MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6CHC

CHC

35-34

COL

26-43

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado

35,128 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 11.0

open O/U 11.5 · -0.5

COL no-vig %

41.7%

open 41.7%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.0%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
41.1%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
40.7%
P(COL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
41.9%
P(COL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.50 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+25.6pp

best edge · COL · DraftKings

CHC

no live price

COL

★ best

+550DraftKings

edge +25.6pp · implied 14.4%

Book	CHC	COL	Best edge
DraftKings	-1040	+550★	+25.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

COL vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

Shota ImanagaCHC
5.3± 3.7low
Edward CabreraCHC
4.9± 2.7low
Michael LorenzenCOL
4.0± 1.9medium

Hits

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.3± 1.1high
Troy JohnstonCOL
1.3± 1.0high
Jake McCarthyCOL
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

Cole CarriggCOL
2.7± 3.4low
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.5± 2.9high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.3± 2.1high

RBIs

Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.1high
Jake McCarthyCOL
0.7± 1.2high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.1± 3.5low
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.9± 2.8medium
Edward CabreraCHC
3.2± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHC

league avg

COL

.722

OPS

.715

.332

OBP

◀

.319

4.59

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.24

4.30

Team ERA

◀

4.17

5.55

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.51

8.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

CHC 9 · COL 3 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHC	0	0	0	4	2	0	2	1	0	9
COL	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.257	5	2	2	0	0	0	0
A. Bregman3B	.246	4	2	1	2	1	1	1
M. Busch1B	.251	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
I. HappLF	.231	3	1	1	1	0	1	1
S. SuzukiRF	.248	4	1	1	4	1	0	2
N. Hoerner2B	.247	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. BallesterosDH	.240	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. KellyC	.282	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
D. SwansonSS	.178	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
M. ShawRF	.237	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		35	9	10	9	3	3	8

Player

AVG

RBI

.257

.246

.251

.231

.248

.247

.240

.282

.178

.237

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
E. CabreraSP	5.1	5	2	2	2	5	83
H. MilnerRP	0.1	2	0	0	0	0	10
P. MatonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	8
R. RolisonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	17
T. FergusonRP	1.1	3	1	1	0	3	26
Team	9.0	12	3	3	2	11	144

Player

5.1

0.1

1.0

1.0

1.1

Team

9.0

144

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
E. Julien2B	.227	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
W. Castro2B	.269	5	0	2	0	0	0	0
T. Rumfield1B	.270	3	0	1	0	0	2	1
H. GoodmanC	.244	5	0	0	0	0	0	3
T. JohnstonRF	.315	4	0	3	0	0	0	0
C. CarriggOF	.273	4	1	2	1	1	0	1
S. ThompsonRF	.229	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. TovarSS	.211	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
B. SullivanC	.231	4	2	3	2	2	0	0
K. Karros3B	.226	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	3	12	3	3	2	11

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
R. FeltnerSP	4.1	4	6	6	3	3	75
B. CastanoRP	2.2	5	2	2	0	2	46
S. PeraltaRP	2.0	1	1	1	0	3	26
Team	9.0	10	9	9	3	8	147

Team

CHC

COL

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

COL vs CHC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

COL vs CHC.

3 sub-models, blended.