NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+24HOU

HOU

21-10

12096

BKN

10-21

NBAThu, Jan 1FinalSeriesHOU wins series 2-0VegasHOU -13.5

HOU · top performer

Amen Thompson

G · #1

23.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

BKN · top performer

Ziaire Williams

F · #1

16.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowHOU ↔ BKN

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	37	22	8-15	2-7	4-4	+11	5	11
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	32	14	5-12	2-6	2-2	+23	6	1
T. EasonF · #17	22	15	6-7	2-2	1-2	+15	9	0
A. SengunC · #28	34	20	8-12	—	4-6	+30	6	6
A. ThompsonG · #1	32	23	10-12	2-3	1-1	+19	4	3
Bench
D. Finney-SmithF · #2	15	0	0-2	0-1	—	+5	3	1
J. TateF · #8	11	4	2-4	—	—	+3	4	1
A. HolidayG · #0	3	3	1-2	1-2	—	+5	0	1
J. OkogieG · #20	21	5	2-5	1-2	—	+4	5	2
J. DavisonG · #4	1	0	—	—	—	+5	1	1
R. SheppardG · #15	31	14	5-11	2-6	2-3	0	2	1
Team		120	47-82	12-29	14-18		45	28
DNP: J. Green, S. Adams, C. Capela

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
Z. WilliamsF · #1	27	14	3-6	2-4	6-7	-17	2	0
N. ClowneyF · #21	26	11	4-9	0-2	3-7	-19	1	0
D. WolfF · #2	29	9	4-10	1-4	—	-24	4	5
N. ClaxtonC · #33	24	11	5-10	—	1-3	-19	8	2
D. PowellG · #4	25	8	3-9	1-4	1-3	-25	0	1
Bench
J. WilsonF · #22	23	8	1-2	1-1	5-6	-7	3	0
D. SharpeC · #20	19	8	4-6	0-1	—	-2	8	7
T. MartinG · #13	18	3	1-3	1-2	—	-9	0	0
C. ThomasG · #24	23	21	8-13	3-7	2-4	+2	1	1
N. TraoreG · #88	26	3	1-8	1-5	—	0	0	2
Team		96	34-76	10-30	18-30		27	18
DNP: T. Mann, E. Demin

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

BKN

Home

47-82

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

34-76

FG %

12-29

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-30

14-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-30

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

HOU wins series 2-0

Oct 28

BKN109@

HOU137

Jan 1

HOU120@

BKN96today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -13.5

Between 10 and —

Total

217.5

Defensive · -8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

HOU-60086%

BKN+44019%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -13.5↗SpreadBet HOU -13.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

13.5

0.0 since open

Total

217.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

HOU beat BKN 120-96. A. Thompson led with 23 PTS, 4 REB, 3 AST. HOU outscored the other side 37-25 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

BKN vs HOU

Starters vs bench

production by unit

HOUstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

94 PTS · 30 REB · 21 AST

GS 86

Bench(6)

26 PTS · 15 REB · 7 AST

GS 22

BKNstarters 55% of pts

Starters(5)

53 PTS · 15 REB · 8 AST

GS 39

Bench(5)

43 PTS · 12 REB · 10 AST

GS 31

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
HOU	26	27	37	30	120
BKN	20	22	25	29	96

