MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4MIL

PHI

38-33

MIL

43-26

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin

40,131 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

MIL no-vig %

48.3%

open 48.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.8%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
58.8%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.4%
P(MIL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.4%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.23 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.31

CLV pp

Open price

-102

Close price

-101

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

47.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+13.8pp

best edge · MIL · DraftKings

PHI

no live price

MIL

★ best

+108DraftKings

edge +13.8pp · implied 45.9%

Book	PHI	MIL	Best edge
DraftKings	-131	+108★	+13.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIL vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 96 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.6± 3.1low
Cristopher SanchezPHI
8.1± 3.4low
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.3± 5.5low

Hits

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.6± 1.4high
Christian YelichMIL
1.2± 0.8high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

Jackson ChourioMIL
3.2± 3.5high
Jake BauersMIL
2.1± 2.3high
Brandon MarshPHI
2.1± 2.2high

RBIs

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.1± 1.6high
Jake BauersMIL
1.1± 1.5high
Alec BohmPHI
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.7± 2.9low
Aaron NolaPHI
3.5± 2.6low
Robert GasserMIL
3.3± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

MIL

.681

OPS

.716

▶

.734

.296

OBP

.319

▶

.340

4.01

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.36

4.11

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.45

1.30

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.21

9.4

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

PHI 0 · MIL 4 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
MIL	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
K. SchwarberDH	.247	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. TurnerSS	.219	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Harper1B	.256	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Bohm3B	.219	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. MarshLF	.322	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. Sosa2B	.221	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Stott2B	.232	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. MarchanC	.099	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. HillRF	.216	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. CrawfordCF	.231	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
G. StubbsC	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	0	4	0	0	0	6

Player

AVG

RBI

.247

.219

.256

.219

.322

.221

.232

.099

.216

.231

.200

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. SanchezSP	5.2	8	4	4	1	3	98
C. ShugartRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	20
T. BanksRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	22
Team	8.0	10	4	4	1	5	140

Player

C. SanchezSP

5.2

C. ShugartRP

1.1

T. BanksRP

1.0

Team

8.0

140

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. ChourioLF	.322	4	1	2	1	1	0	0
A. Vaughn1B	.354	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
W. ContrerasC	.295	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
G. SanchezDH	.227	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
L. Rengifo3B	.205	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
G. MitchellCF	.246	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. PerkinsCF	.133	4	1	2	3	1	0	1
J. OrtizSS	.207	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. HamiltonSS	.231	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team		33	4	10	4	2	1	5

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
K. HarrisonSP	6.0	3	0	0	0	3	80
A. UribeRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	22
A. AshbyRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	3	27
Team	9.0	4	0	0	0	6	129

Team

PHI

MIL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

MIL vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

MIL vs PHI.

3 sub-models, blended.