MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2MIA

MIA

36-36

PIT

36-36

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

18,127 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PIT spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

PIT no-vig %

60.0%

open 59.3% · +0.7

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.3%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
45.5%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
45.3%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
45.7%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.16 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+135

Close price

+135

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

MIA

no live price

PIT

no live price

Book	MIA	PIT	Best edge
DraftKings	-167	+127	+1.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

PIT vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
6.8± 3.2low
Max MeyerMIA
6.4± 1.9low
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.4± 2.9low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.6± 0.8high
Jake MangumPIT
1.1± 1.1high
Liam HicksMIA
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Otto LopezMIA
2.3± 1.8high
Brandon LowePIT
1.8± 1.8high
Heriberto HernandezMIA
1.7± 2.4high

RBIs

Kyle StowersMIA
0.7± 1.0high
Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.1high
Esmerlyn ValdezPIT
0.7± 1.7low

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 3.0low
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.3± 3.0medium
Bubba ChandlerPIT
2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

PIT

.706

OPS

.716

▶

.737

.323

OBP

.319

▶

.335

4.31

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.99

4.07

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.22

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

8.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

MIA 4 · PIT 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIA +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	4
PIT	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
L. HicksC	.277	3	1	2	0	0	2	0
O. LopezSS	.343	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
K. StowersLF	.215	5	0	1	1	0	0	2
X. Edwards2B	.299	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
H. HernandezLF	.237	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
O. CaissieRF	.212	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. MarseeCF	.200	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. MackC	.240	3	1	1	1	1	1	0
C. Norby1B	.212	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
E. RuizRF	.228	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Sanoja3B	.253	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	4	9	4	2	3	12

Player

AVG

RBI

.277

.343

.215

.299

.237

.212

.200

.240

.212

.228

.253

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
M. MeyerSP	6.0	6	1	1	3	9	105
C. FaucherRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16
T. ZuberRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16
P. FairbanksRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	14
Team	9.0	8	2	2	3	12	151

Player

M. MeyerSP

6.0

105

C. FaucherRP

1.0

T. ZuberRP

1.0

P. FairbanksRP

1.0

Team

9.0

151

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. Horwitz1B	.281	4	0	0	0	0	1	4
B. Lowe2B	.240	5	0	0	0	0	0	3
B. ReynoldsLF	.270	3	1	2	1	1	2	0
R. O'HearnRF	.275	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. Gonzales3B	.301	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
T. CallihanLF	.348	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. MangumLF	.302	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
J. TrioloSS	.227	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
H. DavisC	.135	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. RodriguezC	.226	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	2	8	2	1	3	12

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
P. SkenesSP	6.0	4	2	2	1	10	104
E. SiskRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16
B. BidoisRP	0.2	4	2	2	0	1	21
I. MattsonRP	1.1	0	0	0	2	1	27
Team	9.0	9	4	4	3	12	168

Team

MIA

PIT

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

PIT vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PIT vs MIA.

3 sub-models, blended.