Period scoring

HOU won 4 · BKN won 0

Sengun 10

Williams 6

Durant 10

Sharpe 6

Thompson 12

Claxton 7

Durant 9

Thomas 8

HOU

BKN

Shooting comparison

HOU

BKN

57%

47-82

45%

34-76

41%

12-29

3PT

33%

10-30

78%

14-18

60%

18-30

Play-by-play · 440 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
HOU 120·BKN 96
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
HOU 120·BKN 96
Q4·15.5
Josh Okogie defensive rebound
HOU 120·BKN 96
Q4·19.5
Nolan Traore misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
HOU 120·BKN 96
Q4·29.1
Aaron Holiday makes 23-foot three point jumper (JD Davison assists)
·
HOU 120·BKN 96
Q4·44.6
JD Davison defensive rebound
HOU 117·BKN 96
Q4·46.8
Danny Wolf misses two point shot
HOU 117·BKN 96
Q4·1:00
Jae'Sean Tate makes two point shot
HOU 117·BKN 96
Q4·1:00
Jae'Sean Tate offensive rebound
HOU 115·BKN 96
Q4·1:04
Jabari Smith Jr. misses 24-foot three point jumper
HOU 115·BKN 96
Q4·1:28
Jalen Wilson makes free throw 2 of 2
HOU 115·BKN 96
Q4·1:28
Jalen Wilson makes free throw 1 of 2
HOU 115·BKN 95
Q4·1:28
Josh Okogie enters the game for Alperen Sengun
·
HOU 115·BKN 94
Q4·1:28
JD Davison enters the game for Tari Eason
·
HOU 115·BKN 94
Q4·1:28
Aaron Holiday enters the game for Kevin Durant
·
HOU 115·BKN 94
Q4·1:28
Jae'Sean Tate enters the game for Amen Thompson
·
HOU 115·BKN 94
Q4·1:28
Jabari Smith Jr. personal take foul
HOU 115·BKN 94
Q4·1:34
Alperen Sengun makes driving layup (Kevin Durant assists)
·
HOU 115·BKN 94
Q4·1:47
Nolan Traore out of bounds bad pass turnover
HOU 113·BKN 94
Q4·1:58
Alperen Sengun makes driving dunk (Amen Thompson assists)
·
HOU 113·BKN 94
Q4·2:07
Tari Eason defensive rebound
HOU 111·BKN 94
Q4·2:11
Drake Powell misses free throw 1 of 1
HOU 111·BKN 94
Q4·2:11
Jabari Smith Jr. enters the game for Josh Okogie
·
HOU 111·BKN 94
Q4·2:11
Josh Okogie shooting foul
HOU 111·BKN 94
Q4·2:11
Drake Powell makes 1-foot dunk (Danny Wolf assists)
·
HOU 111·BKN 94
Q4·2:12
Danny Wolf offensive rebound
HOU 111·BKN 92
Q4·2:14
Nolan Traore misses driving layup
HOU 111·BKN 92
Q4·2:31
Kevin Durant makes 25-foot three pointer
HOU 111·BKN 92
Q4·3:00
Danny Wolf makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nolan Traore assists)
·
HOU 108·BKN 92
Q4·3:09
Josh Okogie bad pass turnover (Danny Wolf steals)
·
HOU 108·BKN 89

Betting line

HOU -13.5·O/U 217.5·HOU -600/BKN +440

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ouston Rockets went into Brooklyn Nets and beat them, 120–96. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

HOU -13.5 cashed (won by 24). Total stayed UNDER 217.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599+
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.298
Alperen SengunHOU · C
CONT8.296
Ziaire WilliamsBKN · F
DEFL3.295
Nic ClaxtonCHI · C
CONT7.392

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BKN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BKN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BKN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BKN vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
Michael Porter Jr.BKN
22.7± 6.2high
Amen ThompsonHOU
20.2± 7.7high

Rebounds

Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high
Steven AdamsHOU
8.6± 2.2high
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU
7.4± 2.5high

Assists

Kevin DurantHOU
5.8± 2.2high
Amen ThompsonHOU
5.7± 2.0high
Alperen SengunHOU
5.6± 2.4high

Blocks

Alperen SengunHOU
1.1± 0.7high
Kevin DurantHOU
1.0± 1.1high
Josh MinottBKN
0.9± 1.2high

Steals

Marcus SmartHOU
2.1± 1.8high
Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high
Tari EasonHOU
1.8± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

HOU

league avg

BKN

53.7%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.0%

47.4%

FG%

◀

47.0

44.3%

114.1

PPG

◀

114.9

105.9

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

14.3

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR