's 23-foot three point jumper
·
MIA 114·DET 104
Q4·1:57
Ausar Thompson makes free throw 2 of 2
MIA 114·DET 104
Q4·1:57
Pistons offensive team rebound
MIA 114·DET 103
Q4·1:57
Ausar Thompson misses free throw 1 of 2
MIA 114·DET 103
−0.7pp
Q4·1:57
Norman Powell shooting foul
MIA 114·DET 103
+0.9pp
Q4·2:18
Bam Adebayo makes free throw 2 of 2
MIA 114·DET 103
Q4·2:18
Bam Adebayo makes free throw 1 of 2
MIA 113·DET 103
Q4·2:18
Javonte Green personal foul
MIA 112·DET 103
−1pp
Q4·2:23
Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
MIA 112·DET 103
Q4·2:25
Bam Adebayo blocks Cade Cunningham's driving layup
·
MIA 112·DET 103
−1pp
Q4·2:37
Andrew Wiggins bad pass turnover (Ausar Thompson steals)
·
MIA 112·DET 103
+1pp

Betting line

DET -4.5·O/U 235.5·MIA +154/DET -185

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

iami Heat went into Detroit Pistons and beat them, 118–112.

MIA +4.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 235.5 by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Cade CunninghamDET · G
TOUCHES9799+
Jalen DurenDET · C
TS%68.898
Ausar ThompsonDET · G
DEFL3.596
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIL · F
DRIVES13.295
Andrew WigginsMIA · F
CONT7.693

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Cade CunninghamDET
26.1± 9.6high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
25.0± 4.5high
Bam AdebayoMIA
18.4± 7.8high

Rebounds

Bam AdebayoMIA
10.3± 3.7high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
9.9± 4.4high
Jalen DurenDET
9.1± 3.9high

Assists

Cade CunninghamDET
8.2± 2.8high
Davion MitchellMIA
5.9± 2.8high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
5.1± 2.6high

Blocks

Jalen DurenDET
1.0± 1.1high
Paul ReedDET
0.9± 1.3high
Andrew WigginsMIA
0.9± 0.9high

Steals

Cade CunninghamDET
1.4± 1.2high
Dru SmithMIA
1.3± 1.8high
Duncan RobinsonDET
1.2± 1.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIA

league avg

DET

54.2%

Effective FG%

54.4

54.2%

46.8%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.0%

120.9

PPG

◀

114.9

115.9

29.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

27.0

13.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR