HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
Live · 9
  • MLBTop 9
    ARI 4@CIN 3
    -50.9pplow
  • MLBTop 9
    STL 4@MIN 5
    +52.5pplow
  • MLBTop 3
    TB 0@LAA 1
    +29.3pphigh
  • MLBTop 9
    LAD 4@CHW 6
    +53.1pplow
  • MLBTop 5
    COL 9@ATH 6
    -65.7pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    CHC 0@SF 3
    +44.2pplow
  • MLBMid 9
    NYY 8@TOR 3
    -33.9pplow
  • WNBA8:19 - 4th
    ATL 76@TOR 64
    -32.9ppmedium
  • WNBA8:53 - 4th
    WSH 50@NY 65
    +20.3pplow
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THE ONE Analytics
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MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+9WSH
SEA

SEA

37-36

1
10
WSH

WSH

37-35

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
27,264 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

WSH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 9.5 · +0.5

WSH no-vig %

43.7%

open 42.8% · +0.9

+2.0+1.0WSH SPREADO/U 10.5O/U 9.0TOTAL47.7%38.8%WSH NO-VIG %Jun 13, 5 PMJun 14, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

SEA

league avg

WSH

WSH

.713

OPS

.716

▶

.745

.316

OBP

.319

▶

.323

4.26

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.44

3.69

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.66

1.20

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.38

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

SEA 1 · WSH 10 (by 9)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked WSH +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA1000000001
WSH1005001310

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

65%Last 7 · 68-36
61%Last 30 · 303-197
Receipts →

On the call · MLB

4 officials

Home Plate Umpire

Alex Tosi

First Base Umpire

Willie Traynor

Second Base Umpire

Cory Blaser

Third Base Umpire

Jansen Visconti

Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

SEA

no live price

WSH

no live price

BookSEAWSHBest edge
DraftKings-114-114+1.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Sun, Jun 14·Final/SeriesWSH wins series 2-1/VegasSEA -132

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals held off Seattle Mariners, 10–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

WSH +1.5 cashed (SEA lost outright). Total cleared the 10.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1E. HancockSEA−42.0pp
  2. 2K. RuizWSH+19.1pp
  3. 3C. AbramsWSH+18.9pp

SEA · top performer

SEA
Josh Naylor

Josh Naylor

1B

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
James Wood

James Wood

RF

2.300OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
C. Young2B
.2604110001
J. RodriguezCF
.2484000001
J. Naylor1B
.2533010000
L. RaleyRF
.2414000001
D. CanzoneDH
.2863010000
V. RoblesRF
.2793010000
M. Mastrobuoni3B
.1883000001
J. PeredaC
.2703000001
C. Emerson3B
.2373010000
- P. Wisdom3B
.1221000000
Team31150005

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
E. HancockSP
4.09660259
J. FerrerRP
1.01000110
N. DavilaRP
1.01001218
M. RuckerRP
1.01110213
A. MunozRP
0.0122109
A. HoppeRP
1.01110115
Team8.014101028124

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodRF
.2814232110
L. Garcia Jr.1B
.2595010002
D. CrewsRF
.1935111000
C. AbramsSS
.2905110001
K. RuizC
.2824232100
D. LileLF
.2624111001
N. Nunez2B
.2014112002
J. Vivas3B
.2423111011
J. YoungCF
.2374121001
Team38101410228

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
P. PoulinRP
1.02110015
M. MikolasSP
7.03000383
C. BeeterRP
1.00000210
Team9.051105108

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SEA

  • E. Hancock
    59 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      46%·95.6 mph·13% whiff
    • FF
      31%·96.8 mph·10% whiff
    • FC
      8%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      7%·76.9 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      2%·80.1 mph·— whiff
  • N. Davila
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      67%·88.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      22%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·95.6 mph·— whiff
  • A. Hoppe
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • SL
      53%·88.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      47%·97.4 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Rucker
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • FC
      46%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      31%·83.5 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      23%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Munoz
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      67%·86.9 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      22%·98.6 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      11%·99.4 mph·— whiff

WSH

  • M. Mikolas
    83 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      30%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      16%·77.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      10%·83.8 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      7%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Poulin
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • ST
      47%·79.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      33%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Beeter
    10 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      60%·95.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      40%·85.9 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

