MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5MIA

MIA

35-35

PIT

35-35

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

19,587 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PIT spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.0 · +0.5

PIT no-vig %

57.3%

open 56.3% · +1.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.2%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
45.3%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
46.5%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
45.8%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.49 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.07

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+16.8pp

best edge · MIA · DraftKings

MIA

★ best

+128DraftKings

edge +16.8pp · implied 41.2%

PIT

no live price

Book	MIA	PIT	Best edge
DraftKings	+128★	-167	+16.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

PIT vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
6.8± 3.2low
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.6± 2.7low
Max MeyerMIA
6.4± 1.9low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.6± 1.1high
Jake MangumPIT
1.2± 1.2high
Nick GonzalesPIT
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

Otto LopezMIA
2.3± 2.0high
Spencer HorwitzPIT
2.0± 2.1high
Tyler CallihanPIT
1.9± 3.7low

RBIs

Brandon LowePIT
0.8± 1.1high
Esmerlyn ValdezPIT
0.8± 1.8low
Tyler CallihanPIT
0.8± 1.9low

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 3.0low
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.3± 3.6low
Bubba ChandlerPIT
2.7± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

PIT

.707

OPS

.715

▶

.739

.324

OBP

.319

▶

.334

4.34

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.06

4.11

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.26

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

8.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

MIA 8 · PIT 3 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIA +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	2	0	8
PIT	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
L. HicksC	.274	4	3	3	2	1	1	0
O. LopezSS	.342	5	1	1	1	0	0	0
K. StowersLF	.220	4	1	2	1	0	1	0
X. Edwards2B	.304	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
H. HernandezLF	.236	4	1	2	1	0	1	1
O. CaissieRF	.214	5	0	1	2	0	0	1
J. MarseeCF	.202	4	0	0	0	0	1	3
J. MackC	.237	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. Sanoja3B	.262	3	2	1	0	0	1	0
E. RuizRF	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	8	11	8	1	6	7

Player

AVG

RBI

.274

.342

.220

.304

.236

.214

.202

.237

.262

.200

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
S. AlcantaraSP	8.0	5	3	3	1	7	102
J. KingRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	18
Team	9.0	6	3	3	1	9	120

Player

S. AlcantaraSP

8.0

102

J. KingRP

1.0

Team

9.0

120

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. Horwitz1B	.286	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Lowe2B	.249	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
B. ReynoldsLF	.265	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. O'HearnRF	.278	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Gonzales3B	.301	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. CallihanLF	.313	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
E. RodriguezC	.240	4	2	2	1	1	0	1
J. MangumLF	.290	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. TrioloSS	.232	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
E. ValdezOF	.105	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	3	6	3	2	1	9

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
B. AshcraftSP	5.0	5	2	2	2	4	90
W. DotelRP	1.2	4	4	4	3	2	37
A. KellySP	2.1	2	2	2	1	1	33
Team	9.0	11	8	8	6	7	160

Team

MIA

PIT

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

PIT vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PIT vs MIA.

3 sub-models, blended.