MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3SD

37-33

BAL

34-39

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

20,611 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BAL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

BAL no-vig %

54.3%

open 54.2%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.3%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
48.6%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
46.5%
P(BAL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.2%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.51 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.08

CLV pp

Open price

+109

Close price

+109

Open no-vig

45.8%

Close no-vig

45.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

BAL vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

Kyle BradishBAL
5.2± 3.1low
Michael KingSD
5.2± 2.9low
Griffin CanningSD
4.9± 2.2low

Hits

Samad TaylorSD
1.3± 1.3low
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.2± 1.2high
Adley RutschmanBAL
1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

Pete AlonsoBAL
2.2± 2.4high
Adley RutschmanBAL
1.9± 2.9high
Samad TaylorSD
1.9± 2.8low

RBIs

Adley RutschmanBAL
1.1± 1.6high
Samad TaylorSD
1.1± 1.8low
Pete AlonsoBAL
0.9± 0.9high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.8± 3.1low
Trevor RogersBAL
3.7± 2.4low
Trey GibsonBAL
2.8± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

BAL

.658

OPS

.716

▶

.728

.293

OBP

.319

▶

.324

3.89

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.70

3.91

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.59

1.29

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

8.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 5 · BAL 2 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	0	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	5
BAL	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.282	4	0	2	2	0	0	0
J. MerrillCF	.207	5	0	2	0	0	0	0
M. Machado3B	.175	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
X. BogaertsSS	.228	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
G. Sheets1B	.232	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
S. TaylorLF	.357	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
N. Solak1B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. BowenCF	.120	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
R. DuranC	.176	4	2	2	3	1	0	0
W. Wagner3B	.444	1	2	0	0	0	1	0
Team		34	5	8	5	1	4	7

Player

AVG

RBI

.282

.207

.175

.228

.232

.357

.250

.120

.176

.444

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
W. BuehlerSP	5.0	6	1	1	0	5	86
B. RodriguezRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	20
J. AdamRP	0.1	2	1	1	0	0	8
A. MorejonRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	13
M. MillerRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	3	18
Team	9.0	10	2	2	1	10	145

Player

5.0

1.0

0.1

1.1

1.1

Team

9.0

145

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. WardLF	.258	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
G. HendersonSS	.227	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
A. RutschmanC	.265	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
P. Alonso1B	.253	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
S. BasalloC	.258	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. TaverasCF	.259	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. CowserRF	.223	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Jackson2B	.257	2	1	1	1	1	0	1
B. Alexander3B	.303	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
C. Mayo3B	.194	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Holliday2B	.197	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		35	2	10	2	1	1	10

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
T. RogersSP	6.0	5	2	2	2	4	82
R. GarciaRP	1.0	1	2	2	1	1	19
A. NunezRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	23
Y. CanoRP	1.0	1	1	0	0	2	25
Team	9.0	8	5	4	4	7	149

Team

BAL

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

BAL vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BAL vs SD.

3 sub-models, blended.