14

1

Runs

10

1

Errors

2

Current series

WSH wins series 2-1

Jun 12SEASEA10@WSHWSH2
Jun 13SEASEA3@WSHWSH8
Jun 14SEASEA1@WSHWSH10today

Season series

WSH wins series 2-1

Jun 12SEASEA10@WSHWSH2
Jun 13SEASEA3@WSHWSH8
Jun 14SEASEA1@WSHWSH10today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

Total

10.5

High-scoring · +2.0 vs avg

↗0.5pt· 6.5h

Moneyline

SEASEA-13257%
WSHWSH+10948%

↘4· 6.5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

10.5

+0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 1st Inning

SEASEA
J. Naylor

J. Naylor

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

E. Hancock

E. Hancock

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 2 K · 6 ER · 9 H

WSHWSH
J. Wood

J. Wood

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.300 OPS

M. Mikolas

M. Mikolas

SP

Top relieverGem

7.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 3 H

How it ended

WSH beat SEA 10-1.

Win probability

WSH vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEATop 1st Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 54% WP

Naylor · doubled to center, Young scored on fielding error by center fielder Young.

WSHBottom 1st Inning · 1-1
+14pp→ 63% WP

Wood · homered to right center (413 feet).

WSHBottom 4th Inning · 1-3
+11pp→ 90% WP

Lile · doubled to right, Abrams scored, Ruiz to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA1000000001
WSH10050013—10

Period scoring

SEA won 0 · WSH won 3

1
1

Inn 1

Naylor 1

Wood 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
5

Inn 4

Ruiz 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Ruiz 1

0
3

Inn 8

Young 1

0

Inn 9

SEA
WSH

Play-by-play · 490 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    SEA 1·WSH 10

  2. T9

    Raley struck out looking.

    ·

    SEA 1·WSH 10

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    SEA 1·WSH 10

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 1·WSH 10

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 1·WSH 10

  6. T9

    Clayton Beeter pitches to Luke Raley

    ·

    SEA 1·WSH 10

  7. T9

    ·

    SEA 1·WSH 10

  8. T9

    Wisdom flied out to right.

    ·

    SEA 1·WSH 10

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 1·WSH 10

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SEA 1·WSH 10

  11. T9

    Clayton Beeter pitches to Patrick Wisdom

    ·

    SEA 1·WSH 10

  12. T9

    ·

    SEA 1·WSH 10

  13. T9

    Rodríguez struck out swinging.

    ·

    SEA 1·WSH 10

  14. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 1·WSH 10

  15. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 1·WSH 10

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 1·WSH 10

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 1·WSH 10

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 1·WSH 10

  19. T9

    Clayton Beeter pitches to Julio Rodriguez

    ·

    SEA 1·WSH 10

  20. T9

    Beeter relieved Mikolas

    ·

    SEA 1·WSH 10

  21. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    SEA 1·WSH 10

  22. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    SEA 1·WSH 10

  23. B8

    ·

    SEA 1·WSH 10

  24. B8

    Abrams lined out to left.

    ·

    SEA 1·WSH 10

  25. B8

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 1·WSH 10

  26. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 1·WSH 10

  27. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 1·WSH 10

  28. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 1·WSH 10

  29. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 1·WSH 10

  30. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 1·WSH 10

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

1

Runs

10

5

Hits

14

1

Errors

2

6

TB

25

0

HR

2

0

BB

2

5

K

8

8

LOB

16

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 10.5·SEA -132/WSH +109

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.85

CLV pp

Open price

+123

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Player projections

WSH vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Bryce MillerSEA
    6.0± 3.0low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 3.5medium
  • Bryan WooSEA
    5.8± 4.0low

Hits

  • Cole YoungSEA
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Daylen LileWSH
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Jhonny PeredaSEA
    1.1± 0.7medium

Total bases

  • Colt EmersonSEA
    2.1± 1.8high
  • Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
    2.1± 2.6high
  • Dominic CanzoneSEA
    2.0± 2.8high

RBIs

  • Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
    1.0± 1.8high
  • Colt EmersonSEA
    0.7± 0.8high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Bryan WooSEA
    3.1± 3.9low
  • George KirbySEA
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Luis CastilloSEA
    2.6± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.6%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    50.1%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    49.9%

    P(WSH win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.0%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.08 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.