
SEA
37-36

WSH
37-35
Line movement
200 snapshots
WSH spread
+1.5
open +1.5
Total
O/U 10.0
open O/U 9.5 · +0.5
WSH no-vig %
43.7%
open 42.8% · +0.9
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Matchup · 2026
MLB Stats API
SEA
league avg
WSH
.713
OPS
.716
▶.745
.316
OBP
.319
▶.323
4.26
Runs / G
4.50
▶5.44
3.69
Team ERA
4.17
4.66
1.20
WHIP
1.31
1.38
8.7
K / 9
8.5
7.7
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
WSH wins
SEA 1 · WSH 10 (by 9)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked WSH +0pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| WSH | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
On the call · MLB
4 officials
Home Plate Umpire
Alex Tosi
First Base Umpire
Willie Traynor
Second Base Umpire
Cory Blaser
Third Base Umpire
Jansen Visconti
Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.
Line shopping · 1 book
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
SEA
no live price
WSH
no live price
| Book | SEA | WSH | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -114 | -114 | +1.3 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Recap · MLB
ashington Nationals held off Seattle Mariners, 10–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
WSH +1.5 cashed (SEA lost outright). Total cleared the 10.5 OVER by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
SEA · top performer

Josh Naylor
1B
3-1
AB-H
0
R
0
RBI
WSH · top performer

James Wood
RF
4-3
AB-H
2
R
2
RBI
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST
| Player | AVG | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .260 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .248 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .253 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .241 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .286 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .279 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .188 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .270 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .237 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .122 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 31 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 59 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 18 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | |
| 0.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | |
| Team | 8.0 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 124 |
| Player | AVG | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .281 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| .259 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .193 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .290 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .282 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| .262 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .201 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .242 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .237 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 38 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | |
| 7.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 83 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 108 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantSEA
WSH
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
5
Hits
14
1
Runs
10
1
Errors
2
Current series
WSH wins series 2-1
Season series
WSH wins series 2-1
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
SEA -1.5
Total
10.5
High-scoring · +2.0 vs avg
0.5pt· 6.5h
Moneyline
4· 6.5h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
10.5
+0.5 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 1st Inning
J. Naylor
1BBatter of the game
1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS
E. Hancock
SPStarting pitcher
4.0 IP · 2 K · 6 ER · 9 H
J. Wood
RFBatter of the gamePerfect day
3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.300 OPS
M. Mikolas
SPTop relieverGem
7.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 3 H
How it ended
WSH beat SEA 10-1.
Win probability
WSH vs SEA
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactNaylor · doubled to center, Young scored on fielding error by center fielder Young.
Wood · homered to right center (413 feet).
Lile · doubled to right, Abrams scored, Ruiz to third.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| WSH | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | — | 10 |
Period scoring
SEA won 0 · WSH won 3
Inn 1
Naylor 1
Wood 1
Inn 2
Inn 3
Inn 4
Ruiz 1
Inn 5
Inn 6
Inn 7
Ruiz 1
Inn 8
Young 1
Inn 9
Play-by-play · 490 plays
·
SEA 1·WSH 10
Raley struck out looking.
·
SEA 1·WSH 10
Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking
·
SEA 1·WSH 10
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging
·
SEA 1·WSH 10
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging
·
SEA 1·WSH 10
Clayton Beeter pitches to Luke Raley
·
SEA 1·WSH 10
·
SEA 1·WSH 10
Wisdom flied out to right.
·
SEA 1·WSH 10
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
·
SEA 1·WSH 10
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
·
SEA 1·WSH 10
Clayton Beeter pitches to Patrick Wisdom
·
SEA 1·WSH 10
·
SEA 1·WSH 10
Rodríguez struck out swinging.
·
SEA 1·WSH 10
Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
SEA 1·WSH 10
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul
·
SEA 1·WSH 10
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
·
SEA 1·WSH 10
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging
·
SEA 1·WSH 10
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
SEA 1·WSH 10
Clayton Beeter pitches to Julio Rodriguez
·
SEA 1·WSH 10
Beeter relieved Mikolas
·
SEA 1·WSH 10
Top of the 9th inning
SEA 1·WSH 10
End of the 8th inning
SEA 1·WSH 10
·
SEA 1·WSH 10
Abrams lined out to left.
·
SEA 1·WSH 10
Pitch 6 : Ball In Play
·
SEA 1·WSH 10
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
·
SEA 1·WSH 10
Pitch 4 : Ball 2
·
SEA 1·WSH 10
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
·
SEA 1·WSH 10
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking
·
SEA 1·WSH 10
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
SEA 1·WSH 10
Team stats
SEA
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
1
Runs
10
5
Hits
14
1
Errors
2
6
TB
25
0
HR
2
0
BB
2
5
K
8
8
LOB
16
Betting line
SEA -1.5·O/U 10.5·SEA -132/WSH +109
The receipts
+0.85
CLV pp
Open price
+123
Close price
+119
Open no-vig
42.8%
Close no-vig
43.7%
Market came to the model · Graded: hit
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 83 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
48.6%
ensemble · SEA favored
Elo Static
50.1%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.9%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.08 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.