NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2MIL

MIL

18-24

112110

ATL

20-25

NBAMon, Jan 19FinalSeriesMIL leads series 1-0VegasATL -1.5

MIL · top performer

Giannis Antetokounmpo

F · #34

21.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ATL · top performer

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

G · #7

28.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIL ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 23pp · 4th Quarter · 3.7

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
G. AntetokounmpoF · #34	30	21	7-12	0-1	7-12	-8	17	6
K. KuzmaF · #18	31	10	3-9	1-4	3-4	-16	1	1
M. TurnerC · #3	28	14	5-10	4-6	—	-7	8	1
A. GreenG · #20	42	18	6-12	6-12	—	+14	3	1
R. RollinsG · #13	29	14	6-12	1-4	1-2	-5	3	3
Bench
B. PortisF · #9	24	19	8-15	3-7	—	+6	3	1
P. NanceF · #35	15	5	2-3	1-1	—	+13	4	2
G. HarrisG · #11	15	2	0-1	0-1	2-2	+10	2	2
K. Porter Jr.G · #7	28	9	2-5	—	5-5	+3	6	7
Team		112	39-79	16-36	18-25		47	24
DNP: T. Antetokounmpo, J. Sims, A. Coffey, G. Trent Jr., A. Jackson Jr., C. Anthony

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
C. KispertF · #24	20	2	1-4	0-3	—	+5	1	1
O. OkongwuF · #17	34	4	0-6	0-3	4-4	-9	10	4
J. JohnsonF · #1	40	28	11-24	3-6	3-6	+16	16	6
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	39	32	9-20	7-16	7-7	-1	6	6
D. DanielsG · #5	30	17	8-16	0-2	1-1	0	9	10
Bench
M. GueyeF · #18	10	2	1-3	0-1	—	-8	3	0
A. NewellF · #14	12	6	3-5	0-1	—	-3	0	0
C. McCollumG · #3	24	17	5-11	2-4	5-6	+17	3	3
L. KennardG · #4	10	2	1-1	—	—	-19	3	1
V. KrejciG · #27	20	0	0-6	0-6	—	-8	0	2
Team		110	39-96	12-42	20-24		51	33
DNP: C. Koloko, K. Wallace, C. Houstan

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

39-79

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-96

FG %

16-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-42

18-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-24

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIL leads series 1-0

Jan 19

MIL112@

ATL110today

Mar 5

ATL131@

MIL113

Mar 14

MIL99@

ATL122

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

232.5

Standard · +6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIL+10050%

ATL-12055%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

232.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIL beat ATL 112-110. G. Antetokounmpo led with 21 PTS, 17 REB, 6 AST. MIL outscored the other side 34-19 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs MIL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MILstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

77 PTS · 32 REB · 12 AST

GS 56

Bench(4)

35 PTS · 15 REB · 12 AST

GS 37

ATLstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 42 REB · 27 AST

GS 79

Bench(5)

27 PTS · 9 REB · 6 AST

GS 18

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIL4th Quarter · 54.8 · 107-105

+18pp→ 64% WP

Bobby Portis · makes 23-foot three pointer (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)

ATL4th Quarter · 12.6 · 111-110

+18pp→ 29% WP

Nickeil Alexander-Walker · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)

MIL4th Quarter · 3.7 · 112-110

+23pp→ 93% WP

Kyle Kuzma · blocks CJ McCollum 's 21-foot fade away jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIL	20	34	26	32	112
ATL	19	19	34	38	110

Period scoring

MIL won 2 · ATL won 2

Rollins 7

Daniels 8

Green 9

McCollum 5

Turner 9

Johnson 12

Kuzma 7

Alexander-Walker 17

MIL

ATL

Shooting comparison

MIL

ATL

49%

39-79

41%

39-96

44%

16-36

3PT

29%

12-42

72%

18-25

83%

20-24

Play-by-play · 475 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIL 112·ATL 110
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIL 112·ATL 110
−2pp
Q4·1.4
Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
·
MIL 112·ATL 110
−5pp
Q4·3.7
Kyle Kuzma blocks CJ McCollum 's 21-foot fade away jump shotBIG MOMENT
·
MIL 112·ATL 110
−23pp
Q4·11.4
Ryan Rollins makes free throw 2 of 2
MIL 112·ATL 110
+1pp
Q4·11.4
Corey Kispert enters the game for Dyson Daniels
·
MIL 111·ATL 110
Q4·11.4
Bucks offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
MIL 111·ATL 110
+10pp
Q4·11.4
Ryan Rollins misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIL 111·ATL 110
+7pp
Q4·11.4
Dyson Daniels personal take foulBIG MOMENT
MIL 111·ATL 110
−17pp
Q4·12.6
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIL 111·ATL 110
+18pp
Q4·15.8
Hawks Full timeout
MIL 111·ATL 107
Q4·15.8
Kyle Kuzma makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIL 111·ATL 107
+5pp
Q4·15.8
Kyle Kuzma makes free throw 1 of 2
MIL 110·ATL 107
−1pp
Q4·15.8
Dyson Daniels personal take foulBIG MOMENT
MIL 109·ATL 107
−13pp
Q4·25.8
CJ McCollum makes 3-foot fade away jump shot (Dyson Daniels assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIL 109·ATL 107
+5pp
Q4·30.9
Hawks offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
MIL 109·ATL 105
+5pp
Q4·31.1
Kyle Kuzma blocks CJ McCollum 's 2-foot driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
·
MIL 109·ATL 105
−6pp
Q4·36.1
Kyle Kuzma enters the game for AJ Green
·
MIL 109·ATL 105
Q4·36.1
Hawks Full timeout
MIL 109·ATL 105
Q4·36.1
Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 1-foot layup (Bobby Portis assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
MIL 109·ATL 105
−7pp
Q4·40.8
Jalen Johnson lost ball turnover (Ryan Rollins steals)BIG MOMENT
·
MIL 107·ATL 105
−13pp
Q4·54.8
Bobby Portis makes 23-foot three pointer (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
MIL 107·ATL 105
−18pp
Q4·1:10
Jalen Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIL 104·ATL 105
+18pp
Q4·1:29
AJ Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIL 104·ATL 102
−18pp
Q4·1:38
CJ McCollum makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIL 101·ATL 102
−8pp
Q4·1:38
CJ McCollum makes free throw 1 of 2
MIL 101·ATL 101
+2pp
Q4·1:38
Giannis Antetokounmpo personal foulBIG MOMENT
·
MIL 101·ATL 100
+14pp
Q4·1:46
Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
MIL 101·ATL 100
+3pp
Q4·1:49
Giannis Antetokounmpo misses 13-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
·
MIL 101·ATL 100
+7pp
Q4·1:56
Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
·
MIL 101·ATL 100

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 232.5·MIL +100/ATL -120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ilwaukee Bucks went into Atlanta Hawks and beat them, 112–110. Decided by 2.

MIL +1.5 cashed (ATL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 232.5 by 10.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA · F
USG%36.699+
Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.299
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.299
Ryan RollinsMIL · G
DEFL4.098
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
TOUCHES79.397

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIL

league avg

ATL

56.5%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

55.1%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

47.2%

110.6

PPG

114.9

▶

117.2

25.8

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.6

14.5

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR